The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 10 NFL slate. Keep in mind, these projections may change as we get closer to Sunday, especially the Ownership Projections.
We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Tom Brady vs. Washington Football Team – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
Opening at a 51.5-point total, Tampa Bay heads to the nation’s capital, returning from a bye week as they make a push toward the postseason. Tom Brady has been dominant this season, leading the league in touchdown passes (25) and is second in passing yards (2,650). Brady looks to have a prime matchup, facing a Washington defense ranked 31st in pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders. With a strong correlation to the Tampa Bay receiving corps in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, Brady could easily reach a 75th-percentile outcome. Per the Trends tool, in matchup above a 51-point total, Brady averages 23.41 actual DraftKings points and a +2.01 Plus/Minus rating.
Top Value: Josh Allen vs. New York Jets – $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Josh Allen looks to have another “get right” spot after a 9-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9. Allen takes on the New York Jets, who rank last in defensive DVOA. A versatile playmaker, Allen leads a Bills offense that relies on the arm strength of their franchise quarterback, using a pass-heavy 61%/39% pass-to-run ratio (per RotoViz). But, also look for Allen to see volume through designed runs, responsible for 26% of the work in the backfield.
With a dual-threat approach, facing a team that has a hard time stopping offenses, look for Allen to reach fantasy relevance with his diverse skillset.
Top Rostered: Dak Prescott vs. Atlanta Falcons – $6,900 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
Projected for 18.2% ownership, Dak Prescott looks to be the most popular choice for rosters this week. After a 30-16 upset at the hands of the Denver Broncos, the Week 10 matchup against the Falcons, who rank 31st in defensive DVOA, looks to be a prime spot to turn things around. Despite the more balanced approach to the offense, calling a 58%/42% pass-to-run ratio, the Cowboys rank third in plays called this season, averaging 70 plays per game and should keep pace against an up-tempo Falcons offense (both teams play at a 25 second per snap pace).
With the benefit of high-powered options in the receiving corps in Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott and the potential return of Michael Gallup, Prescott has multiple stacking options at his disposal. With the Falcons also skewing toward a more pass-heavy play-calling approach, look for bring-back options in Kyle Pitts, Russell Gage and Cordarrelle Patterson.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Taylor vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $8,100 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has established himself as the lead carrier in the Colts’ backfield, responsible for 57% of the share of carries. With quarterback Carson Wentz under center, the Colts have chosen a more balanced approach to their play calling, using a 58%/42% pass-to-run ratio.
The volume is undoubtedly there for Taylor to reach a ceiling outcome, facing a Jaguars defense ranked 27thin DVOA. In seven of the season’s first nine games, Taylor has had 15 or more carries, averaging 5.86 yards per attempt. Look for the Colts to involve Taylor in a clock-killing scheme as a 10.5-point favorite, signaling an added opportunity for the second-year back.
Top Value: Leonard Fournette vs. Washington Football Team – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Responsible for 56% of the work in the backfield, Leonard Fournette is the go-to back in the Buccaneers’ offense, despite the pass-first tendencies. Averaging 4.35 yards per attempt, Fournette has seen 10 or more carries in five of the Buccaneers’ eight games this season. Fournette also factors into the passing game, seeing five or more targets in five games.
Facing a weak Washington defense, look for Fournette to reach fantasy relevance, given his integral part in the high-powered Buccaneers’ offense and his high usage in the red zone, seeing 25 attempts from the red zone this year (per AddMoreFunds).
Top Rostered: D’Ernest Johnson vs. New England Patriots – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
The Browns backfield has caught the injury bug, with lead running back Nick Chubb landing on the COVID-19 injured reserve and Kareem Hunt remaining on the IR with a calf injury. D’Ernest Johnson looks to be the lead back for the Week 10 contest against the Patriots and should be a popular choice for rosters this week, projected for 40.8% ownership.
Johnson saw a starting role in a Week 7 matchup against the Denver Broncos, scoring 27.8 actual DraftKings points and a +19.72 Plus/Minus. New England ranks 17th in rush DVOA and should set up a similar environment for Johnson to reach fantasy relevance, given his likely volume in the backfield.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams vs. Seattle Seahawk – $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams is the go-to choice in the offense. With the potential return of Aaron Rodgers this week, look for Adams to be the first look downfield, facing a Seahawks defense ranked 24th in pass DVOA. Adams has the potential to reach a 75th-percentile outcome every week, given his big-play ability, averaging 13.6 yards per reception and 63.8 Average Total Air Yards, responsible for 44.7% of the Packers’ total intended air yards.
Even with a 49.5-point total, look for this Week 10 matchup to potentially shoot out, signaling likely involvement from Adams, especially in the end zone. This season, Adams has recorded 10 red-zone targets, which is the ninth-most among wide receivers.
Top Value: Diontae Johnson vs. Detroit Lions – $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
The team leader in target share, seeing 29% of the Steelers’ looks, Diontae Johnson should be the direct beneficiary of the unfortunate toe injury of Chase Claypool. In five games this year, Johnson has seen 10 or more targets, averaging 11.8 yards per reception and looks to have an ideal matchup, facing a Lions defense ranked 29th in DOVA. With Ben Roethlisberger under center, the Steelers prefer a pass-heavy approach, using a 63%/37% pass-to-run ratio, which should equate to an uptick in production for Johnson.
Given the amount of perceived volume, Johnson should reach fantasy relevance and should be the first choice as a stacking option to Roethlisberger.
Top Rostered: Chris Godwin vs. Washington Football Team – $7,100 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Davante Adams looks to be the most popular wide receiver option on the slate, projected for 24.7% ownership. However, at 21.8%, Buccaneers’ wide receiver Chris Godwin looks to be another popular choice, given the ideal matchup with the Washington Football Team.
Godwin is an ideal stacking option to quarterback Tom Brady, seeing a strong 0.55 correlation coefficient. With a 20% target share, Godwin leads the Buccaneers’ receiving corps and has seen 10 or more targets in four games this season, averaging 13.2 yards per reception.
Keep an eye on the news this weekend; with reports surfacing Godwin is dealing with a lingering foot injury, which kept him out of practice Wednesday.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Kyle Pitts vs. Dallas Cowboys – $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
Without top-tier options at tight end this week, rookie Kyle Pitts projects for the highest ceiling for the position. With the Falcons dealing with the absence of Calvin Ridley, Pitts looks to be the first option for quarterback Matt Ryan, seeing a 22% target share in Weeks 8 and 9. The matchup with the Cowboys should be a high-scoring affair, currently at 54.5-points, the highest on the slate, which should signal involvement from Pitts, who should again lead the Falcons’ receiving corps in targets, despite a tough matchup against the Cowboys, who are ninth in pass DVOA.
Top Value: Dan Arnold vs. Indianapolis Colts – $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
Jaguars tight end Dan Arnold has emerged as one of the preferred choices in the receiving corps, seeing 17 targets since Week 8 and responsible for a team-leading 21% target share. The up-tempo Jaguars offense, led by rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence, prefers a pass-first approach, calling a 63%/37% pass-to-run ratio and should see an uptick in the passing game, especially as 10.5-point underdogs.
The Colts’ defense ranks 26th in pass DVOA and could be an ideal matchup for Arnold to reach fantasy relevance because of his high involvement in the passing game.
Top Rostered: Jared Cook vs. Minnesota Vikings – $3,200 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Dan Arnold is projected to be the most popular choice at tight end this week, projected for 21% ownership. However, this week, Los Angeles Chargers tight end Jared Cook should also be a popular roster choice. Fourth in the receiving corps in target share, behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and running back Austin Ekeler, Cook sees a 14% target share, seeing four or more targets in six of the Chargers’ first eight games this year. Despite a tough matchup against the third-ranked pass DVOA Vikings defense, look for Cook to see consistent volume from quarterback Justin Herbert as part of a pass-heavy 65%/35% pass-to-run play calling ratio.
