In my previous article analyzing the streaming quarterback strategy, I emphasized the limited upside of streaming quarterbacks off waivers each week. So, what should you do instead, especially if you’re a proponent of the Late Round QB strategy?
In this article, I explore what historical ADP trends have to teach us about quarterback draft strategy and how you can use this data to target quarterbacks in 2018 drafts.
Highlights:
- The opportunity cost of drafting a quarterback is at an all-time low.
- Historical ADP analysis reveals three historical quarterback tiers.
- Streaming quarterbacks from waivers offers low upside given quarterbacks’ low opportunity cost.
One quick note: I’ll be referencing Leverage in this article. Leverage is an Action Network metric that normalizes fantasy points for a given season. When you read “Leverage,” think “Fantasy Points + Positional Scarcity.” For a more detailed breakdown on Leverage and its uses, check out my article where I first introduce Leverage.
Quarterbacks’ Opportunity Cost Is at an All-Time Low
ADP reports have shown that quarterbacks are currently being drafted later than they ever have in fantasy history. Public sentiment has firmly tilted against selecting quarterbacks in early rounds. Back in 2014, you were a contrarian if you waited on the quarterback position. Now you’re a contrarian if you take one early.
The trend of fading quarterbacks has not been isolated to early-round selections. It has affected all quarterbacks throughout every round of the draft. Because fantasy players are selecting top quarterbacks later in the draft, it naturally devalues all other quarterbacks, causing them to slip as well. This year, fantasy players are drafting top-12 quarterbacks a full two rounds later than their historical averages:
Perhaps the current trend of fading quarterbacks is a good one. Maybe the Late Round Quarterback strategy sparked a revolution in quarterback valuation that more accurately approximates quarterbacks’ value added vs. risk.
But, then again, maybe not. Maybe what we’ve witnessed over the last four years is an overcorrection driven by the bandwagon effect. It wouldn’t be the first time the fantasy football public overreacted to new drafting philosophies (e.g. the proliferation of Zero RB following the demoralizing 2014 and 2015 seasons).
To evaluate whether the current fantasy marketplace has improperly deflated QB value, it’s important to understand what may have triggered the dramatic movement we’ve seen in quarterback ADP since 2015.
Late Round QB Strategy
J.J. Zachariason pioneered the Late Round QB strategy in 2012 with his e-book Late Round Quarterback. His contrarian quarterback philosophy didn’t make an immediate impact on the public’s drafting habits, but by 2015 the public had started to come around. Zachariason’s quarterback philosophy is now an industry staple for fantasy draft strategy.
Changes to NFL Offenses
In the early-to-mid 2000s, there were two kinds of NFL teams: teams with elite quarterbacks and teams who tried to win on defense. The modern NFL looks very different. A new generation of quarterback talent has enabled offensive play-callers to embrace the efficiency of the passing game. With a larger sample of passes thrown per game, quarterback production is more predictable than it used to be.
The DFS Revolution
In the DFS world, punting QB in your lineup can be incredibly profitable given their high weekly floors. DFS players have used the principles of the Late Round Quarterback strategy to cash in weekly contests. Over time, DFS analysis has bled into the season-long world. With the Late Round QB strategy simmering at the fringe of public consciousness since 2012, punting quarterbacks in DFS reinforces the devaluation of quarterbacks in all formats.
The Devastating 2015 NFL Season
In 2015, preseason quarterback rankings busted, and fantasy players who didn’t waste early-round draft capital on top quarterbacks reaped the benefits. Before 2015, the all-time historical correlation between QB ADP Rank and end-of-season production was a respectable 0.47. But in 2015, the correlation plummeted to just 0.01. Drafters who selected Peyton Manning in the early rounds in 2015 may forever be scarred by that mistake. Drafters who faded QB that year may never overcome confirmation bias from their 2015 success.
Late Round QB Is About Value
Who really knows why quarterback value has fallen so much. Regardless, the 2018 fantasy marketplace boasts the cheapest quarterback value of all time. So, the real question is: how do we adapt to this new trend?
Zachariason, the pioneer of the Late Round QB movement, offers valuable insight about our current ADP marketplace:
“I often get the question, ‘But what if everyone drafts their quarterbacks late?’ That, to me, is the more interesting question, and one that leads to an answer so important that I felt the need to bold it. The key to late-round quarterback strategy is not simply to draft a quarterback late, but to be flexible and understand value.”
This question, and Zachariason’s response to it, is particularly important to us now in 2018. Our current fantasy marketplace is one where ‘everyone is drafting their quarterbacks late.’ We need to recognize value when it falls to us rather than blindly fading QB altogether. So, what does historical ADP tell us about recognizing quarterback value?
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ADP’s Correlation to QB Performance
In my article on historical ADP, I explained that historical projections based on ADP position rank significantly out-perform raw rankings each year. I researched and cross-referenced historical ADP reports with historical QB production for each season since 2007. By cross-referencing this data, I was able to establish an 11-year range of outcomes for each preseason Quarterback ADP Rank.
I ran correlations between pre-season ADP rank and end-of-season production for every internal quarterback sample. By analyzing the strength of these internal correlations, I was able to statistically define three historical quarterback tiers:
There’s major strategic value in understanding these historical quarterback tier breaks:
- You can use these historical tiers to predict the flow of the draft. By understanding where historical tier breaks typically occur, you can more easily identify when you should reach for a quarterback and when you can afford to wait. These tiers can also function as waymarkers, signaling when you should pivot toward or away from a late-round strategy.
- The second major function of these tiers is to liberate you to trust your intuition. Whenever you choose to target a quarterback in the draft, you shouldn’t feel pressure to select the highest-ranked quarterback on the board. Given the size of Tier 2 in particular, empower yourself to go get the guy you want, no matter where he’s ranked on your draft list. Don’t be arbitrarily tied to ADP. Draft your upside guy.
Applying Historical Tiers to 2018 Quarterback ADP
Let’s use our historical quarterback tiers to roughly group 2018 quarterbacks according to their current ADP Ranks:
Now, maybe your personal quarterback rankings look a little different than that. Good. Develop your own rankings system, or, better yet, use our Consensus Quarterback Rankings this season. Nonetheless, ADP is useful in predicting the flow of the draft for your competitors.
For example, let’s say you’re dead set on drafting a Tier 1 quarterback this season. From the table above, we can see that QB1, Aaron Rodgers, is typically drafted around pick No. 35. QB5, Drew Brees, is being selected on average 34 picks later at pick No. 69. Top-five quarterbacks all exist in the same predictive tier, so there’s no historical advantage to selecting QB1 versus QB5. Unless you just have your heart set on Rodgers specifically, you can wait 30-plus more picks and still get Tier 1 upside.
Comparing Range of Outcomes for Each Quarterback Tier
I evaluated the range of outcomes for each quarterback tier over the last four years. Each tier has its own pros and cons, which can help you determine where you should target the kind of quarterback you want to draft.
Tier 1 quarterbacks reliably offer QB1 upside, as you’d expect if you’re spending early draft capital to draft one. Tier 1 quarterbacks also typically offer a top-five average result, which is comforting. However, they are prone to bust like any of the three quarterback tiers, managing just a borderline starting QB floor. Tier 1 quarterbacks come at a high opportunity cost. You’ll likely miss out on starting running back or wide receiver value in order to select a quarterback in this tier. However, that cost does come with a benefit. Tier 1 is the most stable tier, with the highest upside and the highest overall floor.
Tier 2 quarterbacks reliably offer top-five QB upside, which is a heck of a bargain given their collective ADP. However, their average result is only borderline starting QB value. If you draft a Tier 2 quarterback who doesn’t pop, you may regret spending your seventh-round pick on a quarterback as you search waivers for streaming options. Tier 2 quarterbacks also consistently produce QB15 downside, which is pretty alarming. This quarterback tier is by far the most volatile, simultaneously offering valuable upside but disappointing downside.
Tier 3 quarterbacks are incredibly boom-or-bust. I analyzed the effectiveness of streaming quarterbacks from waivers each week. The streaming quarterback population I analyzed perfectly reflects quarterbacks in Tier 3. The results of that analysis were disappointing. Quarterbacks in this tier historically do not offer starting upside on average. You should view this tier of quarterbacks as luxury selections when you want to take a risk on an unproven quarterback like Deshaun Watson last year or Patrick Mahomes this year. Thankfully, they can be easily dropped, allowing you to play the waiver wire game and try to get Tier 1 upside by playing the matchups each week.
Targeting Quarterbacks in 2018
Quarterbacks have never been cheaper. Each historical quarterback tier offers its unique pros and cons, but all quarterbacks are currently being drafted at a huge historical discount. In 2018, don’t be afraid to be the contrarian who drafts a quarterback earlier than expected — those are the kinds of bold moves that produce championships.
Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured Above: Aaron Rodgers
