Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly whom you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 17.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Taysom Hill – QB11 on StatHero, QB8 on FantasyLabs
Atlanta is 30th in rush defense DVOA and 26th in pass defense. They have allowed the most rushes and third-most yards to quarterbacks. In three starts this season, Hill has attempted at least 20 passes and rushed at least 10 times in each of those contests. He’s put up 17.38, 9.46, and 26.3 DraftKings points. Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Saints are favored by 3.5 points, so the game script should be favorable for Hill.
Ben Roethlisberger – QB24 on StatHero, QB19 on FantasyLabs
I know, it’s gross, but the Steelers don’t/can’t run the ball and the Ravens are stout defending the run. Pittsburgh passes at the second-highest rate, while Baltimore is 30th in pass defense DVOA. A match made in heaven. These teams met five weeks ago, and Roethlisberger went 21-of-31 for 236 yards and two touchdowns, good for 19.34 DraftKings points.
Running Back
David Montgomery – RB10 on StatHero, RB5 on FantasyLabs
Montgomery is one of the few bellcow running backs left. He gets the between-the-20s work, targets in the passing game, and the goal line opportunities. On the season, he’s exceeded point expectations 80% of the time. He’s carried 22, 21, and 18 times over the last three games. While he hasn’t exceeded 65 yards rushing, he’s scored three touchdowns. Over the last five games, he’s received two, nine, six, seven, and nine targets. In the red zone, he’s garnered nine, seven, two, one, and six rushes with a total of seven targets. The Vikings are 25th in rush defense DVOA.
Devin Singletary – RB18 on StatHero, RB9 on FantasyLabs
What’s a guy gotta do to get some respect in these streets? Over the last four games, Singletary has scored double-digit DraftKings points in each contest. He has two games with over 20 rushes, has scored a touchdown in three with a two-touchdown performance last week, has two games with six and seven targets, and has nine, five, and five red-zone rushes in the past three. The Jets are 26th in rush defense DVOA, and the Bills are favored by 16 points, so both the matchup and game script are favorable.
D’Onta Foreman – RB16 on StatHero, RB9 on FantasyLabs
The Titans backfield has been a three-headed monster since Derrick Henry went down. That said, last week, Foreman played in 65% of the snaps, the first time, one back had received more than 40%. It was one week, so that is not a trend. That said, it happened, so it’s possible this could be the New World Order. Over the last five games, Foreman has gone over 100 yards three times and received 26, 22, and 19 carries. He’s scored three touchdowns and has been utilized in the red zone with three, one, three, three, and six rushes over the last five games. Houston is 24th in rush defense DVOA, so the matchup is favorable. There is just some uncertainty as to his exact role.
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf – WR12 on StatHero, WR7 on FantasyLabs
Volume is always a concern with the Seattle passing attack. Russell Wilson has attempted at least 30 passes a laughable six times this season. Metcalf has received double-digit targets in only two games and gone over 100 yards once. That said, he has scored four touchdowns in the last two games, with three in the most recent, and the Cardinals should score points in this one, which would force the Seahawks out of their shell.
Christian Kirk – WR19 on StatHero, WR9 on FantasyLabs
I like the Cardinals passing attack a lot this weekend. Seattle is eighth in rush defense DVOA but only 27th in pass defense. Kirk has received nine, nine, and 12 targets over the last three games,
Hunter Renfrow – WR24 on StatHero, WR10 on FantasyLabs
The Raiders can make the playoffs if they win, so they will be highly motivated. While the running game will likely be the main focus, Renfrow should still be heavily involved. The targets have been all over the map, but over the last six games, he’s received nine, three, five, 14, 10, and nine. He’s scored three touchdowns over that span and gone over 100 yards in three. The last time he faced the Chargers back in Week 4, he caught six of eight targets for 45 yards and a touchdown.
Tight End
There are no contests with a TE slot.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
St. Brown’s Parade (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyreek Hill)
I will block Hill and make this a 1v1 with St. Brown and Christian Kirk. I’ve mentioned that I like the Cardinals passing attack this weekend and the FantasyLabs projections have Kirk slightly higher than St. Brown.
