Using our Stacking tool found within our Player Models, this piece identifies some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Deshaun Watson: $5,900 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
- DeAndre Hopkins: $7,800 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
Watson hasn’t thrown for 300 or more yards since Week 5, but he has picked up the rushing production now that his rib and lung injuries — which were so bad he couldn’t even take the team flight to Jacksonville — have fully healed. Watson has more than 30 yards rushing in three of his past four starts, finding the end-zone one time.
This Colts-Texans game features two teams that are top-eight in Football Outsiders’ situation-neutral pace metric. When these two teams met earlier this year, it was a 37-34 overtime thriller in which Watson had 35.1 DraftKings points. The Vegas total on this game is currently 49.
Hopkins has seen 34.3% of Houston’s targets with Will Fuller out of the lineup, making him one of the heaviest-used wide receivers in football. That volume gives Hopkins a remarkably high ceiling, particularly on a full PPR site like DraftKings.
Running Back + D/ST
- Alvin Kamara: $8,100 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel
- New Orleans Saints: $2,700 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel
The Bucs continue to be one of the best matchups in the NFL for opposing running backs. Here is how many total yards they have allowed to opposing running backs in the last six weeks:
Week 13 – 161
Week 12 – 181
Week 11 – 191
Week 10 – 110
Week 9 – 159
Week 8 – 155
Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Christian McCaffrey (34.1 and 32.7), Saquon Barkley (38.2), and Joe Mixon (31.8) have all gone for massive DraftKings point totals against Tampa Bay in that time frame. Kamara is one of the best running backs in football, and has the kind of two-way skill set to dominate this matchup.
Meanwhile, the Saints have been one of the best defenses in football since Week 4, allowing fewer than 20 points per game. They have also recorded 13 sacks in the past two games. Jameis Winston is no stranger to turnovers, throwing nine interceptions and fumbling four times in five starts.
New Orleans’ defense has recorded double-digit DraftKings points in four of its last six games.
Quarterback + Running Back + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Aaron Rodgers: $6,000 DraftKings; $8,100 FanDuel
- Aaron Jones: $7,200 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel
- Davante Adams: $8,400 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel
- Julio Jones: $7,900 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel
I don’t often hop on #NarrativeStreet, but I am diving headfirst into this one. There appears to be a growing amount of evidence that the Packers did not enjoy playing for Mike McCarthy. Potential animosity aside, McCarthy was very clearly utilizing a sub-optimal game-plan on offense.
Snapshot of #Packers stagnation under Mike McCarthy this year:
• Lead NFL in pass rate on first down despite Aaron Jones' 6.5 YPC on 1D
• Lead NFL in passes outside the numbers
• Lead NFL in throwaways
• 7th-lowest play action rate
• 9th-lowest pre-snap motion rate— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 3, 2018
With McCarthy now gone, it is fairly likely that the team’s offensive approach improves, even without major changes to the physical playbook.
It is easier to feel confident with Joe Philbin stepping in as the interim head coach. He was Rodgers’ offensive coordinator from 2008-11, and the star quarterback has been more effective with Philbin than without him:
- With Philbin: 65.4% completion rate, 8.34 yards per attempt, 6.4% touchdown rate
- Without Philbin: 64.5% completion rate, 7.75 yards per attempt, 6.2% touchdown rate
In this particular matchup, Rodgers will be in position to get off to a great start post-McCarthy. The Falcons are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and the highest average plus/minus. They are 31st in pass DVOA.
Jones also has a great matchup. The Falcons are allowing the second-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs, with the third-highest opponent plus/minus.
Jamaal Williams took a significant amount of work away from Jones in Week 13, but that has not been the case for the larger part of the past two months. This feels more like a last-ditch effort by McCarthy than the sign of a longer trend. Jones should go under-owned, especially since his price has come up on DraftKings.
The two receivers in this stack are volume hogs. They are each top-six in Weighted Opportunity Rating. Both of these teams are inside of the top seven in opponent plus/minus to the wide receiver position. This game has a rising total, up to 49.5 already from 47.5.
Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julio Jones
Quarterback + Running Back + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Philip Rivers: $6,500 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel
- Austin Ekeler: $6,200 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
- Keenan Allen: $7,400 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel
- Tyler Boyd: $6,100 DraftKings; $7,000 FanDuel
The Chargers are 14-point favorites against the lowly Bengals, who have been one of the worst defenses in the entire league. Cincy is one of the five worst teams in each of the following metrics: explosive plays allowed, first down YPC, pressure percentage, and first downs allowed per pass attempt (all courtesy of NFL Matchup). No team allows more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and only the aforementioned Falcons allow a higher plus/minus to the position.
While it is possible that Justin Jackson takes some rushing work from Ekeler after starring in the second half against the Steelers, he likely still takes a backseat to him in the passing game. Ekeler has 19 targets in his past two games, and he ranks fourth among running backs in yards per target (minimum 30 targets).
The Bengals are, unsurprisingly, last in DVOA against running backs in the pass game. Ekeler and Allen — who I’ve already profiled as a must-play — are the highest correlated players with Rivers.
Boyd should be one of the focal points of a passing game led by Jeff Driskel, whose aDOT is 7.51 on 74 attempts this season. He is a short-area target with an aDOT of less than 10. The Chargers are 30th in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers.
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Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams
