Many fantasy football teams are making their final playoff push over the next two weeks, so we’ll be taking a longer-term approach to recommendations.
If you’re scouring the waiver wire this late in the season, it’s likely for one of three reasons:
- Your fantasy team lacks the scoring upside to contend with your league’s top teams in the playoffs, so you need to find a big-play threat to start at your flex spot in hopes that he breaks off a big game at the perfect time.
- You’re dealing with injuries or suspensions and need conservative, high-floor replacements. You’re probably in this camp if you drafted Leonard Fournette, Marlon Mack, Alex Collins, Marquise Goodwin, A.J. Green or Marvin Jones.
- You don’t have a stone-cold lock player at your flex position. You stockpiled too many inconsistent flex options, none of whom have great matchups this week. You’re looking for a streaming waiver wire option with plus-EV matchups during the playoffs.
In order to help the greatest number of readers, I’ve targeted players that satisfy each of the three situations detailed above. For each skill position, I’ll recommend one player with the best upside, one with the best floor projection and one with the best remaining schedule.
I highlight players who are owned in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues and recommend an auction price (in parentheses) for each player for leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget system. All recommendations are made based on a $100 FAAB budget.
Quarterbacks
Best Upside: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens ($3)
This recommendation is obviously contingent on the status of Joe Flacco (hip). But as long as Flacco remains out, it’s wise to ride Jackson’s legs as far as they can take you.
In two games as a starter, Jackson has averaged 95 rushing yards and 19.55 PPR fantasy points. Perhaps most importantly, Baltimore has gone 2-0 with Jackson at the helm, which means the coaching staff could continue to roll with Jackson, opting not to rush Flacco back onto the field.
The Ravens face the Falcons, Chiefs and Buccaneers over the next three weeks, all of whom rank 27th or worse in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season.
Best Floor: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns ($2)
Mayfield logged the best statistical performance of his young career against the Bengals this past Sunday, going 19-of-26 passing for 258 yards and four touchdowns.
Mayfield and the Browns have been red-hot offensively since firing Hue Jackson and Todd Haley in Week 8.
Since Week 9, Mayfield has a 9-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, compared to a 4-to-3 ratio under Hue Jackson. Mayfield is also completing 73.9% of his passes, compared to a mediocre 58.3% through Week 8.
Could some of that statistical improvement be a result of a rookie quarterback assimilating to the NFL? Sure. Could some of Mayfield’s improvement be attributed to matchup or sample size issues? Maybe.
Even so, this is not a modest bump in efficiency; it’s massive. Mayfield went from averaging 14.7 fantasy points per game to 22.1, and judging by the eye test, it seems to be the result of Freddie Kitchens’ spread offensive scheme.
No matter what you believe has contributed to Mayfield’s development, he’s proven over his past three games that he’s capable of QB1 fantasy numbers for the rest of the season. Looming dates against the Panthers in Week 14 and the Bengals in Week 16 project favorably for the talented Browns gunslinger.
Best Schedule: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($2)
The Cowboys’ final five games include matchups against the Saints, Eagles, Colts, Buccaneers and Giants. All five of those teams rank 18th or worse in defense DVOA, 19th or worse in pass defense DVOA and 17th or worse in average fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Prescott is perhaps the only quarterback readily available on waivers who should produce QB1 fantasy production in all five of his remaining matchups. He’s coming off his best statistical game of the season against the Redskins, in which he threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 18 yards and a touchdown. He’s now scored a rushing touchdown in five of his last six games and is averaging 21.4 PPR fantasy points over that stretch.
Running Back
Best Upside: LeGarrette Blount, Detroit Lions ($18)
Blount is the ultimate upside play so long as Kerryon Johnson continues to miss time with a knee injury.
Blount stepped in as the Lions’ feature back against the highly-touted Bears defense on Thanksgiving Day and shredded Chicago for 88 rushing yards, two touchdowns and 23.3 PPR fantasy points. That fantasy performance ranked ninth among all running backs in Week 12. Even more impressively, Blount delivered it against a defense that ranks first in rush DVOA and allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game (17.8) to running backs.
Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner combined for four rushes and 21 rushing yards and were easily outclassed by the veteran Blount.
If Johnson misses extended time due to his knee injury, Blount has a strong case as a must-start fantasy running back over the next two games.
The Lions face off against the Rams this week, who rank 29th in rush defense DVOA and 14th in fantasy points per game (24.1) surrendered to running backs. And if Johnson sits out Week 14 matchup against the Cardinals, Blount could feast once again. Arizona ranks 15th in rush defense DVOA and is allowing the 28th-most fantasy points per game to running backs (29.4).
For Johnson owners, Blount is a must-add this week. Don’t hoard your FAAB dollars unnecessarily — spend whatever you have to acquire this top-tier handcuff.
Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeGarrette Blount
Best Floor: Frank Gore, Miami Dolphins ($6)
Kenyan Drake (shoulder) was questionable to play against the Colts but suited up and balled out for the Dolphins. He posted a 8-32-1 rushing line to go along with 5-64-1 receiving. But unfortunately, his good health stymied any chance for Gore to claim his precious receiving volume.
Nonetheless, Gore still managed a very “Gore-like” statistical performance, rushing 14 times for 67 yards and adding one reception for 10 yards. His 8.7 PPR fantasy points ranked 30th among running backs in Week 12.
The obvious knock on Gore is that he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown this season. Still, there’s some evidence that this is due to extremely poor variance. Gore leads the Dolphins in rush attempts (12) inside the 20-yard line and rush attempts (5) inside the 10-yard line. Adam Gase is not systematically preventing Gore from scoring. He just needs to punch it in.
Even with his poor touchdown volume, Gore is still one of the most consistent fantasy running backs available.
Gore has finished top-36 among running backs in fantasy points in six of his past eight games dating back to Week 4. Over that span he’s averaged 13.4 rush attempts, 62.1 rushing yards and 9.0 PPR fantasy points. For the season, he ranks 18th in rush attempts (131) and 19th in rushing yards (595).
Best Schedule: Ty Montgomery, Baltimore Ravens ($4)
Montgomery came back from the dead against the Raiders in Week 12, rushing eight times for 51 yards and catching three passes for 13 yards. His 9.4 PPR fantasy points ranked 27th among running backs this week.
Gus Edwards has been the Ravens’ running back of choice with quarterback Lamar Jackson running the show. Edwards’ familiarity with the option combined with Alex Collins’ nagging foot injury has resulted in a feature back workload since Week 11. It’s uncertain how Baltimore will choose to split touches when Collins fully recovers — or when Flacco returns.
Montgomery is an interesting waiver add due to the combination of his receiving acumen and his upcoming defensive matchups. He’s averaging 2.3 receptions for 22.9 receiving yards in his eight meaningful games this season and could see an uptick in receiving usage as he becomes more integrated into Baltimore’s offensive game plan.
Meanwhile, his primary competition — Javorius Allen — has completely disappeared in his past two games. He’s combined to rush twice for four yards and has not been targeted in the passing game.
No matter how the Ravens split touches between Collins and Edwards in their remaining games, Montgomery’s hold on the receiving back role seems strong. That potential receiving volume is particularly valuable given his upcoming matchups:
Edwards is not featured in this article because he’s currently owned in 53.7% of ESPN leagues. If he is available in your league, he’s a no-brainer waiver pickup. But if you missed the bandwagon for Edwards, target Montgomery to gain access to the Ravens’ soft schedule during the fantasy playoffs.
Wide Receiver
Best Upside: Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams ($12)
In one of the NFL games of the century between the Rams and Chiefs, Reynolds proved his mettle as a valuable asset in Los Angeles’ passing attack. He snared six passes for 80 yards and a touchdown on eight targets and ranked 12th among wide receivers with 20.0 PPR fantasy points.
Following Cooper Kupp’s season-ending knee injury, Reynolds was the obvious choice to step into a starting role for the Rams. But with an incredibly small sample size in his short career, no one was really sure whether he would fill up the stat sheet or just be a place-filler.
He answered some of those questions with a big performance against the Chiefs.
In three games as a starter, Reynolds has averaged 4.7 targets, 3.3 receptions, 47 receiving yard and one touchdown per game. That stat line equates to 14.0 PPR fantasy points per game, which would rank 25th among wide receivers.
He has three upcoming opportunities to prove that he’s for real: Week 13 against the Lions, Week 14 against the Bears and Week 15 against the Eagles. The Lions rank 20th, the Bears rank 25th and the Eagles rank 31st in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers this season.
Reynolds is a cog in an elite offensive machine and is about to take on three defenses that have poor track records against receivers this season. He offers week-winning upside, but you have to be able to stomach some inconsistency and uncertainty in order to access it.
Best Floor: Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals ($8)
Kirk has been on and off our waive recommendations several times this season and was notably featured in last week’s article after his 77-yard performance against the Raiders. He’s bounced up and down from the Watch List to our core recommendations due to his fleeting brilliance but largely-untapped potential.
All season, we’ve been waiting for a Tre’Quan Smith- or D.J. Moore-style breakout game for Kirk, but it simply hasn’t come.
Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Christian Kirk
Instead, Kirk has separated himself in a different way — as one of the most reliable, high-floor rookie wide receiver options in the league. He’s tied with Calvin Ridley for most top-24 fantasy weeks (4) and top-36 fantasy weeks (6). (Of course, Ridley also has three top-12 finishes to his credit.)
Kirk’s 78.5% snap rate is on par with Taylor Gabriel (78%), Amari Cooper (77%) and T.Y. Hilton (77%). Kirk’s 19% target share is similar to Marvin Jones (19%) and Demaryius Thomas (19%). And Kirk’s 24% air yards team market share is comparable to Tyler Boyd (24%) and Golden Tate (25%).
His Week 13 opponent, the Packers, allow the 23rd-most fantasy points per game (39.2) to wide receivers. He also draws two dream matchups against weak secondaries — the Lions and Falcons — in Weeks 14 and 15.
Best Schedule: Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers ($5)
I know what you’re probably thinking: “Curtis Samuel? Bit of a reach, don’t you think?”
Hear me out: Samuel had an operation in September to correct an irregular heartbeat, which forced him to miss the Panthers’ opening four games. He was eased back into action in Week 5 against the Giants but has really started to hit his stride over his past six games.
Since Week 7, Samuel has caught three touchdowns and rushed for two, only failing to score once — in Week 8 against the Ravens. He’s rushed six times this season for 68 yards and two touchdowns. Think about that for a second. He has scored a rushing touchdown on one-third of his attempts this season. On top of that, two of his six rushes have gone for over 25 yards.
His efficiency and big play ability also show up in his receiving stat sheet. He boasts a catch-rate of 76% and has scored four receiving touchdowns on just 19 total receptions. Sure, his volume isn’t great, but his breakaway potential is massive on any given play.
Most important of all, he has perhaps the softest remaining schedule of any wide receiver readily available on waivers:
With the possible exception of the Browns, all of Samuels’ future matchups feature mediocre defensive matchups that benefit his skillset. Even despite Cleveland’s elite DVOA ranks in team defense, the Browns are still giving up the 24th-most fantasy points per game (39.8) to wide receivers this season.
The Panthers offense has looked particularly dynamic over their last few games due in large part to Samuel’s and Moore’s synergy and play-making ability. If Moore is unavailable in your league, snag Samuel instead and consider rolling the dice with him during your fantasy playoffs.
Tight End
Best Upside: C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals ($2)
Andy Dalton was placed on Injured Reserve on Monday with an injured thumb and will miss the rest of the season. Jeff Driskel stepped in to lead Cincinnati in Week 12 and will be called on to manage the offense in Dalton’s stead. And with Driskel under center this past Sunday, Uzomah drew a season-high 13 targets, snagging six of those passes for 39 yards.
Backup quarterbacks have a tendency to progress through their reads too quickly, resulting in increased check-downs to running backs and tight ends. Moreover, backups might also be more risk-averse, favoring the center of the field and the short passing game.
Both of those tendencies favor Uzomah.
David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: C.J. Uzomah
On top of that, star wide receiver A.J. Green remains out with a toe injury. With Dalton done for the season, I doubt the Bengals would expedite Green’s return to the field, especially since Cincinnati is essentially out of the playoff race.
That leaves Uzomah as the second-leading receiver behind Tyler Boyd. Uzomah has been inconsistent and inefficient in 2018, but his projected volume makes him a high-upside target at tight end.
Best Floor: Chris Herndon, New York Jets ($2)
In many ways, Herndon is the opposite of Uzomah: Reliable, consistent, efficient — but limited. In his past three games, Herndon averaged 11.0 PPR points per contest and has averaged a PPR TE13 finish per week.
He scored a touchdown in three consecutive games from Weeks 6 to 8, but has failed to find the end zone since. Thankfully he posted a 7-57-0 receiving line in Week 12 on a season-high eight targets and has proven his ability to maintain threshold TE1/TE2 numbers without relying on touchdowns.
There are few streaming tight end options who can claim this level of reliability.
Moreover, he’s achieved this high-floor fantasy production regardless of his competition. His last six outings have featured matchups against the Bills, Vikings and Bears. If he can produce against those defenses, he’s as matchup-proof as you’ll find on waivers this deep in the season.
Best Schedule: Dan Arnold, New Orleans Saints ($1)
Arnold has been surging up the Saints’ depth chart over the past three weeks, siphoning snaps and targets away from veteran Ben Watson. Watson’s snap count has declined in every game since Week 9, and he played a season-low 18 snaps this week against the Falcons. In his last three games, Watson has totaled just two receptions for 21 yards.
Meanwhile, over that same span, Arnold has caught 10 passes for 95 yards and a touchdown on 11 total targets. Arnold’s increased target share and snap count signal a changing of the guard at tight end in New Orleans.
It could be valuable to target Saints tight ends over the next five weeks. New Orleans’ closing schedule is as cushy as it gets for the position:
Arnold (chest) is currently questionable for New Orleans’ Thursday night game against the Cowboys. Continue to monitor his status using our NFL Injury Report throughout the week.
The Watch List
The following players could be worthy of consideration in deeper leagues. Many of these players have inconsistent usage but boast above-average rest-of-season matchups.
Current ESPN ownership percentage for each player is in parentheses:
- Adam Humphries, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28.2%)
- Alfred Blue, RB, Houston Texans (4.8%)
- Anthony Miller, WR, Chicago Bears (47.2%)
- Antonio Callaway, WR, Cleveland Browns (7.8%)
- Bruce Ellington, WR, Detroit Lions (0.8%)
- Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (44.2%)
- Dante Pettis, WR, San Francisco 49ers (0.7%)
- David Moore, WR, Seattle Seahawks (6.8%)
- Dede Westbrook, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (28.4%)
- John Ross, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (18.5%)
- Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (1.5%)
- Josh Doctson, WR, Washington Redskins (15.6%)
- Justin Jackson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (0.2%)
- Keke Coutee, WR, Houston Texans (27.0%)
- Nyheim Hines, RB, Indianapolis Colts (29.9%)
- Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos (47.2%)
- Taylor Gabriel, WR, Chicago Bears (44.3%)
- Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions (37.1%)
- Tre’Quan Smith, WR, New Orleans Saints (42.8%)
Pictured above: Lamar Jackson
Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
