It’s officially the midway point of the 2021 NFL season, and while time is flying by, Week 10 gives us exciting matchups with high-powered offenses squaring off in ideal matchups.
Check out a few games to target in Week 10, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Opening as the highest-total game on the slate at 55-points, the Week 10 matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys features lightning-fast offenses matching up against less-than-desirable defenses.
The Falcons, led by Matt Ryan, rank as the eighth-fastest pace offense in the league, calling a play every 25.1 seconds. With first-year head coach Arthur Smith taking over the play-calling, Atlanta has continued to rely on the arm of Ryan, using a pass-first 64%/36% pass-to-run ratio. With lead wideout Calvin Ridley stepping away from the team, Ryan has found inventive ways to involve his pass catchers, Kyle Pitts, Russell Gage and Cordarrelle Patterson. The Falcons look to be a prime spot to continue to win streak, facing a Cowboys defense ranked 21st, per PFF.
The high-powered Cowboys’ offense led by Dak Prescott looks to bounce back from a 30-16 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 9. Dallas is the 12th-fastest team in the league, calling a play every 25.8 seconds (per RotoViz), and while not as dependent on the passing game as their opponents, the Cowboys skew slightly pass-heavy calling a 57%/43% pass-to-run ratio. Dallas and their receiving corps, highlighted by Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, who handle a combined 43% of the Cowboys’ target share, look to have a prime matchup against an Atlanta defense ranked 28th, per PFF.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers
Minnesota and Los Angeles are two of the more pass-friendly teams in the league, ranking in the top 10 in average plays per game. This Week 10 matchup looks to have shootout potential.
The Vikings average 69 plays per game, which is the sixth-most in the league, calling a play every 25.7 seconds, the 11th-fastest. With Kirk Cousins under center, Minnesota uses a pass-heavy 60%/40% pass-to-run ratio and relies on the lead duo in the receiving corps in Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, who see a combined 46% of the Vikings’ target share. Per Football Outsiders, the Chargers rank 20th in DVOA, setting up what looks to be a prime matchup for the receiving corps. Another wrinkle to this game appears to be the Chargers’ difficulty stopping the run, ranked 28th in run DOVA, which may signal additional opportunity for running back Dalvin Cook.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense are the second-fastest team in the league, calling a play every 24.4 seconds. Averaging 71 plays per game, also the second-most in the league, the Chargers turn to Herbert and his big-play ability to air the ball, calling an extremely pass-heavy 65%/35% pass-to-run ratio. According to PFF, Dallas ranks 15th in pass defense, which should benefit the primary weapons in the Chargers offense in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Jared Cook.
Austin Ekeler should also play a vital role in the offense from a volume perspective, seeing five or more targets in the six of the first eight games this year and carrying the ball 11 or more times in six of the first eight games of the year.
Proceed with Caution
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
Opening at 43.5-points, the lowest on the slate, the Week 10 matchup against the Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers looks ugly. Both offenses rank toward the bottom in the league, according to PFF (Detroit-26th and Pittsburgh 30th), and the Steelers defense, which is ranked 13th, per Football Outsiders, should shut down Lions quarterback Jared Goff and the Lions offense, despite being ranked seventh in pace, calling a play every 24.9 seconds.
Using Vegas as an indicator, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense should run away with the game, despite a short week, currently showing an implied team total of 26.5-points (compared to Detroit’s 17-point total). Look for Roethlisberger, who tends to call a more pass-heavy scheme, using a 64%/36% pass-to-run split to depend on Chase Claypool and Dionte Johnson, who combine for a 49% target share to methodically put points on the board, ranking 17th in pace. Running back Najee Harris should also factor into the play calling and see an uptick in production, especially if the game gets away from the Lions.
So far this season, Harris sees an average of 18.8 carries per game and looks to be an integral part of the Steelers’ offense.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Despite the Jaguars playing at the fastest pace in the league, running a play every 23.6 seconds, their Week 10 matchup looks to disappoint. The Colts are ranked 11th in defensive DVOA, and the Jaguars offense grades as the third-worst, according to PFF. Keep an eye on the status of rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who will be limited in practice this week, dealing with an ankle injury. Indianapolis also ranks second in rush DVOA, which could hamper the Jaguars’ running game.
As 10.5-point favorites, the Colts should have no problem controlling the pace in Sunday’s matchup. Indianapolis ranks 24th in pace, calling a play at a methodical 27.3 seconds on average. With quarterback Carson Wentz preferring a more balanced approach to the offense, calling a 58%/42% pass-to-run ratio, the Colts might opt to involve running back Jonathan Taylor, who leads the backfield with a 57% share of carries, in a clock-kill scheme toward the end of the game, limiting Jacksonville’s ability to put up points.
