Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly whom you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 17.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
There aren’t any egregious spreads at the quarterback position.
Justin Herbert – QB8 on StatHero, QB4 on FantasyLabs
The Chargers are sixth in pass rate, so they will likely be slinging it around in this one. Herbert has attempted at least 35 passes in 13 games with five of those over 40. Back in Week 12 when the Chargers faced the Broncos, Herbert went 28-of-44 for 303 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He’s produced at least 20 DraftKings points in each of the last six games and has gone over 30 four times this season with a high of 45.82.
Running Back
Dalvin Cook – RB3 on StatHero, RB11 on FantasyLabs
The Packers are 31st in rush defense DVOA. Unfortunately, Cook likely won’t be able to take advantage since Sean Mannion will be at quarterback and the Vegas Dashboard has the Vikings as 13-point underdogs.
Nick Chubb – RB7 on StatHero, RB2 on FantasyLabs
The once-vaunted Steelers Curtain has morphed into Charmin tissue as the defense is 30th in rush defense DVOA. The Browns have the fourth-best run-blocking unit according to PFF and rush at the seventh-highest rate. As Scooby would say, “Ruh roh.” Chubb has scored eight touchdowns on the season, carried at least 20 times in five games, and exceeded 100 yards in five contests.
Damien Harris – RB29 on StatHero, RB19 on FantasyLabs
The Patriots are favored by 16.5 points according to the Vegas Dashboard, so the game script should be favorable for Harris. He’s also scored in three straight games and gone over 100 yards in the past two. That said, he has been limited in practice this week with a hamstring issue, and Rhamondre Stevenson is set to return this weekend, so he may not get all the work.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs – WR4 on StatHero, WR10 on FantasyLabs
The matchup is fantastic as the Falcons are 28th in pass-defense DVOA. They are also 26th in rush defense DVOA, and the Bills are favored by 14.5 points, so the run game could see increased volume. Diggs has only surpassed 100 yards twice this season and gone over 20 DraftKings five times.
Diontae Johnson – WR18 on StatHero, WR11 on FantasyLabs
Johnson has received nine and five targets over the last two games. Prior to that, he received double-digits in 10 of 12 contests. Johnson is the alpha and should see around 10 targets in this, especially since the Steelers have difficulty running the ball, and the Browns have a good run defense. The last time he faced the Browns, Johnson caught six of 13 targets for 98 yards. Johnson has failed to produce 10 DraftKings points in only one game and has gone over 20 four times with a high of 33.5.
Amon-Ra St. Brown – WR22 on StatHero, WR12 on FantasyLabs
Over the last four games, St. Brown has received 11, 11, 12, and 12 targets. He’s caught eight, eight, nine, and 10 with at least 85 yards in three of those games. He also scored a total of three touchdowns. Now he faces a Seahawks team that is 28th in pass-defense DVOA.
Hunter Renfrow – WR27 on StatHero, WR15 on FantasyLabs
The Raiders will have to tilt towards the air as the Colts are third in rush defense DVOA. Their defensive system filters passes to the short-and-inside areas of the field. That aligns with the routes that Renfrow runs. He only received three and five targets in the last two games, but he did score a touchdown, and prior to that, he went for over 100 yards in three straight and received 14, 10, and nine targets. He should approach double-digits in this one.
Tight End
Foster Moreau – TE24 on StatHero, TE11 on FantasyLabs
Moreau has played around 90% of the snaps when replacing Darren Waller, who is out again. He’s received four and nine targets and gone for 65 and 67 yards. It’s nothing earth-shattering, but it’s been solid production. Now he faces a Colts team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points and most targets to the position.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Hurts and Ernie (Jalen Hurts, Austin Ekeler, Christian Kirk, Kyle Pitts)
Usually, I look for a block, but things worked out well without one. I focused in on Ekeler and went with Nick Chubb, who has a fantastic matchup, is projected for three more points than Ekeler, and is $700 cheaper. I then went to the tight end position and selected Foster Moreau over Kyle Pitts, who is $1,600 cheaper but projected for less than one point. All the savings allow an upgrade from Jalen Hurts to Patrick Mahomes, who is projected for four more points. The final piece of the puzzle is Odell Beckham Jr. over Christian Kirk, who is projected for less than one fewer point.
