The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and value ratings for the four-game divisional round slate.
We’ll use the Koerner Model as the foundation.
Also, don’t forget you can use our Trends tool to test your DFS theories. And for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your team.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Josh Allen projects for the highest ceiling among the quarterback position in one of the weekend’s marquee matchups. Allen, a dual-threat option, leads a Buffalo Bills offense ranked seventh (per PFF) in a matchup with a 54-point total, the highest on the slate. Although improved throughout the season, Allen should have an ideal matchup against a Kansas City Chiefs defense ranked 24th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
Responsible for 26% of the Bills’ rushes, only second to Devin Singletary, Allen can move the offense on the ground and through the air, with Buffalo preferring to lean on the strength of Allen’s arm, using a 60%/40% pass-to-run ratio (per RotoViz). Look for Allen to distribute the allotment of targets to high-powered weapons in Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox.
Looking at the Trends tool, Allen exceeds expectation in matchups with shootout potential, averaging 30.24 actual DraftKings points and a +7.19 Plus/Minus rating in matchups with a total of 54 points or higher.
Top Value: Patrick Mahomes vs. Buffalo Bills – $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
On the opposite side of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes projects as a top value in a likely high-scoring affair with the Buffalo Bills. Like Allen, Mahomes has dual-threat upside, leading a high-powered Chiefs offense ranked eighth (per PFF), using a pass-heavy 63%/37% pass-to-run play calling ratio and are among the fastest-paced offenses in the league, calling a play every 26.2 seconds.
Aside from high-powered weapons in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, look for Mahomes to also involve Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle into the pass-heavy game plan, despite facing a tough Bills’ defense ranked first in DVOA. Per the Trends tool, Mahomes averages 26 actual DraftKings points and a +2.57 Plus/Minus rating in games with a 54-point total or higher.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $7,500 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Derrick Henry is expected to return for Saturday’s matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Missing a bulk of playing time this season with a foot injury, Henry, a dominant piece of the Titans offense, looks to have an ideal matchup, facing a Bengals’ defense ranked 19th in DVOA. Despite missing 10 weeks, Henry leads the Titans’ backfield in workload seeing 84% of carries, averaging more than 27 carries per game and 4.28 yards per game.
On top of the volume of carries, Henry also plays an integral role in the Titans’ passing game, averaging 2.5 targets per game. With the likely volume in the Titans’ offense going his way, look for Henry to have an 85th-percentile outcome in his return if he gets his full workload.
Top Value: Leonard Fournette vs. Los Angeles Rams – $5,700 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Despite missing the wild-card matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette is scheduled to return against the Los Angeles Rams. The lead back in the Buccaneers’ offense, Fournette, is responsible for 57% of the workload of carries, averaging 4.51 yards per carry. Tampa Bay is one of the more pass-heavy offenses in the league, using a 66%/34% pass-to-run play calling ratio, and Fournette sees a 13% share of targets from quarterback Tom Brady.
Despite facing a Rams defense ranked fifth in DVOA, Fournette should easily reach fantasy relevance, given a discounted price on DraftKings, involvement in the Buccaneers’ offense and likely volume on the ground and through the air. Look to Fournette as a stacking option with Brady or a bring-back for Matthew Stafford-led rosters.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Cooper Kupp vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $8,600 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
A consistent through-line of the year is Cooper Kupp’s big-play upside. This week, a favorite target of Rams’ quarterback Matthew Stafford, Kupp projects for the highest ceiling among the wide receiver position. Seeing more than 30% of the Rams’ target share, Kupp averages 11.2 targets per game this year and 13.4 yards per reception. Kupp should be the first look for Stafford, a must-stack option, who has a 0.66 correlation to WR1.
The matchup with a Buccaneers defense ranked ninth in DVOA should give Stafford and the Rams’ receiving corps issues but given the big-play upside and first look tendencies of Kupp, expect a potential for a ceiling performance.
Top Value: Tyreek Hill vs. Buffalo Bills – $6,600 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
This week, a primary weapon in the Kansas City Chiefs offense, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, projects as a top value among wide receivers. Hill leads a high-powered Chiefs receiving corps with a 24% target share, averaging 9.4 targets per game and 11.2 yards per reception.
Hill should remain a preferred weapon for Patrick Mahomes, despite facing a top-ranked Bills defense, who have been excellent at stopping the pass. Hill appears to have a discounted price tag on DraftKings and can easily reach fantasy relevance given the likely volume, combined with touchdown upside.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Buffalo Bills – $6,500 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce continues to be one of the more dynamic playmakers in the league, projecting for the highest ceiling among tight ends this week. Seeing 21% of the looks from quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Kelce is a primary option in the Chiefs receiving corps alongside Tyreek Hill.
Averaging 8.4 targets per game and 12.2 yards per reception, Kelce is a dangerous option and has the potential to reach an 85th-percentile outcome, especially given his touchdown upside, seeing 14 red-zone targets this year (per AddMoreFunds). In a matchup with shootout potential, look for Kelce to see a full allotment in production against a tough Bills’ defense.
Top Value: Rob Gronkowski vs. Los Angeles Rams – $5,800 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
This week, Rob Gronkowski projects as a top value among tight ends. As part of the pass-heavy Buccaneers offense, Gronk handles 17% of the looks from quarterback Tom Brady, averaging 7.4 targets per game and 14.6 yards per reception. Given his likely volume in the Buccaneers’ offense, Gronk can easily reach fantasy relevance, along with touchdown upside, seeing 12 red zone targets this year.
Even facing a challenging Rams defense, which ranks sixth in pass DVOA, Gronk should still be a first-look option in the Buccaneers receiving corps, especially with the absence of Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown.
