The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 13 NFL slate.
We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Lamar Jackson projects for the highest ceiling this week, in what looks to be a traditional AFC North matchup, with a 44-point total. Despite the lower total, Jackson should benefit from what looks like an ideal matchup, facing a Pittsburgh Steelers defense ranked 27th in DVOA (Per Football Outsiders). The Ravens’ offense is designed around the dual-threat ability of Jackson, given his rushing upside, leading the Baltimore backfield with a 37% share of carries, averaging 5.75 yards per carry.
Per the Trends tool, Jackson averages 26.16 actual DraftKings points and a +3.32 Plus/Minus in matchups with a total above 44 points, facing a team from the AFC North. This week, Jackson should be considered in roster construction, given his versatile ability to keep the Ravens moving the ball, equating to a 75th-percentile outcome every week.
Top Value: Derek Carr vs. Washington Football Team – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
With a game total of 49.5 points, the Week 13 matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Football Team looks to have shootout potential. Derek Carr rates as a top value play this week, given a discounted $6,000 price tag on DraftKings, combined with his tendencies to run one of the more pass-friendly offenses in the league. This year, the Raiders have deployed a 63%/37% pass-to-run play-calling ratio and look to have a more favorable matchup, facing a Bengals defense ranked 19th in pass DVOA.
A likely outcome to this matchup signals an increase of passing from both Carr and Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke who faces a Raiders defense that also has a tough time defending the pass. With injuries to the Raiders receiving corps, including primary target Darren Waller, Carr also benefits from discounted options for stacking, especially in Foster Moreau. Expect Carr to potentially reach fantasy relevance, given the likely volume and potential “back-and-forth” game script.
Top Rostered: Tom Brady vs. Atlanta Falcons – $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
Projected for 15% ownership, Tom Brady looks to be a popular option for rosters this week. The Buccaneers are the most pass-heavy team in the league, calling a 66%/34% pass-to-run play calling ratio (per RotoViz), partly due to the high-powered receiving corps of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, who should all expect an uptick in targets, given the suspension of Antonio Brown. Brady leads a Buccaneers offense ranked third overall (per PFF) and faces a weak Falcons defense, ranked 29th in DVOA. With the popularity of Brady and stacking pieces, roster construction may have to take a more contrarian slant to be competitive.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Taylor vs. Houston Texans – $9,200 on DraftKings, $10,500 on FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor has completely dominated this season and has emerged as one of the top backs in the league. In every game this season, Taylor has had more than 10 rushing attempts, averaging 5.77 yards per carry and leads all running backs in touchdowns (14). Taylor should have an easy time this week and should see a full allotment of carries against a Texans defense ranked 25th in rush DVOA.
The Colts are a 7-point road favorite against the Texans, which may signal additional opportunity for the slate-breaking back to reach a 75th-percentile outcome, likely eclipsing the 100-yard rushing bonus and likely touchdown upside.
Top Value: Antonio Gibson vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
In the past three weeks, Antonio Gibson has seen an exponential increase in volume, with rushes of 24, 19 and 29, averaging 3.75 yards per carry, with two touchdowns. With a 56% share of carries in the backfield, Gibson can reach fantasy relevance likely through volume alone. Las Vegas ranks 17th in rush DVOA and likely will have a challenging time stopping the second-year back. Aside from the rushing volume, look for Gibson to play a role in the Washington pass game, adding to his upside. Players who chose to roster Gibson should consider finding correlated pieces in bring-back stacks or mini correlations.
Top Rostered: Eli Mitchell vs. Seattle Seahawks – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
Projected for 32% ownership this week, San Francisco 49ers running back Eli Mitchell should be a popular choice to fill this week’s running back position. Despite a tough matchup, facing a Seahawks defense ranked 11th in rush DVOA, Mitchell looks to play an integral role in the 49ers’ offense.
With Deebo Samuel likely out of Sunday’s NFC West matchup, Mitchell should firmly remain the top running back option, seeing 60% of the share of carries in the backfield, including two 27 rushing attempt games, averaging 4.15 yards per carry and finding the end zone once. Returning from injury in Week 12, Mitchell also caught five passes for 35 yards and if the trend continues, look for Mitchell to increase his upside as a must-have option.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Cooper Kupp vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
It seems the talk surrounding Cooper Kupp has quieted in the past few weeks. However, Kupp projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers this week, in what looks to be an absolute smash spot, facing a Jaguars defense ranked last in pass DVOA. Despite the addition of Odell Beckham Jr., Kupp continues to see 10 or more targets and remains the first-look option for quarterback Matthew Stafford. Averaging 13.4 yards per reception, with 10 touchdowns on the ceiling, look for Kupp to likely have a 75th-percentile outcome, given the ideal matchup and established rapport with Stafford.
Top Value: Hunter Renfroe vs. Washington Football Team – $6,800 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
With news of tight end Darren Waller likely out of Sunday’s matchup against the Washington Football Team, wide receiver Hunter Renfroe projects as a top value among the position this week. This year, Renfroe is second on the Raiders’ receiving corps with a 20% target share and should see an uptick in production, with Waller’s 23% target share needing to go somewhere. With a decimated Raiders receiving corps, Renfroe, alongside tight end Foster Moreau, should be the primary looks for quarterback Derek Carr and, given the salary relief, gives rosters a high-upside stack which also allows for higher-priced options as fillers or mini-correlation choices.
Top Rostered: Chris Godwin vs. Atlanta Falcons – $6,600 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
Cooper Kupp and Hunter Renfroe project for the top two most rostered options this week, but at 21% projected ownership, Chris Godwin should also appear frequently in lineups. Despite a lackluster four-reception, 24-yard performance in a Week 12 38-31 win over the Indianapolis Colts, players should “go back to the well” with Godwin as an ideal stacking option with either Tom Brady or a bring-back option for Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. With Antonio Brown suspended for three-game, Godwin should firmly remain the Buccaneers leader in target share, seeing 19% of the looks from Brady in a hyper-distributed receiving corps.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: George Kittle vs. Seattle Seahawks – $5,900 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
Without Travis Kelce or Darren Waller on the slate the Week, George Kittle projects for the highest ceiling on the week. With Deebo Samuel likely out for the Week 13 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, Kittle, who is second in target share with a 21% share of looks from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, should absorb a majority of looks, increasing his upside to reach a 75th-percentile outcome. This season, Kittle has seen five or more targets in five of his first eight games, including a 10-target, four reception for 40-yard performance against the Seahawks in Week 4. Seattle ranks 27th in pass DVOA, giving the 49ers’ receiving corp an ideal matchup to exceed expectations.
Top Value: James O’Shaughnessy vs. Los Angeles Rams – $3,000 on DraftKings, $4,500 on FanDuel
With Jacksonville Jaguars’ tight end Dan Arnold likely to miss extended time, James O’Shaughnessy should step into the starting role. Given the $3,000 price tag on DraftKings, it should give lineups additional salary relief and could be a pivot from the likely chalk of Foster Moreau. Arnold is responsible for 14% of the Jaguars target share, which would likely go toward O’Shaughnessy, allowing him to reach fantasy relevance solely on volume. However, a more difficult matchup against a Rams defense ranked ninth in DVOA.
Top Rostered: Foster Moreau vs. Washington Football Team – $2,700 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
With Darren Waller likely out for the Sunday matchup against the Washington Football Team, backup tight end Foster Moreau looks to be the most popular option at the tight end position and likely the most popular option among all skill players this week. Projected for more than 40% ownership this week, Moreau gives rosters a deep salary relief, with a $2,700 price tag on DraftKings, and should assume the role left by Waller. Washington ranks 30th in pass DVOA, which should signal additional opportunity for the backup and looks to be the first choice in stacking with Derek Carr.
