In this article, I’ll be using historical touchdown production and regression to analyze running backs who are candidates for decreased production in 2018.
Todd Gurley (Current 2018 ADP: RB1)
2017 stats: 13 rush TDs, 6 rec TDs (19 total TDs)
I love Todd Gurley – and he deserves his No. 1 overall ADP at this point – but it’s unlikely he’s going to repeat his 19 TD performance from 2017. Despite this, I don’t think Gurley owners need to worry that much: He still led the league in scrimmage yards last year, and he’ll still have plenty of volume in 2018, especially in the red zone.
But 19 total TDs is simply ridiculous. Since 2012, there have been only six total instances when a running back has scored more than 14 total TDs in a single season. Note that no player has ever scored more than 14 TDs two years in a row.
- Arian Foster in 2012 (17 total)
- Jamaal Charles in 2013 (19 total)
- Marshawn Lynch in 2014 (17 total)
- Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 (16 total)
- David Johnson in 2016 (20 total)
- Gurley in 2017 (19 total)
In particular, Gurley’s six receiving touchdowns stand out as a huge outlier. Prior to 2017, Gurley had a total of zero receiving touchdowns in his first two seasons. Most of that is Jeff Fisher’s fault, but six receiving touchdowns is still unlikely to be the norm for Gurley. For perspective, last season Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey had only five receiving TDs each.
Finally, let’s discuss Sean McVay. Before Gurley’s 19 touchdowns last year, McVay backfields had averaged a modest 11.0 total TDs per season. Gurley’s 2017 season simply isn’t consistent with McVay’s statistical history.
Even if Gurley continues to outperform McVay’s historical TD production, it will be a modest improvement – not a drastic one. Top-five RBs have averaged 10.76 rush TDs and 2.76 receiving TDs over the past six years, and that feels much more appropriate for Gurley moving forward. In-house oddsmaker Sean Koerner has Gurley projected for just south of 15 total TDs this year, and that might even be on the optimistic side. Based on historical RB production and McVay’s personal coaching history, Gurley could very well be in the 12-14 TD range in 2018.
Kareem Hunt (Current 2018 ADP: RB8)
2017 stats: 8 rush TDs, 3 rec TDs (11 total TDs)
Kareem Hunt should decrease his touchdown total in 2018, not because he over-performed in 2017, but rather because of Andy Reid’s coaching style. Since 2012, Reid has consistently given RB2s a substantial number of touches, despite having great RB1s on his roster:
Last season, therefore, stands out as a year when this unexpectedly didn’t occur. Spencer Ware was injured, leaving Charcandrick West as the RB2 for the third straight year, and West received only 52 touches (but still four TDs). This isn’t consistent with Reid’s historical usage for RB2s. Accordingly, we should view this as an indictment on West’s current ability rather than a monumental change in Reid’s coaching style.
In 2018, we’ll see the return of Ware, who in 2016 earned 247 touches on the way to 1,368 total yards and five total TDs in a lead back role for 14 games. The Chiefs also return West, along with new additions in Kerwynn Williams and Damien Williams. Despite Reid’s excellent historical backfield production (10.8 rush TDs, 4.5 receiving TDs per season), it’s unlikely Hunt will repeat his 11 total TD performance in 2017, as he’ll be facing legitimate competition for touches. Sean Koerner projects Kareem Hunt for just less than 10 TDs this season, and it’s possible he could have even more downside risk than that. He could definitely be in the 7-9 TD range if Reid’s coaching history holds up.
Christian McCaffrey (Current 2018 ADP: RB15)
2017 stats: 2 rush TDs, 5 rec TDs (7 total TDs)
This one was tough because I actually like Christian McCaffrey this year, but I can’t ignore Norv Turner’s track record. To be fair, Turner likes to throw the ball to RBs, ranking ninth among 2018 play-callers in RB targets per game. However, he ranks 22nd in RB rush attempts, 22nd in RB receiving TDs, and 19th in RB rush TDs for the past six seasons.
If Norv utilizes McCaffrey similarly to how he was used in 2017 – and C.J. Anderson earns the early-down back role in the offense – then McCaffrey’s touchdown production is likely to regress. Let’s not get carried away, however: Regression for McCaffrey still likely keeps him as an RB2 in all formats due to his exceptional receiving volume.
If instead McCaffrey earns more carries this year (as many analysts expect) with Jonathan Stewart gone, he may improve his rushing production enough to offset a near certain decline in receiving touchdown production. Further, it’s possible he does receive a larger role in the red zone. He got just five carries inside the 10-yard line last season, but it’s worth noting he played all the snaps with the first team and got a goal-line carry in the first week of the preseason. There’s certainly a large amount of volatility in his role and touchdown production this upcoming season. All told, his floor is still very high, but his ceiling is capped by Turner, and it’s likely we witness McCaffrey’s touchdowns regress in 2018 even as his holistic production may improve.
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Alex Collins (Current 2018 ADP: RB20)
2017 stats: 6 rush TDs, 0 rec TDs (6 total TDs)
I’ve got nothing against Alex Collins, but Marty Mornhinweg is one of the worst offensive play-callers for running backs in the NFL. His backfields historically average 6.8 rush TDs and 1.8 rec TDs (which is horrible, by the way), and those averages are being lifted by last year’s 12 total TD effort.
With the return of Kenneth Dixon to the mix in 2018, and with only 8.6 total TDs to go around, it’s very likely that Dixon, Collins, and Javorius Allen will all cut into each other’s opportunities, rendering all three of them no better than FLEX options. If Collins does seize the bell cow role in Baltimore, then he could approach Sean Koerner’s median TD projection of around 8.0. Nonetheless, there is downside given Mornhinweg’s history. Mornhinweg is seriously the worst.
Mark Ingram (Current 2018 ADP: RB25)
2017 stats: 12 rush TDs, 0 rec TDs (12 total TDs)
This one shouldn’t surprise you. With Alvin Kamara’s prolific ascension in 2017 and Mark Ingram’s four-game suspension to start 2018, sentiment has already turned against Ingram, as evidenced by his fall to RB25 in current ADP as of this writing. Nonetheless, I’d argue that people are still not fading Ingram strongly enough.
Since 2012, Sean Payton has produced the second-most productive backfields in the NFL, averaging 13.4 rush TDs and 4.6 receiving TDs per season. That said, much like Josh McDaniels in New England, Payton has historically distributed these 18 total TDs per season among multiple backs. Take 2016 as an example of this:
- Ingram: 6 rush TDs, 4 rec TDs
- Tim Hightower: 4 rush TDs, 1 rec TD
- Travaris Cadet: 4 rec TDs
- John Kuhn: 4 rush TDs, 1 rec TD
Payton’s exclusive deployment of just two backs in 2017 is unprecedented in his career with the Saints. Moreover, New Orleans’ drafting of Boston Scott out of Louisiana Tech underscores Payton’s ardent belief in diversifying his backfield usage. Even if Scott doesn’t have a large role this season, Payton is likely to utilize multiple backs.
Add in that this year Ingram turns 29 years old – an age at which we see consistent decline in RB production across the league – and you have a potent recipe for Ingram’s decreased workload. That Ingram is suspended for four games is just the nail in the coffin. Sean Koerner also projects Ingram at just over seven total TDs this season (in 12 games), which is a massive decline from his 12 TDs in 2017.
Stay tuned for Part 5 of my series on historical opportunity statistics where I break down running backs with TD upside in 2018.
Photo credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured above: Mark Ingram
