Using our Stacking tool found within our Player Models, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Deshaun Watson: $5,500 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel
- DeAndre Hopkins: $6,900 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel
This was one of the featured stacks last week, and I think this is an excellent spot to run it back. Watson has been priced between $4,400 and $6,200 six times in his career. His average plus/minus is about 12, and he has a 100% consistency rating.
That’s right, Watson has never failed to beat his salary-based points expectation at $6,200 or less.
The last time the sophomore sensation faced off against Jacksonville, he was making his NFL debut, filling in for Tom Savage in the second half and scoring 8.7 DraftKings points. And that was when the Jags were the Jags, boasting one of the best defenses in recent seasons. In 2018, they have surprisingly underwhelmed, ranking 12th in total defense and just 17th in coverage according to Pro Football Focus.
This plays nicely into Hopkins, who will likely face off a ton against Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey is currently outside of the top 50 in PFF coverage grade, making this a matchup to exploit, not one to avoid. Even A.J. Bouye has played worse in 2018, going from PFF’s No. 6 corner to No. 20.
Hopkins also has a 2.13 plus/minus since 2014 when priced under $7,000. This is a stack where the dynamic pricing of DraftKings has greatly overvalued a beatable matchup.
Running Back + D/ST
- Kenyan Drake: $4,900 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
- Miami Dolphins: $2,500 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel
Drake should continue to split carries with Frank Gore, but the true value in using him is with what he does as a receiver. Drake has 17 targets in the past two games, including for 15% of Brock Osweiler’s targets in the quarterback’s first start of the season last Sunday. Osweiler will start again in this matchup with the Lions.
Perhaps most encouraging about Drake is the confidence Miami has in him. After Drake nearly blew the game against Chicago with a late goal-line fumble last week, Miami went right back to him on the next drive, which ended up being the game-winner. So long as Drake continues to see goal-line work in addition to his receiving action, he can maintain his ceiling while in a committee with Gore.
Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake.
Detroit is yielding the fifth-highest average plus/minus to opposing defenses this season. Matthew Stafford’s 2.6% interception rate is his highest since 2013. Miami’s special teams are also nothing to sleep on. Jakeem Grant is an electric return man who already has two return scores this season.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Baker Mayfield: $5,800 DraftKings; $7,100 FanDuel
- Jarvis Landry: $7,300 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
- Antonio Callaway: $4,300 DraftKings; $4,800 FanDuel
- DeSean Jackson: $5,800 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
This is a low price for Mayfield in this matchup with the Bucs, who have been the worst pass defense in football this season. Tampa ranks dead last in Football Outsiders pass DVOA, and gives up the highest average plus/minus to opposing quarterbacks. Mayfield is averaging 17.7 DraftKings points in three starts.
Tampa Bay is allowing the seventh-most yards per play on deep passes according to Pro Football Reference. This is significant with Mayfield owning a top-five aDOT at 10.2. Callaway has the highest aDOT on the team at 14.7, and should continue to see an uptick in targets with Rashard Higgins injured. He has captured 20.3% of Mayfield’s targets to start his career.
Landry owns roughly a 25% target share, and his aDOT of 10.5 is far better than the 6.4 number he posted in 2017. He is the unquestioned top option in this offense. Cleveland’s biggest struggle this season has been with the deep ball.
Jackson has a 17.4 aDOT, leading the team. He already has eight plays of 20 or more yards this season. Jackson leads the Bucs in receiving yards this season and was tied for the team lead in targets last week with nine. But he is still priced well below teammate Mike Evans.
Assisting this game stack is Tampa Bay’s tendency to go over the Vegas total, which it has done every game this season. The total for this game is set at 50.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Tight End + Opposing Running Back
- Tom Brady: $6,100 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel
- Josh Gordon: $5,600 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
- Rob Gronkowski: $6,000 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
- Tarik Cohen: $5,100 DraftKings; $6,600 FanDuel
Chicago has the top-ranked pass defense in terms of DVOA, but just allowed 31 points to the Osweiler-led Dolphins and could be without Khalil Mack, who missed Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury. If the Bears cannot put pressure on Brady, they could be in for a long day.
My favorite part of this stack is the value of the receiving options. Gronkowski has not been this cheap in four years, and the last time he was priced at $6,000 or less, he posted 44.9 DraftKings points. His season has disappointed so far, but Gronk still owns an elite ceiling. Helping that cause is the Bears defense, which is seventh in opposing plus/minus against tight ends.
Gordon has seen his snap percentage increase every week as a member of the Patriots, and he saw 81% of them in Week 6. Even more importantly, Gordon led the team in targets and air yards. He is very quickly becoming Brady’s preferred option, and he possesses a high ceiling as a former top-five fantasy wideout.
New England has been exposed recently against running backs in the passing game. Kareem Hunt had more than 100 yards receiving last Sunday against the Patriots, while Nyheim Hines caught seven passes against the Pats in Week 5. Back in Week 2, Corey Grant caught six balls for the Jags. Cohen has out-touched Jordan Howard in back-to-back weeks, and is the clear pass-catching option out of the backfield. He should be used often in this matchup.
Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.
Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports.
Pictured: Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) celebrates with wide receiver Will Fuller (15) and quarterback Deshaun Watson (4).
