Monkey Knife Fight takes a new spin on daily fantasy, combining player props and parlays. With exciting contest structures, put your football knowledge to the test and pit player performances against one another.
Check out a few picks to consider in this exciting format for Week 15 with the help of our NFL Player Props Tool.
Be sure to keep an eye on injury reports and COVID-19 news throughout the weekend.
More or Less 2/2
Jared Goff Passing Yards (200.5) vs. Kyler Murray Passing Yards (260.5)
In a Week 15 matchup with the highest total on the slate, currently at 47.5 points, the Arizona Cardinals and their high-powered offense head to Detroit to square off against the Lions, in what may shape up to be a one-sided affair, with the Cardinals currently having the highest implied team total at 30-points.
Jared Goff seems to have had a year to forget in his first season in Detroit. The Lions are the 26th-ranked offense (according to PFF), using a pass-first 62%/38% pass-to-run play calling ratio, playing at a 25.3 second per snap pace, which is the seventh-fastest in the league. Goff looks to have increased Amon-Ra Saint Brown’s role in the passing game, who has seen 12 targets in the last two weeks, catching 18 passes for 159 yards and one touchdown.
Arizona’s defense should prove a more difficult defense for Goff, ranked fourth in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). However, Goff should increase his passing cadence in hopes of keeping the matchup competitive as 12.5-point underdogs at home. This season, Goff has thrown from more than 200 yards in 10 games, and against the Cardinals this week, we’re projecting him to pass for 201.5-yards, which should trend him toward the over.
This season, Kyler Murray has been one of the more dynamic playmakers in the league, especially in leading the Arizona Cardinals. They have been one of the more dominating teams in the NFL. Murray handles under-center duties for the 13th-ranked offense, calling a more balanced approach to moving the ball down the field, using a 54%/36% pass-to-run play-calling ratio. The Cardinals and Murray should benefit this week offensively, facing a weak Lions defense ranked 31st in DVOA, only better than the New York Jets. With wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins out for an extended time, expect an uptick in production of AJ Green, Rondale Jones, Christian Kirk and Zach Ertz, as part of the redistribution of Hopkins’s team-leading 20% target share.
As 12.5-point favorites, this matchup is in danger of being a blowout, signaling additional workload for James Conner and Chase Edmonds, who is expected to return to action after missing the previous three games with an ankle injury. If ahead toward the end of the game, the Cardinals may opt to increase their run game as a clock-killing strategy, limiting Murray’s ability to reach the 261-passing yard threshold. This season, Murray has reached the mark in seven games.
However, our models project him to throw for 254.5-yards against the Lions, trending him slightly toward the under.
The Pick: Jared Goff More 200.5 passing yards, Kyler Murray Less 260.5 passing yards
More or Less 2/2
Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards (251.5) vs. Zach Wilson Passing Yards (205.5)
In a classic AFC East matchup, the New York Jets head to sunny South Florida to square off against the Miami Dolphins in a matchup with a 41-point total.
Tua Tagovailoa leads a Miami Dolphins offense ranked 25th in the league, and at times has struggled. One of the more pass-heavy teams in the league, the Dolphins prefer a 64%/36% pass-to-run play calling ratio and are among the fastest teams in the league, calling a play every 25.4 seconds, which is the 10th fastest. With rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle out after landing on the COVID-19 IR, expect DeVante Parker to see additional production, especially facing a New York Jets defense ranked last in DVOA. Responsible for a 21% target share, Parker averages eight targets per game and 13 yards per reception.
However, as 9.5-point favorites, the Dolphins may opt for a more run-heavy approach in a clock-killing situation, meaning more touches for lead running back Myles Gaskins. This season, Tua has thrown for more than 252-passing yards in three games, and our models project him to throw for 234.5-yards against the Jets, trending him well below the under.
Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has had an up-and-down season, leading a New York Jets offense ranked 27th and has struggled to find their footing. Surprisingly, the Jets have the second-highest passing rate in the league, calling a 66%/34% pass-to-run play-calling ratio and prefer a more up-tempo approach, averaging a 25 second per snap pace.
Miami, who ranks 11th in DVOA, may prove to be a challenge for the young quarterback, who more than likely will rely on veteran wideout Jamison Crowder in the passing game. Crowder, who handles 16% of the Jets’ target share, averages 6.2 targets per game and 8.7 yards per reception. A massive underdog against the Dolphins, Wilson may increase the already high passing rate in hopes of keeping the matchup competitive. This year, Wilson has reached the 206-passing yard mark in four games, and we’re projecting him to throw for 211.5-yards against the Dolphins, trending him toward the over.
The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Less 251.5 passing yards, Zach Wilson More 205.5 passing yards
