Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly whom you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 11.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers – QB7 on StatHero, QB12 on FantasyLabs
The Vikings are sixth in pass-defense DVOA while only 28th in rush defense DVOA. The path of least resistance is on the ground with AJ Dillon. Both Green Bay and Minnesota are middle-of-the-pack in terms of passing rate and the Packers are dead-last in offensive pace. The Vikings prefer to ground and pound and play good defense so, while a shootout is definitely within the range of outcomes for this one, a slow, grind-it-out-affair with muted passing volume has a high probability of happening as well. Rodgers has gone for 11.48 and 15.66 DraftKings points in his last two games.
Ben Roethlisberger – QB18 on StatHero, QB26 on FantasyLabs
Roethlisberger is averaging a -2.47 Plus/Minus and has not exceeded point expectations once this season. He has not scored more than 18 DraftKings in any game. Now he faces a Chargers team that is very vulnerable on the ground but seventh in pass-defense DVOA.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor – RB3 on StatHero, RB8 on FantasyLabs
Taylor has been on quite the heater lately. Despite rushing 20 times in only one game, he’s exceeded 100 yards in five of the last seven games and scored a touchdown in seven straight. The Bills are third in rush defense DVOA and the Vegas Dashboard has Buffalo implied for 28.3 points so the Colts may be in chasing points mode. In that scenario, Nyheim Hines could get more snaps. Could Taylor continue to smash? Sure, but the probabilities are decreased in this matchup and game environment.
AJ Dillon – RB10 on StatHero, RB5 on FantasyLabs
No Aaron Jones or Kylin Hill for the Packers so Dillon should get the bulk of the snaps in this one. Patrick Taylor is the backup and he’s played in a total of three snaps on the season. The Vikings are 28th in rush defense DVOA and Dillon isn’t a zero in the passing game.
Leonard Fournette – RB15 on StatHero, RB6 on FantasyLabs
Fournette is dominating the backfield snaps for the Bucs. He’s in the 60% to 70% and has one game with 80%. On the season, he is averaging a +6.14 Plus/Minus and has exceeded point expectations 80% of the time. He has two games with at least 20 carries in a game, has received at least four targets in seven games and has a total of 32 red-zone opportunities. The Bucs are favored by 10.5 points and the Giants are 30th in rush defense DVOA so there should plenty of opportunities for Fournette to feast.
Mark Ingram – RB13 on StatHero, RB29 on FantasyLabs
There is a wide discrepancy there because of the unknown status of Alvin Kamara. He did not practice on Thursday and there’s a good chance he doesn’t play. If he doesn’t, then Ingram becomes a great option against a vulnerable Eagles’ run defense. Ingram went for 20.8 DraftKings points last week when he filled in for Kamara.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase – WR10 on StatHero, WR4 on FantasyLabs
While the Raiders are first in pass rush according to PFF, they are 17th in coverage and just got eviscerated by Patrick Mahomes. Las Vegas blitzes at the lowest rate in the league and allows the fourth-highest aDOT. Chase has a 13.2 aDOT and has received 13, eight, 10, six, and 10 targets over the last six games. He has seven touchdowns on the season and three games over 100 yards receiving with a high of 201 yards.
Tight End
CJ Uzomah – TE25 on StatHero, TE16 on FantasyLabs
Uzomah has been all over the map this season. He has four games with two or fewer targets and two games with two touchdowns in each contest. I do like the Bengals to attack the Raiders’ 22nd pass-defense DVOA defense. Against tight ends, they are 29th in DVOA against so Uzomah could have one of his spike games.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
G.O.A.T & The Lamb (CeeDee Lamb and Tom Brady)
A block wasn’t allowed in this contest but that’s okay. I’ll go $200 down from Brady to Dak Prescott, who has a lower projection but only by a point. In addition, rostering Dak provides a soft block because if Lamb scores then Dak would get points as well. The savings allows upgrading Lamb to Chase, who is one of my favorite receivers this week. From a projection perspective, he has a one-point advantage over Lamb.
View from Ja’Marr (Ja’Marr Chase, Aaron Rodgers, and Nick Chubb)
Let’s block Chase in the MVP slot. Stacking him with Joe Burrow makes sense because Chase is probably not scoring without Burrow throwing him the ball. We also save $400 and Burrow is projected for a point more than Rodgers anyways. The savings allow us to go up to Austin Ekeler, who is basically projected for the same amount of points as Chubb.
