Using our Stacking tool found within our Player Models, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Tight End
- Patrick Mahomes: $7,000 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel
- Travis Kelce: $6,800 DraftKings; $7,300 FanDuel
Mahomes has easily been the best quarterback in fantasy so far this season.
Mahomes is averaging more than 30 DraftKings points this season. Sure, he’s likely to be the highest owned signal caller this week on any site, but can you really afford to pass on someone who has gone for at least 28 points in 71% of his games?
When the Chiefs and Broncos played at the start of October, Kelce had seven catches for 78 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. He has seen similar usage to Tyreek Hill, coming in with just one less target, and is top five in average depth of target at tight end.
The matchup here is markedly better for Kelce than Hill. Denver is allowing the 12th-highest average plus/minus to opposing tight ends on the season, but just the 29th highest to wide receivers. This year, the Mahomes has a 0.47 correlation with Kelce, but just a 0.10 correlation with Hill.
Running Back + D/ST
- James Conner: $7,500 DraftKings; $8,000 FanDuel
- Pittsburgh Steelers: $2,300 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel
Conner/Steelers came in as the top running back/DST stack for both sites using the Bales Model, and for good reason. Le’Veon Bell is not reporting to the Steelers this week, meaning Conner should continue to be the lead back in the Pittsburgh backfield.
Conner leads the NFL with a 79% rush attempt share, and his 14% target share is inside of the top 10 for running backs averaging at least 10 rush attempts per game.
Cleveland is 10th in opposing running back plus/minus, but has faced a few committee backfields on the year. The three running backs they have faced who have seen at least 60% of snaps have an average plus/minus greater than 14, and backs to see at least 50% of snaps have a plus/minus of 8.9. Conner is one of those running backs, having scored 38.2 DraftKings points against the Browns in Week 1.
The Steelers are way too cheap for this matchup with Cleveland, which has given up points in bunches to opposing defenses with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Mayfield has been sacked five times in three straight games, and the team is averaging just 16.3 points scored in those contests.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Jared Goff: $6,000 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel
- Brandin Cooks: $6,900 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel
- Robert Woods: $6,800 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
- Davante Adams: $7,900 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
The Rams have one of the most dynamic offenses in all of football. They lead the league in yards and are second to only the Chiefs in points scored. Combine that with a star quarterback on the other side in Aaron Rodgers (who is likely the healthiest he has been all season) coming off a bye week, and it is easy to see how this game could be a shootout.
Cooper Kupp is doubtful for Week 8, and that allows us to narrow down where the targets will go for the Rams fairly easily. Cooks and Woods combined to account for 50% of team targets in Week 7, a trend I expect to continue for as long as Kupp is out.
The Packers could be getting one or both of Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison back this week, but Adams has a clear stranglehold on the targets in this offense. He is top 10 in the NFL in Weighted Opportunity Rating. The Rams have also been susceptible to quality wide receiver play since losing cornerback Aqib Talib. They have allowed a 2.08 plus/minus since Week 4.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Tight End + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Jameis Winston: $6,000 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
- Chris Godwin: $4,500 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
- O.J. Howard: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel
- A.J. Green: $8,000 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel
As of this writing, the total on this game is at 54, third highest on the main slate. That could cause it to go overlooked, even though it is my favorite shootout spot for the weekend. Both of these teams are top 12 in neutral pace according to Football Outsiders, and both are inside of the top three in opponent plus/minus to quarterbacks.
For Winston in particular, this appears to be an excellent matchup.
Looking at the graphs from AirYards.com we can see that Winston’s completion percentage curve is very similar to the curve of the catch rate given up by the Bengals. That means Cincy is weakest where Winston is strongest, and vice versa. Winston is in a great spot to dominate this weekend.
In the 2.5 games played by Winston so far, Godwin has just four fewer targets than star receiver Mike Evans, but is $3,300 less on DraftKings and $1,500 less on FanDuel. Now that Howard is healthy, he is back to being a focal point of the offense. He was tied for second on the team in targets against the Browns with nine. The Bengals are sixth in opponent plus/minus for tight ends.
Green leads the Bengals with a 0.68 Weighted Opportunity Rating. No other Bengals player is even at 0.50. Green ranks fifth in the NFL in that statistic. The Bucs are sixth in opponent plus/minus for wide receivers.
Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.
Pictured Above: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3).
Photo Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports.
