Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly whom you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 9.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts – QB10 on StatHero, QB4 on FantasyLabs
Hurts only scored 11.22 DraftKings points last week as the run game was effective, and the Eagles handily dispatched the Lions, 44-6. While the Eagles could have similar success rushing against the 32nd-ranked rush-defense DVOA of the Chargers, the Vegas Dashboard has the Chargers implied for 25.5 points and favored by 1.5 points, so the Eagles will likely have to maintain aggression. Take out last week’s game, and Hurts has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in every other game with a high of 31.18.
Tua Tagovailoa – QB18 on StatHero, QB9 on FantasyLabs
The Texans are 31st in rush-defense DVOA, so it’s possible that the Dolphins ground and pound while letting their defense dictate the action. I just don’t think that happens. Miami is 25th in run blocking and are second in pass rate. In addition, the return of Tyrod Taylor for the Texans should make this a more competitive affair. The spread opened at seven points but has been bet down to 5.5 as a result. Tua has attempted 39, 40, and 47 passes in the last three games and has gone for 25.36, 28.54, and 16.2 DraftKings points.
Running Back
Najee Harris – RB7 on StatHero, RB1 on FantasyLabs
Chicago is 24th in rush defense DVOA and 16th against pass-catching running backs. Harris has averaged a positive 10.02 Plus/Minus on the season and has exceeded points expectations 100% of the time. He’s scored at least 20 DraftKings points in five straight with a high of 31.3. Harris has snap counts of 84% over the last two games, is involved in the passing game, and gets the goal-line work. The Steelers are also 6.5 home favorites, so the game script should be a favorable one.
Ezekiel Elliot – RB9 on StatHero, RB3 on FantasyLabs
Elliot has scored double-digit DraftKings points in every game this season, with at least 16 carries in every game. He has two games with at least 20 carries and 100 yards. There is passing game involvement as well, as he’s received six and nine targets in the last two games. In the red zone, Elliot has 21 rushes and six targets. Now he gets a Broncos team that is 27th in rush defense DVOA. The Cowboys are implied for 29.75 points and are 10-point favorites.
Myles Gaskin – RB23 on StatHero, RB11 on FantasyLabs
The matchup is fantastic as the Texans are dead-last in rush defense DVOA. Gaskin only received 58% of the snaps last week, though, and has only three games with double-digit carries. He has been involved in the passing game and has nine carries and five targets in the red zone. There’s definitely uncertainty with this play, but the matchup and game environment should be a decent one for fantasy goodies.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson – WR11 on StatHero, WR6 on FantasyLabs
Kirk Cousins being terrible last week probably has something to do with this discrepancy. As a result, Jefferson posted his first single-digit DraftKings game last week. Baltimore plays a lot of man-to-man, which is music to Jefferson’s ears because he feasts against it. The Ravens are 23rd in pass defense DVOA, and they are implied for 27.5 points, so the Vikings will have to be aggressive to keep pace.
Robert Woods – WR19 on StatHero, WR10 on FantasyLabs
Teammate Cooper Kupp gets all the accolades, and for good reason, because he’s been amazing this season. Woods hasn’t been bad himself as he has scored double-digit DraftKings points in all but one game and has a high of 30. The Rams are implied for 30.5 points and should be able to do whatever they want on offense. Woods has four touchdowns on the season with 14 targets and two red-zone rushes.
Mike Williams – WR7 on StatHero, WR15 on FantasyLabs
Williams has six touchdowns on the season, two games over 100 yards, and three games with at least 10 targets. Over the last two games, though, he has five targets and two receptions in each game. That translated to 3.8 and 4.7 DraftKings points. Four games ago, he also went for 2.1 DraftKings points. The Eagles are 12th in pass defense DVOA, and he could be matched up against Darius Slay plenty, who is rated high according to PFF.
Tight End
Albert Okwuegbunam– TE18 on StatHero, TE13 on FantasyLabs
With Noah Fant out, Okwuegbunam should slide into the starting tight end role. He’s very athletic as he runs a 4.48 40-yard dash. Last week, he caught all three of his targets for 34 yards in 49% of the snaps. The Cowboys are dead-last in DVOA against tight ends. Yummy.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Backyard Football (Justin Jefferson and Josh Allen)
I usually like to block at least one player, but it wasn’t allowed in this contest. No worries. I like Ezekiel Elliot in the MVP slot over Jefferson as he has a two-point projection advantage. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have identical projections, with Lamar having the slightly higher ceiling projection.
Austin TD Limits (Austin Ekeler and Cordarelle Patterson)
Ezekiel Elliot and Ekeler have the same projection, with Elliot being $3,800 cheaper. That savings allows us to go up from Patterson to Najee Harris, who has the highest projection according to the Player Model.
