Each week of the NFL season I will highlight risers and fallers in dynasty leagues — one player to trade for, one to trade away, one to add and one to drop.
Dynasty Risers
Trade For: Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
For those who selected Allen as a top five or even top 10 wide receiver in their dynasty drafts, this season has not started out as expected.
Through seven games, Allen has only one finish as a weekly WR1, and that was way back in Week 1. He has only two top 25 WR fantasy finishes, which has fantasy investors questioning both his talent and situation.
That is not a good idea.
Allen started the 2017 season off in a similar manner, finishing as a WR1 only twice over the first nine games, with six finishes outside the top 30. Allen then went on a tear that included four weeks as the WR4 or better and finished as the WR3 for the season.
Philip Rivers has spread the ball around this season, but Allen still commands a 25% target market share — although he has only one touchdown compared to Mike Williams’ and Tyrell Williams’ four apiece.
Expecting some touchdown regression, Allen is in store for another big second half of the season. However, you’ll have to give up a strong prospect and a pick for him — a package featuring something like Falcons rookie receiver Calvin Ridley and a 2019 first-rounder might get it done.
Add: Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers lost Jerick McKinnon. Then they lost backup Matt Breida. Then they lost Breida again. And then again.
Breida has now suffered shoulder, knee and ankle injuries since the preseason. And while the second-year back has been amazingly tough over that stretch, playing in multiple games from which most players would have been ruled out, things might have finally gone south. Breida aggravated his ankle injury in Week 7 after playing only five snaps and is questionable for Week 8.
Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Raheem Mostert
Former preseason standout Mostert has been exceptional in Breida’s place, with 165 total yards in two games on 23 touches. Mostert is almost certainly on the majority of dynasty waiver wires and makes for a smart target for those in need of some short-term RB help.
Mostert is worth a 10% to 15% Free Agent Acquisition Budget bid.
Dynasty Fallers
Trade Away: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Let’s get this out of the way: Jones showing up on this list is not about his lack of touchdown production.
Well, not exactly.
Jones has now gone 12 regular-season games without finding the end zone. He hasn’t even seen a red-zone target since Week 1. But with that said, Jones is still the WR7 this season, allowing him to retain his dynasty value as he gets ready to turn 30 in February. Even with the notorious scoring struggles, Jones’ dynasty value is holding steady — or even rising slightly — based on dynasty ADP.
Jones was the WR8 and the 16th player overall in October, representing a jump in each ranking from the previous month. With questions about Jones’ scoring upside and his heavy reliance on weekly yardage (not to mention his age), now is an ideal time to pivot to a younger option.
I’ll be attempting acquire a young, high-upside wideout such as Tyreek Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Davante Adams or Stefon Diggs in exchange for Jones.
Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Allen Hurns
Drop: Allen Hurns, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Believe it or not, Hurns actually became somewhat of a hot dynasty commodity this past offseason when he signed with the Cowboys, who were in desperate need of wideouts. With Dez Bryant and Jason Witten gone, Dallas lost 45% of its targets and 54% of its Air Yards.
Hurns, who flashed as a rookie in 2014 before struggling with injuries, had an excellent opportunity. But it has not panned out for Hurns, who is only fourth on the team in receiving yards and has one touchdown this season.
With the Cowboys’ acquisition of former first-rounder Amari Cooper and the growing role of rookie Michael Gallup, there won’t be much left for Hurns.
In leagues with less than 25 roster spots, he can hit the waiver wire.
Pictured above: Julio Jones
Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
