Back in 2012, JJ Zachariason of numberFire published an e-book titled The Late Round Quarterback. In that e-book, Zachariason argued that fantasy players should wait to draft a quarterback until later rounds. Most fantasy players are at least vaguely aware of this argument. The strategy rests on a few core principles:
- Since there are 32 NFL teams but only 12 quarterbacks starting on fantasy rosters in a given week (assuming a 12-team league), there is a built-in surplus of quarterbacks on waivers in any given week.
- Because most fantasy football rosters start only a single quarterback, the position is inherently less valuable than running back or wide receiver.
- Because quarterback production is reasonably predictable, sharp players have good odds of targeting value from the quarterback position via the waiver wire.
- The availability of viable replacement-level quarterbacks via waivers (and in the late rounds of the draft) decreases the value of selecting a quarterback in an early round.
The principles of the Late Round Quarterback strategy listed above are not intended to be comprehensive. I would encourage you to read Zachariason’s e-book or visit his website for greater context.
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The Evolution of Late Round Quarterback
The Late Round Quarterback strategy has evolved since Zachariason’s 2012 magnum opus. Increasingly, fantasy players are waiting longer to draft a quarterback and choosing to stream quarterbacks from waivers each week. For these fantasy players, quarterback is as replaceable as tight end, kicker or defense.
In this article, I’ll be evaluating the effectiveness of streaming quarterbacks from waivers each week. There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence lauding the strategy’s upside, but I wanted to dig more deeply than that. If streaming quarterbacks each week is indeed an effective season-long strategy, the data should support that.
Using the FantasyLabs NFL Trends Tool to Target Streaming Quarterbacks
To evaluate the merits of streaming the QB position in season-long formats, I utilized our NFL Trends tool to analyze streaming quarterbacks from 2014-2017. If you intend to stream the quarterback position in season-long or if you’re looking to punt QB in a DFS contest, our Trends tool is extremely helpful in targeting players with upside. Seriously, if you haven’t started playing around with our Trends tool, what are you waiting for?
I ran a trend for quarterbacks priced below $6,000 in DFS contests with an expected Plus/Minus over +1.0. From week-to-week; you can and should target quarterbacks with a higher Plus/Minus than that, but setting the bar at +1.0 enabled me to gather a large enough sample to make the data more meaningful.
We can’t assume that the average fantasy player will correctly identify the exact quarterback to stream each week. Moreover, in season-long leagues (unlike in DFS), there’s no guarantee that the ideal streaming quarterback will be available on waivers in a given week. So, by casting a wider net in the sample, we can more objectively evaluate the realistic range of outcomes for the streaming strategy.
Additionally, I excluded quarterbacks from my analysis who were ranked QB1 to QB15 in preseason ADP reports for each season. In most leagues, these quarterbacks are likely drafted and/or rostered by other teams, so they likely would be unavailable via waivers. By limiting the quarterback player pool in the analysis, we can more effectively target only quarterbacks widely available on waivers for most teams in most leagues.
Analysis of Streaming Quarterbacks
Without further ado, the results of my streaming quarterbacks analysis are reported below:
As you can see from the data above, the streaming QB strategy is not as lucrative as you might think — if you’re expecting top-end production. Year to year, the streaming QB strategy provided borderline starting QB production at best and QB16+ downside at worst.
That said, the data doesn’t tell the whole story. The streaming strategy does still have its benefits despite its statistical shortcomings. By not drafting quarterbacks early in the draft, you afford yourself more opportunity to seize value at scarcer positions such as running back and wide receiver. Invariably, some players are going to bust each season (*clears throat* Trent Richardson in 2013, Zac Stacy in 2014, Brandon Marshall in 2016. I could go on…), and when those players bust, it’s essential to have depth at those key positions.
On top of that, NFL injuries are as certain as death and taxes. By leveraging more early draft capital at your skill positions, you also insulate yourself from injury risk. My statistical analysis cannot appropriately weight the value of these benefits, which is why I’m emphasizing them here.
Nonetheless, the data does indicate that the streaming quarterback strategy has very limited upside. Rather than avoiding the quarterback position entirely in your draft, consider anchoring your roster with a mid-tier quarterback selection. Current ADP reports show that guys such as Jimmy Garoppolo (QB10) or Matthew Stafford (QB11) are still available in the ninth round in most drafts. Or, even if you wait later, you could realistically pick up Ben Roethlisberger in the 10th round or Patrick Mahomes in the 11th round.
The Late Round QB strategy was sharp when JJ first wrote about it: The top QBs were going way too early in drafts. Now with the strategy becoming popularized — and perhaps even the standard currently — you can still go late round QB. You can just get much better players later in the draft. QBs still aren’t worth first-round investments in season-long fantasy, but there does exist a round where that value is worth grabbing. The QB10 in a double-digit round? That might be the best strategy currently considering the public dynamic and the data from above.
How to Approach the Quarterback Position in 2018 Fantasy Drafts
Streaming quarterbacks each week based on matchup or expected Plus/Minus still makes sense, although it is increasingly difficult to rely on waivers in season-long formats, especially in sharp leagues. With quarterbacks going later in drafts now than they ever have in fantasy football history, the opportunity cost for selecting a quarterback late is minimal. In 2018, pull the trigger on a mid-tier quarterback (still going late) to stabilize your week-to-week scoring. Then consider freeing up an additional bench spot to speculate on quarterbacks via waivers, and use our Trends tool to help you find those key waiver pickups.
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured Above: Jimmy Garoppolo
