Using our Stacking tool found within our Player Models, this piece identifies some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Running Back
- Patrick Mahomes: $7,600 DraftKings; $9,500 FanDuel
- Kareem Hunt: $7,800 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel
The Chiefs are coming off of a bye, and enter a great matchup with the Raiders’ defense, which ranks 30th in both pass and rush DVOA. The Chiefs’ team total for the week is currently at a slate high 35.25.
The Saints’ team total of 36.25 on Thanksgiving is the only team total higher than this dating back to 2014. Choosing the correct Chiefs players will likely determine a lot of large field tournaments this weekend.
Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15).
Mahomes is very costly, but that will likely keep his ownership reasonable. He has thrown for 37 touchdowns this season, and run for two more. He is responsible for a whopping 83% of Kansas City’s touchdowns this season.
Speaking of touchdowns, Hunt is tied with Travis Kelce for the second-most receiving scores on the team (seven). Hunt has correlated very well with Mahomes this season, coming in at 0.72. That is the same correlation as Kelce, and only slightly lower than Tyreek Hill’s correlation of 0.80. It is very likely that each of those receivers are more commonly stacked with Mahomes than Hunt.
The Mahomes/Hunt stack is a great way to get exposure to this historic team total while still having a unique lineup construction.
Running Back + D/ST
- Aaron Jones: $6,700 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
- Green Bay Packers: $2,800 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel
The Packers are 14-point home favorites against the Cardinals, but their production is more likely to come on the ground than through the air. The Cardinals are allowing the fifth-least amount of DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and rank ninth in pass DVOA.
Meanwhile, their run defense has been below-average, ranking 21st in DVOA. The Cardinals rank 11th in opposing plus/minus to running backs.
The Packers offense has been noticeably more successful on the ground than through the air. Since letting Aaron Jones become a bigger part of the offense in Week 8, the team is averaging 5.43 yards per carry, first in the NFL. They are 18th in net yards per pass attempt with 6.71 in that same time frame. Jones has at least 18 DraftKings points in his past three outings, with two of those games going over 25 points.
The case for the Green Bay defense is an easy one: Not only are they facing a rookie quarterback who owns an interception rate of 4.5% and sack rate of 8.9%, they are huge favorites. Defenses favored by 10 or more points have traditionally fared very well.
Quarterback + Running Back + Tight End + Opposing Tight End
- Cam Newton: $6,600 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel
- Christian McCaffrey: $8,800 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel
- Greg Olsen: $4,100 DraftKings; $6,000 FanDuel
- Cameron Brate: $3,700 DraftKings; $4,900 FanDuel
Stacking against the Bucs has been profitable for fantasy players all season. Here are some of their defensive ranks:
Pass DVOA: 32nd
Rush DVOA: 27th
DVOA vs. #1 WR: 30th
QB Plus/Minus: 30th
RB Plus/Minus: 23rd
WR Plus/Minus: 23rd
TE Plus/Minus: 31st
The total on this game is 55 points at the time if writing. You can check out the live betting data here. In games with a total of 50 or more points since 2014, Newton is averaging over 25 DraftKings points with a plus/minus of 5.24.
McCaffrey has been nothing short of exceptional in his last five games.
Not only is he coming off of a 52.7 point explosion, but has two other games over 30 DraftKings points as well in this time frame. Tampa Bay has allowed a running back to go for 20 or more DraftKings points in four of the past five weeks.
Olsen is in an excellent matchup, and should be low-owned exposure to the Panthers. He is currently projected to be between two and four percent owned in our models. His position-mate on the other side of this game in Brate is also in position to succeed. The Panthers are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and allow the third highest plus/minus. Brate has caught 27.6% of all touchdowns thrown by Jameis Winston since the start of 2017.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Jared Goff: $6,400 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel
- Brandin Cooks: $7,000 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
- Robert Woods: $6,900 DraftKings; $7,300 FanDuel
- Kenny Golladay: $6,700 DraftKings; $7,300 FanDuel
The Rams own the second-highest team total on the slate, and come into a great passing matchup with Detroit. The Lions are 31st in pass DVOA, and have allowed an average of 29 DraftKings points to quarterbacks in their last three games.
In the three games missed by Cooper Kupp this season, Cooks and Woods have each earned 23% of the targets. No other player has more than 14%. This passing game is highly concentrated between these two players.
Golladay has been a target monster in his own right, averaging 12 over his past three games. He should continue to see 30% or more of the targets with Marvin Jones out for the year. Of corners with at least 250 coverage snaps this season, Marcus Peters is giving up the fifth-best quarterback rating, while Troy Hill has allowed the sixth-most yards per route covered of all “top three” corners in action this weekend.
Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.
Pictured above: Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16)
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
