In the weekly Fantasy Trends, we leverage the Trends tool to find quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs with notable data points for the upcoming main slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
In recent weeks, we examined running back workload stats and wide receiver air targets and yards after catch. This week, we’ll be examining offensive line play and the magnitude of its effect on running backs’ fantasy production.
To evaluate offensive line play, we’ll be using Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards metric, which attempts to separate offensive line play from running back skill, but this is obviously impossible.
There are instances when the offensive line creates a perfect hole, but the running back misreads the play, leading to a loss of yardage. Conversely, there are instances when the defensive line stuffs the intended gap, but the running back uses his lateral quickness and vision to create something out of nothing.
Still, Adjusted Line Yards is a good start.
By applying statistical weight to different kinds of run plays, we can at least measure the effectiveness of a team’s rushing offense in the trenches. I compiled Adjusted Line Yards data for every NFL team from the past three seasons and separated teams into quartiles of performance. I then used our Trends tool to analyze the performance of running backs on teams in each quartile.
If running back fantasy performance is primarily a combination of opportunity and individual skill, then Adjusted Line Yards should have little effect on our results. After all, if opportunity is all that matters, then volume of rush attempts should trump rushing efficiency. However, if offensive line play is in fact a large contributing factor to fantasy performance, we should see meaningful differences in the results for each quartile.
Full Results
Trend-Based Takeaways
Let’s begin by looking at results from this season. We can clearly see that teams in the upper 25th-percentile of Adjusted Line Yards have produced running backs with excellent fantasy production. These running backs boast by far the highest Average Actual Points, Plus/Minus and Consistency measures.
Interestingly, DFS players are rostering lower 25th-percentile running backs at a reasonably high 5.8% ownership, despite the fact that these backs are not returning value on their salary and feature a dreadfully low 34.8% Consistency Rating. Moreover, this trend also applies to our results for the 2017 season. This indicates that DFS players are not properly weighting offensive line play in their decision-making.
There are also a few interesting big-picture trends happening here. Holistic running back ownership has declined for three straight seasons: Ownership was 8.2% in 2016, it fell to 7.5% in 2017 and it’s at an all-time low of 6.6% this season. The only viable explanation for this is that DFS players are using their flex position to roster wide receivers more frequently than running backs. If you’re looking for a contrarian position in tournaments, consider rostering a running back rather than a wide receiver at your flex.
As running back ownership has declined, so too has ownership for the upper 25th-percentile. Currently, these running backs boast an ownership of 8.8%, which is the lowest it has been in three seasons. Target these lesser-owned running backs on teams with high Adjusted Line Yards to gain access to their current +3.31 Plus/Minus.
Other Implications
Our analysis demonstrated that offensive lines have a meaningful effect on running back fantasy performance. In particular, teams in the lowest quartile for Adjusted Line Yards have limited running backs over the past three seasons.
Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joe Mixon
For example, in 2017, breakout star Joe Mixon averaged a paltry 3.5 yards per carry for the Bengals, who ranked 24th in Adjusted Line Yards. Mixon finished as the PPR RB34. This season, the Bengals’ offensive line has improved to 13th overall, and Mixon has averaged 4.6 yards per carry on his way to PPR RB10 status when healthy.
In 2016, All-Pro Todd Gurley faced similar struggles with a poor offensive line. The Rams ranked 29th in Adjusted Line Yards that season, and Gurley averaged just 3.2 yards per carry. He finished the season as PPR RB18. The past two seasons, the Rams’ offensive line has ranked in the top-5 in Adjusted Line Yards, resulting in two straight PPR RB1 seasons for Gurley.
Are those two examples cherry-picked for visceral impact? Maybe. But the point remains: Offensive line play is absolutely worth monitoring when rostering running backs in DFS.
Players Who Fit Our Trend in Week 8
Running backs who receive a high volume of passing targets mitigate poor offensive line play by adding crucial receiving upside. Accordingly, below I have highlighted running backs who play for teams in the bottom 25th-percentile of Adjusted Line Yards and average fewer than four targets per game. These running backs have produced a Plus/Minus of -0.65 this season compared to a baseline Plus/Minus of +1.21 for all running backs in our sample.
Be cautious rostering these kinds of players, and consider fading them unless their price is appropriately low:
- David Johnson: $6,700 DraftKings
- LeSean McCoy: $5,500 DraftKings
- Dalvin Cook: $5,300 DraftKings
- Latavius Murray: $4,900 DraftKings
- Lamar Miller: $4,700 DraftKings
- Chris Ivory: $4,400 DraftKings
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players mentioned here. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured Above: Todd Gurley
