NFL DFS Stacks Breakdown: Expect Fireworks When the Saints Take On the Rams in Week 9

Using our Stacking tool found within our Player Models, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.

Quarterback + Wide Receiver

• Kirk Cousins: $6,200 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel
• Adam Thielen: $8,900 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel

The Lions have been one of the worst pass defenses in football, ranking 30th in pass DVOA and 31st in opponent adjusted yards per pass attempt. Cousins has been a top-five fantasy quarterback on the season, and has exceeded 35 DraftKings points twice already.

Thielen has been the best wide receiver in fantasy this season by a wide margin. A good argument could be made that he is still too cheap at $8,900 on both sites. He is on pace for an absurd 148 receptions and 1,850 yards. Those are better than the numbers Antonio Brown used to put up, and Thielen is less expensive than Brown has been many times over the past few seasons.

The cornerback matchup here is also very exploitable for this pairing. Thielen plays 62% of his snaps in the slot, making it likely that Darius Slay shadows teammate Stefon Diggs instead of Thielen. Both of the other starting Detroit corners rank inside of the bottom 12 in yards allowed per route covered according to Pro Football Focus.

Running Back + D/ST

• Kareem Hunt: $7,700 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel
• Kansas City Chiefs: $2,700 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel

This stack is a great way to turn two moderately owned players into a low-owned pairing. Hunt has gone for more than 30 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, with his receiving workload being a huge spark to the increased production. After seeing just nine targets total in the first five games of the season, Hunt has six targets in three straight contests, and at least one receiving touchdown in each of them.

The Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites, putting them in great position to run against a defense ranked 27th in rush DVOA. Since 2014, running backs on the road costing $7,000 or more and favored by seven to 10 points have an average plus/minus of 2.46 and a 70% Consistency Rating.

The Browns continue to be an excellent team to target with opposing D/ST’s. Since Baker Mayfield’s first start in Week 4, Cleveland is allowing a plus/minus to opposing defenses over three. Mayfield has been sacked 17 times the past four weeks.

Quarterback + Running Back + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver

• Cam Newton: $6,600 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
• Christian McCaffrey: $7,800 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel
• D.J. Moore: $4,300 DraftKings; $5,300 FanDuel
• Chris Godwin: $4,400 DraftKings; $5,900 FanDuel

No matter the metric, Tampa Bay is likely toward the bottom if it relates to pass defense. The Bucs give up the most points to opposing quarterbacks, yielding an average plus/minus of 11. The Bucs are last in pass DVOA and in adjusted yards per attempt allowed. This is also a huge pace-up game for Carolina, with Tampa ranking third in neutral pace according to Football Outsiders.

Newton has a reputation of being a less-than-stellar passer, but he is doing his best to shed that label in 2018. He is on pace to set career bests in both completion rate (66.4%) and sack rate (4%). These numbers would shatter Cam’s previous career bests of 61.7% and 6.3%, respectively. He is also averaging 8.9 rush attempts per game, another career high. Quarterbacks averaging at least seven rushes per game have an average plus/minus of 2.12.

The Bucs are also allowing the third-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs, and struggle against the position in the passing game, ranking 29th in DVOA in that category. McCaffrey owns a 22% target share, top five in the NFL at his position. He has only missed one snap in the past three games.

Moore had a breakout performance in Week 8, going for more than 100 total yards of offense for the first time in his career. He also received a 20% target share. As one of the best receivers from the 2018 draft class, Moore is an ideal fit for an offense growing increasingly more reliant on short passing.

Godwin didn’t hit last week, but I think we have to go right back to the well. He played 72% of snaps in Week 8, second most on the team behind Mike Evans. He is no longer a part-time player. The first time Ryan Fitzpatrick was the quarterback, Godwin played on just 57% of snaps, but owned a 17% target share. He has recorded six or more targets in five of his past six games.

Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver + Opposing Running Back

• Drew Brees: $6,100 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel
• Michael Thomas: $7,600 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
• Tre’Quan Smith: $4,200 DraftKings; $5,100 FanDuel
• Todd Gurley: $9,500 DraftKings; $11,200 FanDuel

The game between the Rams and Saints has incredible shootout potential. The Vegas total at the time of this writing is all the way up at 60. Both teams are inside of the top 15 in neutral pace and top four in offensive DVOA.

We all know that the Saints possess a terrible defense, but the Rams have been very leaky since losing Aqib Talib before Week 4. Los Angeles is giving up a plus/minus more than five to opposing quarterbacks since then. They are also allowing the third-most yards per deep pass attempt, according to Pro Football Reference. This is a particular plus for Smith, who will be playing the role vacated by Ted Ginn, and who averaged 19.8 yards per reception in his final college season.

The combination of Brees and Thomas has been difficult to stop all season. Thomas is commanding 27% of the targets for the Saints, but has a ridiculous 89% catch rate for the season. His 7.5 average depth of target is a major contributor to this, and a big reason why he is reliable to score fantasy points.

If you are going to run back a Saints stack, who better to do it with than the best player in fantasy football? Gurley has scored at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight games, and has never posted fewer than 22 this season. Even if he does not go positively nuclear in this spot, it is unlikely that he ruins your lineup. Gurley is responsible for more than half of the Rams’ touchdowns this season, making it likely he scores in this contest.

Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.

Pictured above: Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley (30)

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports.