Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly whom you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 15.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts – QB8 on StatHero, QB5 on FantasyLabs
Hurts is questionable for this game. If he does play, this is an interesting game because the Football Team tilts teams toward their 27th pass-defense DVOA as they are stout against the run (7th rush defense DVOA). That said, they could possibly be missing multiple defensive linemen due to COVID.
The Eagles have been the most run-heavy team since Week 7. With the injuries on the defensive line, the Eagles could just ground and pound, which is a shame because Hurts could be in a good spot. That still could transpire, and any increase in passing volume could boost the probabilities of a ceiling game because the rushing has been there. He’s had at least 10 carries in six games this season. So many variables are up in the air so monitoring the news is a must.
Editor’s note: Washington-Eagles has been postponed to Tuesday.
Taysom Hill – QB9 on StatHero, QB16 on FantasyLabs
Hill has scored 26.3 and 27.66 DraftKings points in the last two starts. He’s rushed 11 times in each game, racked up 73 and 101 yards, and scored two touchdowns last week on the ground. He is not a good passer, though, and is facing the 5th pass-defense DVOA unit in the league. The Bucs have been gashed by running quarterbacks this season — Josh Allen rushed 12 times for 109 yards and a touchdown, Jameis Winston rushed four times for 40 yards, and Jalen Hurts went 10 for 44 yards and two touchdowns. All three of those are much better passers than Hill, so the Bucs should be able to devote more resources to the rushing attack.
Running Back
Elijah Mitchell – N/A on StatHero, RB6 on FantasyLabs
Mitchell is recovering from knee and concussion issues. If he’s able to go, then it’s a fantastic matchup against a Falcons team that is 23rd in rush defense DVOA. Since Mitchell is not in the StatHero pool, it’s irrelevant but thought it was noteworthy to write up anyway. His status would have an impact on Jeffery Wilson.
Jeffery Wilson – RB20 on StatHero, RB52 on FantasyLabs
Wilson has three games this season with at least 10 carries. He’s rushed for 28, 50, and 56 yards on 10, 19, and 13 carries respectively. He also received a total of three targets. With Mitchell out, Wilson played in 59% of the snaps last week.
Editor’s note: If Mitchell is ruled out, Wilson’s projection would greatly improve. Visit the Player Models to see the update.
Aaron Jones – RB6 on StatHero, RB16 on FantasyLabs
Jones scored 21.5 DraftKings points last week, but that was because he scored two touchdowns. He only received five carries and three targets. Now he faces a Ravens team that is fourth in rush defense DVOA and has allowed the eighth-fewest targets to running backs. To complicate matters, he did not participate in practice on Thursday due to an illness and knee issue.
Saquon Barkley – RB8 on StatHero, RB14 on FantasyLabs
Barkley scored 18.5 DraftKings points last week as he caught a touchdown pass. He rushed 16 times for 64 yards and hauled in all three of his targets for 31 yards. Dallas is 19th in rush defense DVOA. Barkley has been getting solid volume, so I land somewhere in the middle of these two rankings.
Myles Gaskin – RB12 on StatHero, RB14 on FantasyLabs
Gaskin has received double-digit carries in seven games, has been a consistent option in the passing game, and has 22 red-zone carries over the last five games. The matchup against the Jets is pristine as they are 31st in rush defense DVOA, and Miami is a 10-point favorite at home, so the run game should be heavily featured. That said, Malcolm Brown is set to return, and he could vulture some of the goal line opportunities.
Rashad Penny – RB14 on StatHero, RB27 on FantasyLabs
Penny was fantastic last week, rumbling 16 times for 137 yards and two touchdowns. That was against a Texans team is 28th in rush defense DVOA. He faces a Rams team that is second in rush defense DVOA.
Wide Receiver
Deebo Samuel – WR14 on StatHero, WR7 on FantasyLabs
Deebo is questionable, but he was full participant in practice on Wednesday. He’s scored at least 10 DraftKings points in every game this season and received double-digit targets in four games. What provides such a high floor for Deebo is the 37 rushes which he’s translated to 240 yards and six touchdowns. In the red zone, he has 10 rushes and four touchdowns on the season.
Ja’Marr Chase – WR17 on StatHero, WR9 on FantasyLabs
Both teams like to play slow, so volume could be an issue. That said, the Broncos are 19th in pass-defense DVOA, and Chase can break one on any given play. He has at least eight targets in each of the last two games and seven in total on the season. He’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games with five above 20 and two 30-burgers.
DJ Moore – WR25 on StatHero, WR15 on FantasyLabs
Cam Newton kind of sucks as a passer, and the Bills are second in pass-defense DVOA. What could go wrong here? That said, the Bills best cornerback is out, and Moore has received at least seven targets in every game this season, with 10 in each of the last two games.
Tight End
Dawson Knox – TE8 on StatHero, TE4 on FantasyLabs
I side with the StatHero ranking here. The Panthers have allowed the second-fewest targets to the position, and Knox has seven games with five or fewer targets.
Ricky Seals-Jones – TE16 on StatHero, TE24 on FantasyLabs
StatHero doesn’t have all the tight ends in the pool, so the rankings are slightly off. The matchup is fantastic for the Football Team tight ends as the Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to the position. Unfortunately, it may not be Seals-Jones who benefits the most. He played in 46% of the snaps while John Bates was in on 71% last week. Seals-Jones did out-target Bates, 4 to 2, but the playing time is a concern.
Editor’s note: Washington-Eagles has been postponed to Tuesday.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Attention Seekers (Justin Jefferson, Tua Tagovailoa, David Montgomery, Chris Godwin)
I’m going to block Justin Jefferson in the MVP slot. Tua and Kirk Cousins are both priced the same, so I like the Cousins/Jefferson stack. Jefferson cannot have a big game without Cousins, so hoping that the Dolphins go more ground and pound against the Jets. I love the Packers passing game this week, especially since Baltimore is stout against the run. Adams is $3,100 more expensive than Chris Godwin, but he projects for three more fantasy points. That leaves enough salary for Javonte Williams, who splits the work and has a tough matchup, but he’s projected for less than one point below David Montgomery.
