The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Russell Westbrook at Milwaukee Bucks – $11,000 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Westbrook continues to rock the highest ceiling according to our model, as Brodie’s usage and production have gotten a boost with LeBron James (abdomen) out of action. Westbrook has averaged 19.7 points, 8.7 boards, 8.1 dimes, 1.7 three-pointers, and 1.3 steals in seven games without James while commanding a 30.6% usage rate.
Milwaukee has surrendered the third-most points to opposing points guards this season, making Westbrook a guy you can confidently splurge on for tonight’s slate. He’s a much better bang for your buck on FanDuel.
Top Value: Lonzo Ball at Portland Trail Blazers – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Lonzo was a featured value Monday against his former team, and boy did he pay off! Ball posted a 27/8/7/2 line against the Lakers on Monday and returned some serious value for those who played him in DFS lineups.
Over his last four contests, Ball has averaged 15.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 2.5 steals, though his price has only risen marginally. The Bulls/Blazers game has a healthy 220.5 over/under, and Chicago will get a crack at Portland’s lackluster defense.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Bradley Beal at Charlotte Hornets – $9,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Beal has been out of action over the Wizards’ last two games due to a personal issue, but he’s set to return tonight in a favorable matchup against a Charlotte team ranked third in pace and 26th in Defensive Rating.
In seven games prior to his absence, Beal averaged 24.9 points, 6.6 assists, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.7 triples across 36.9 minutes. His scoring isn’t quite as lofty as it’s been over the last two seasons, but Beal still has massive scoring upside to go with his improved rebounding and facilitating.
He makes a fine play on DraftKings and an excellent play on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Talen Horton-Tucker at Milwaukee Bucks – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
THT has been TNT in two games this season. Seriously, he’s averaged 22.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 combined blocks/steals, and 2.5 triples, including a career-high 28 points and four triples in Monday’s loss to the Bulls. That’s dynamite, baby!
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Portland Trail Blazers – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
DeRozan’s prolific scoring has been a big reason why Chicago is second in the Eastern Conference with a 10-4 record. With 26.9 points per game, he ranks fourth in the NBA in scoring.
Over his last two games, he’s scored 35 and 38 points and has notched at least 32 points on five occasions this season. DeRozan’s ceiling is rather high on tonight’s slate as he faces a Blazers squad ranked 23rd in Defensive Rating.
Note: DeRozan is eligible at SF on FanDuel and PF on DraftKings
Top Value: Cedi Osman at Brooklyn Nets – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Since Oct. 30, Osman’s playing time and production have trended up. In nine games during that span, he’s averaged 13.9 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.0 steals, and 3.2 triples across 26.3 minutes.
He’s hot off his best game of the season in which he demolished the Celtics with a 26/5/2/2 line. That game coincided with Evan Mobley’s (elbow) early exit. With Mobley on the shelf for at least a couple of weeks, expect Osman to take on a more prominent role with Cleveland.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Milwaukee Bucks – $10,900 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Over his last five games, AD has averaged 26.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.0 blocks, and 2.0 steals with LeBron James (abdomen) out. That includes three double-doubles, two games with at least 32 points, and four games with multiple defensive stats.
Milwaukee has been below average against opposing bigs this season, so while this isn’t the strongest matchup for Davis, it’s certainly not one from which he should shy away.
Top Value: Dean Wade at Brooklyn Nets – $3,200 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
Much like Osman above, Wade is expected to take on a larger role with Evan Mobley out of action. Wade has started each of the Cavs’ last seven games, though he’s averaged a paltry 4.6 points and 3.4 rebounds over 27.3 minutes.
While his play hasn’t been anything to write home about, Wade’s starting role and minutes in the high-20’s make him an interesting play at his bottom-of-the-barrel salary. If Kevin Love ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) is able to return tonight, he would be a great value in this spot over Wade.
Center
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,400 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Over Sacramento’s last two games, the Kings have given up 29 combined rebounds to Isaiah Stewart and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. If lesser centers can dominate the glass, surely KAT has a great opportunity to bolster his rebounding, an area of weakness thus far on the season.
Towns’ 9.6 rebounds are a career-low, though he’s remained productive in other areas with 23.2 points, 3.3 assists, 3.2 triples, and 2.7 combined blocks/steals. Consider paying up for him tonight in a matchup with the slate’s highest over/under (223.5).
Top Value: Chimezie Metu at Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Metu has now played at least 21 minutes in three straight contests, and he’s started the Kings’ last two games. In those starts, the USC product has averaged a healthy 15.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.5 triples, 1.0 block, and 1.0 steal across 28.0 minutes. He’s an absolute bargain at his current price, and playing him will allow you to get more studs into your lineups tonight.
Note: Metu is eligible at C only on FanDuel and PF only on DraftKings
