Fantasy football owners, beware: drafting Josh Allen as your top quarterback in 2024 might not be the no-brain choice it once was. During a recent episode of the Fantasy Flex podcast, seasoned analysts Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner broke down the case for and against picking Josh Allen early this season
Koerner highlighted Allen’s proven record, stating, “He’s really been the GOAT the past four seasons… He does deserve to be the top QB overall.” However, Koerner also pointed out some risks that could impact Allen’s fantasy value this year. The shift in offensive strategy under Joe Brady and the departure of key receivers such as Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis pose significant uncertainties.
Raybon agreed with the concerns, noting, “We just don’t really know how he’s going to look without Diggs, without Gabe Davis.” He further added that in regular formats he will likely be underweight on Allen compared to the field.
For fantasy managers considering Allen, it’s crucial to weigh these risks against his past performance. This year, alternatives like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, or even Patrick Mahomes might offer a more balanced payoff at their current ADPs. As Koerner put it, “There are certain guys that I’m gravitating more towards.”
Ultimately, while Allen has been a fantasy unicorn in recent years, the 2024 season could present challenges that may impact his value. Proceed with caution if you’re considering making him your top pick.
For more fantasy football QB takes, listen to the full podcast below!
2024 Fantasy Football QB Notes
On Josh Allen: There is more risk than usual entering this season with Josh Allen. He’s lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, who have been replaced with the likes of rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Khalil Shakir and tight-end Dalton Kincaid are the most productive returning players.
I think there’s less of a market for Allen because of those personnel changes, despite his fantasy track record of the past few years. If you’re relying on his rushing numbers, specifically touchdowns, that’s tough because those can be volatile.
On Jalen Hurts: Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s offenses usually rank in the top four of pace in the NFL. This sets up well for Hurts’ fantasy outlook, along with his reliable cast of receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert.
This will be Hurts’ third offensive coordinator in as many years, but this one is a good one to bring back his passing upside to what we saw before last season. Brian Johnson took over for Colts head coach Shane Steichen and couldn’t keep Hurts’ passing numbers up, but Moore could do the trick.
Hurts has three straight seasons of at least 10 rushing touchdowns. Despite Jason Kelce’s retirement and the new offensive coordinator, the “Tush Push” is unlikely to go anywhere. It’s too effective, even with Saquon Barkley now in the mix.
On Lamar Jackson: I think Derrick Henry absolutely helps Jackson because it sounds like the Ravens might give Jackson more of a leash to run this season, although, that might not be great since he tends to miss a few games.
I just think when you look at the number of passing plays that were called, there’s a lot of room for growth in this Ravens offense for Jackson. It’s his second season in Todd Monken’s offense and Zay Flowers’ second season in the league altogether.
I especially like Jackson in redraft leagues, where you can figure out a solution if something does happen to him in terms of injuries. For best ball, you’re essentially betting on a fairly healthy season.
On Patrick Mahomes: I think he’s in purgatory among the top-four quarterbacks because I’d rather have one of the other three, who are true scrambling quarterbacks.
Adding first-round pick Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, even if Rice gets suspended and Kelce continues trending downhill, Mahomes’ support cast is still better than last season. He did have career lows in yards per attempt, yards per game, touchdown rate and touchdowns per game. Will all of that suddenly bounce back toward the other end of the spectrum?
I love Mahomes’ upside, but we’ve now seen his floor, which is pretty mediocre. If you take him as your QB3 in the first three or four rounds, I think that’s a little too rich.
