Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Cash games, in particular, have gotten especially tough. You can try your luck in 50/50s or double-ups, but those contests are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there’s no guarantee that you’re not going to get scooped by a shark.
Luckily, StatHero gives DFS players a new option for cash games. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a set lineup of your choosing. That means you know exactly whom you’re facing in advance and can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I don’t know about you, but I definitely like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea using the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and teams to fade on StatHero in Week 13.
Notable Pricing Discrepancies
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find notable misprices compared to player projections in our Player Models. However, you won’t always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you are targeting. You still may be able to use a player who is not on this list but is projected for more raw points based on your strategy for building out your roster vs. the opposing lineup.
Quarterback
Derek Carr – QB13 on StatHero, QB8 on FantasyLabs
The Football Team is fifth in pass rush while the Raiders are 21st in pass blocking, so I get it. That said, Washington is 28th in pass coverage and 30th in pass-defense DVOA. The Raiders are implied for a healthy 25.5 points per the Vegas Dashboard, and this game is one of three with a total of at least 50 points. Translation: points should be scored in this one, and they should come via the passing game, especially since Washington is seventh in rush-defense DVOA while the Raiders are 31st in run blocking.
On the season, Carr has attempted 35 passes in eight games with three of those above 40 and has produced over 20 DraftKings points six times.
Matt Ryan – QB24 on StatHero, QB16 on FantasyLabs
I think Ryan is toast and lean towards the StatHero ranking here. That said, the Bucs are sixth in rush defense DVOA, so the path of least resistance is through the air. In addition, the Bucs are implied for 30.5 points, so Ryan will have to sling it around in order to keep pace. Over 40 pass attempts are well within the range of outcomes. What Ryan does with those is another question, but it’s all about opportunities.
Running Back
Antonio Gibson – RB10 on StatHero, RB5 on FantasyLabs
Over the last three games, Gibson has carried the ball 24, 19, and 29 times. He’s gone for 111, 95, and 64 yards with two touchdowns over that span. He’s also coming off a game in which he received seven targets, a season-high. In the red zone, he’s garnered six, six, and eight targets. JD McKissic has been ruled out due to a concussion, so he should truly carry the load this weekend.
Elijah Mitchell – RB19 on StatHero, RB7 on FantasyLabs
On the season, Mitchell has averaged a positive 8.16 Plus/Minus and exceeded point expectations 70% of the time. He’s carried 27 times in each of the past two games and racked up 133 and 91 yards. He has 11 red-zone carries on the season.
Wide Receiver
DeVonta Smith – WR16 on StatHero, WR29 on FantasyLabs
Smith has received at least nine targets only twice this season. Over the last five games, the target count has been four, six, six, six, and three. The Jets are 30th in rush-defense DVOA, so a ground-and-pound approach is likely in the cards for Philly. For the first seven weeks of the season, the Eagles rushed 39% of the time. Since Week 8, that number has ballooned to 64%!
Tight End
Logan Thomas – TE8 on StatHero, TE16 on FantasyLabs
I also side with the StatHero ranking here. Thomas missed six games but returned last week. He only caught three of six targets for 31 yards, but he played in 79% of the snaps, and the Raiders have been the second-most generous in terms of fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Foster Moreau – TE18 on StatHero, TE9 on FantasyLabs
Darren Waller is out, so Moreau will be THE guy at tight end for the Raiders. The last time Waller missed a game, Moreau caught all six of his targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. He played in 100% of the snaps that game.
Teams to Target
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. For starters, you are allowed to duplicate a specified number of your opponent’s picks. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the lineup. I would recommend using as many of the duplicated players as possible. Then, we can pick on the players in our opponent’s lineup that are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller contests for this reason. In the 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 contests, there are fewer variables in play with fewer players, which makes it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero utilizes tight end premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which awards bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Charged Up (Justin Herbert, Elijah Mitchell, Keenan Allen, Noah Fant)
I’m going to select Mitchell for the block since there is no other running back in his price range that can compare. Then Foster Moreau is the easy selection at tight end since that is the biggest discrepancy on the slate. Moreau projects two points better than Fant at a $1,200 discount. The price savings allows us to go with the Bucs stack of Tom Brady and Chris Godwin to battle the Herbert/Allen stack. Brady projects for almost two points better than Herbert, while Allen has a slight advantage over Godwin.
Mattison Blues (Alexander Mattison, Justin Herbert, George Kittle)
This is one of the few times I feel okay not utilizing a block, as I want to take advantage of Foster Moreau. Sure, the projection is four points lower than Kittle’s, but he’s $4,500 cheaper, and I could see both players putting up a similar score. The price savings allows us to insert Jonathan Taylor into the MVP. Taylor has the highest projection on the slate and is in a fantastic matchup against a Texans team that is 25th in rush defense DVOA. Finally, Tom Brady is inserted to go against Herbert, and he has a two-point better projection.
