The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Charlotte Hornets – $11,100 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Chef Curry should be serving up a solid performance tonight as he returns to his home state for a tasty matchup. On the season, Curry has averaged 28.7 points, 7.5 boards, 6.5 dimes, and 1.5 swipes, unsurprisingly acting as the team’s catalyst.
The matchup between the Hornets and Warriors has easily the highest over/under on the slate at 226.0, adding to Curry’s elite upside.
Top Value: Lonzo Ball at Philadelphia 76ers – $7,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
On the season, Ball has averaged 12.3 points, 5.7 boards, and 4.4 dimes, though his biggest contribution has been 3.0 combined blocks/steals per contest that have made him an elite play.
Ball has a 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel due to the striking price discrepancy, and unsurprisingly, he’s projected at 31-35% ownership. Conversely, Ball’s higher price on DraftKings pegs him at 2-4% projected ownership on that site. Target him in cash games on FanDuel and GPPs on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine at Philadelphia 76ers – $8,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
LaVine has been overshadowed by DeMar DeRozan’s recent scoring outburst (69 points in his last two games), but the former has scored no fewer than 25 points in each of his last three games.
He’s got a lofty ceiling and comes in as a healthy value as well, with at least 5.2 Points/Salary on each site.
Top Value: Collin Sexton vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Sexton’s scoring has been all over the map this season, but after back-to-back duds, he bounced back nicely with a 17/7/2/2 line against the Hornets on Monday.
Portland is 20th in defensive rating and ninth in pace, which bodes well for Sexton’s outlook in a game with the second-highest over/under on the slate at 219.5. Due to his high-risk, high-reward play, Sexton is best suited for GPPs.
Overall, he’s a better value on FanDuel, where he has a 73% Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Philadelphia 76ers – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
DeRozan has gone for at least 30 points, six rebounds, and two assists in each of the last two games, and he’s fresh off a season-high 37 points in Monday’s victory over the Celtics.
DeRozan leads Chicago in usage this season at 29.1%, so he should have plenty of opportunities tonight against the Sixers.
Top Value: Kyle Anderson vs. Denver Nuggets – $4,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
After a sluggish start to the season befitting his nickname, Slow Mo has turned it around over his last three. In that span, the Memphis forward has averaged 10.0 points, 6.7 boards, 2.7 dimes, and 1.7 combined blocks/steals.
At his affordable salary, he’s projected for 5.2 Points/Salary on FanDuel and a healthy 6.2 on DraftKings with an 88% Bargain Rating.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
The big man has been great all season, but he’s been particularly good over his last two. In that span, he’s averaged 23.0 points, 13.5 boards, 4.0 dimes, and 2.0 steals.
Sabonis is projected for a bit higher ownership on FanDuel because of the discounted price, though he still comes in with at least a 90% Leverage Rating on each site due to a favorable combination of ownership and ceiling.
Top Value: PJ Washington at Golden State Warriors – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Much like Kyle Anderson above, Washington has started the season sluggishly. You wouldn’t know it based on his last two games, however, as Washington has averaged 17.5 points, 3.0 boards, and 2.0 blocks in that span.
His price hasn’t yet crept back up to account for the spike in production, so you can still reap the benefits of his affordable salary on both sites. The matchup with Golden State figures to be the highest-scoring contest on the slate.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Chicago Bulls – $10,300 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Embiid’s monster upside doesn’t need much explanation, and he’s the only player on tonight’s slate with a 70-point ceiling. On the season, the big man has a 30/18 game to his credit and two games with at least three swats.
His current ownership projection gives him a 90% Leverage Rating on DraftKings and 86% Leverage Rating on FanDuel.
Top Value: Wendell Carter vs. Boston Celtics – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Carter finds his way into this section once again thanks to a friendly salary, a friendly matchup, and a good chance to provide plenty of value.
Carter has gone for at least 15 points, 12 boards, and three assists in two of his last three games, and he’s got a Leverage Rating of 93% on FanDuel and 94% on DraftKings due to his tremendous upside.
Bonus: Jonas Valanciunas at Sacramento Kings – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
I couldn’t leave out JV here! His matchup with the Kings is the best in the Association for opposing centers, and he gets the advantage of a slate-high +4.9 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Sacramento has been gashed by opposing bigs, including three 20-rebound performances from Deandre Ayton and Rudy Gobert (twice). Valanciunas went 24/13 against the Kings last week.
If all of that wasn’t already sweet enough for you, Valanciunas has averaged 20.8 points, 15.5 boards, and 2.5 combined blocks/steals on the road compared to 19.0 points, 13.5 boards, and 1.8 combined blocks/steals at home this season. As Willie Nelson sang, “I just can’t wait to get on the road again.”
