The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 11 NFL slate.
We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Chicago Bears – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Lamar Jackson projects for the highest ceiling among quarterbacks this week. Jackson looks to have an ideal matchup, facing a Chicago Bears defense ranked 22nd in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). As a dual-threat option, capable of moving the offense down the field through the air and with his running ability, Jackson should keep the Bears defense guessing while also likely controlling the clock.
The Ravens rank as the fifth-slowest-paced team in the league, averaging a play every 28.1 seconds (per RotoViz), and as a 5.5-point favorite, look for Lamar to employ a clock-killing play-calling scheme, increasing their balanced 55%/45% pass-to-run play calling ratio to skew more toward a run heavy-approach, signaling the potential for a 75th-percentile outcome.
Per the Trends tool, when favorited by more than 5.5-points, Jackson averages 26.92 actual DraftKings points, with a +4.84 Plus/Minus rating.
Top Value: Patrick Mahomes vs. Dallas Cowboys – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
In what looks to be a marquee matchup this week, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes rates as the best value quarterback on the slate. Leading a high-powered Chiefs offense, Mahomes takes a pass-first play-calling approach, using a 65%/35% play calling ratio and moves the offense at a lightning-fast pace, calling a play every 24.8 seconds the fourth fastest in the league.
With a game total at 56-points, the highest on the slate, expect the Chiefs to put points on the board with essentially two “matchup-proof” members of the receiving corps in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, despite facing a tough Cowboys defense, ranked fourth in DVOA. With Mahomes’s tendency to pass, he should easily reach fantasy relevance this week and could also hit the 300-passing yard bonus.
Top Rostered: Cam Newton vs. Washington Football Team – $5,100 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Cam Newton’s return to Carolina has created a buzz around the industry and looks to be a popular choice for rosters this week, projecting 13.4% ownership. Newton is expected to start in place of quarterback PJ Walker and should see more playing time after a 34-10 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Priced at $5,100 on DraftKings, Newton gives lineups a deep discount and should reach value given his unique skill set as a dual-threat option, facing a weak Washington defense ranked 27th in DVOA.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. Washington Football Team – $8,900 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week. A versatile option in the Carolina offense, McCaffrey should see the bulk of volume from the backfield, seeing a 45% share in carries since his return to action in Week 9. In addition to his rushing workload, McCaffrey is a viable target option for Cam Newton, leading the Panthers’ receiving corps with 10 targets in Week 10, averaging 6.6 yards per reception.
Facing a weak Washington defense ranked 27th in DVOA should trend the dominant running back toward a ceiling outcome, given his significant role in the offense.
Top Value: A.J. Dillion vs. Minnesota Vikings – $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
With lead running back Aaron Jones out for Week 11 with a knee injury, expect A.J. Dillion to see the bulk of the workload in the backfield for the Packers. Dillion and the Packers face a Vikings defense ranked 28th in rush DVOA, setting up an ideal matchup for the second-year running back. In a Week 10 17-0 win over the Seattle Seahawks, Dillion rushed for 66 yards on 21 carries, finding the endzone twice. As the top value running back this week, Dillion should reach fantasy relevance given the likely volume increase in his new role as the lead running back.
Top Rostered: James Conner vs. Seattle Seahawks – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
This week, A.J. Dillion looks to be a popular choice for rosters, given his likely uptick in production. Projected for 27% ownership this week, Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner also looks to be one of the more rostered running backs this week. Taking over for injured running back Chase Edmonds, Conner has led the Cardinals’ backfield with a 52% share in carries since Week 9. Seeing at least 10 carries in his new role, Conner also looks to be the preferred choice for goalline work, seeing the endzone 11 times this year. Seattle ranks 21st in DVOA and should be an ideal matchup for Conner. Arizona is also a 3.5-point favorite and will likely lean on Conner for a clock-killing strategy if ahead late in the game.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams vs. Minnesota Vikings – $8,400 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Davante Adams again projects for the highest ceiling this week. As the preferred target for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Adams leads the Packers receiving corps with a 34% target share and is the number one choice for red-zone targets with 12 targets this year (per AddMoreFunds). With a 42% share of intended air yards and a 13.3 yards per reception, Adams has the possibility of reaching a 75th-percentile outcome every week, especially with Rodgers seeing a strong 0.34 correlation coefficient to his WR1 dating back to last season.
Top Value: Tee Higgins vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
The Week 11 matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Las Vegas Raiders looks to be a high-scoring affair, current at a 50.5-point total. Using a slightly skewed 59%/41% pass-to-run ratio, the Bengals, led by quarterback Joe Burrow, are poised to be in an ideal spot against a Raiders defense ranked 23rd in pass DVOA.
Tee Higgins has emerged as an excellent option in the Bengals receiving corps, seeing 24% of the target share and has seen at least five targets in seven games this season, averaging 12.3 yards per reception. With an average of 47.4 air yards per game, combined with guaranteed looks and in a matchup with shootout potential, look for Higgins to reach fantasy relevance in a matchup where the Bengals will likely need to move the offense through the air in hopes of keeping the game competitive as 4.5-point underdogs.
Top Rostered: Tyler Lockett vs. Arizona Cardinals – $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
Higgins and Adams project as the number one and two in rostered wide receivers this week. In another matchup with shootout potential, between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals, wide receiver Tyler Lockett should see popularity, projected for 17.7% projected ownership.
Seattle’s receiving corps runs through Lockett and DK Metcalf, with Lockett seeing a team-leading 27% target share and has been targeted by quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Geno Smith at least five times in eight of Seattle’s first eight games. Although a tough matchup against a Cardinals’ defense ranked second in DVOA, Lockett should continue to be a primary weapon in the Seahawks’ pass-heavy offense, which will likely need to increase their 59%/41% pass-to-run ratio as 3.5-point underdogs.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Dallas Cowboys – $7,100 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
With Travis Kelce returning to the main slate, it is almost a guarantee he will project for the highest ceiling among the position. A preferred weapon for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Kelce handles a 22% target share, seeing at least six targets in every game this season. Kelce has a 0.22 correlation coefficient and should be a first choice for pairing with either Mahomes or Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott in a bring-back situation, especially with a likely shootout.
Top Value: Dan Arnold vs. San Francisco 49ers – $4,100 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
Dan Arnold projects for the highest Projected Plus/Minus at +2.6. With a discounted $4,100 on DraftKings and a team-leading 19% target share since Week 5, Arnold can give rosters salary relief given the high volume in the pass-first Jaguars offense, which calls a 63%/37% pass-to-run ratio. San Francisco ranks 20th in pass DVOA, and with Jacksonville currently, 4-point underdogs, expect quarterback Trevor Lawrence to rely on Arnold to power the offense.
Top Rostered: Cole Kmet vs. Baltimore Ravens – $3,400 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
Cole Kmet has quietly seen an uptick in involvement in the Chicago Bears offense, seeing five or more targets since Week 6, responsible for a 22% target share. At 16%, Kmet projects as the most popular option at the tight end position. Baltimore ranks 24th in pass DVOA, and quarterback Justin Fields should increase the Bears’ balanced 52%/48% pass-to-run ratio to favor a more pass-friendly approach as 3.5-point underdogs. With this likely game script, Kmet can be easily paired as a bring-back option to Lamar Jackson.
