The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Tonight’s matchup with the Wolves has the highest over/under on the slate at a massive 235.5, so of course, our model loves Atlanta’s star point guard.
On the season, Trae has averaged 27.7 points, 9.4 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2.7 triples, and 1.0 steals per contest, but he’s posted 11 games with at least 50 fantasy points, one above 60 and one above 70. His matchup with the T-Wolves affords him a positive Opponent Plus/Minus and a strong Pace Differential.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Welcome to the NBA, young man! Dosunmu has taken advantage of numerous injuries over his last two games, and he figures to factor into Chicago’s game plan prominently again tonight.
Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball are both out with their respective knee injuries. Alex Caruso will be back, but he’ll be on a minutes limit. That leaves Dosunmu available to return a ton of value for DFS players. He’s averaged 18.0 points, 8.0 assists, 7.0 rebounds, 2.5 steals, 2.0 triples, and 1.0 blocks over his last two, and I’ll have heavy exposure tonight, especially on FanDuel, where his price is absurdly low.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Butler went off for his second triple-double of the season with a 19/10/10 triple-double Monday against the Raptors, and he’ll look to stay hot tonight against Portland.
Since returning from his three-game absence due to an ankle injury, Butler has averaged 16.7 points, 9.7 assists, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.7 steals. Tonight’s matchup with Portland isn’t an amazing defensive matchup for Butler, but it’s a huge pace-up spot.
Top Value: De’Anthony Melton at Milwaukee Bucks – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
With Desmond Bane, Tyus Jones, and Kyle Anderson in health and safety protocols, Melton is expected to step up and enjoy an increased role in the short term. He’s only logged 20 minutes or more in two of his last seven games but is projected for 32 minutes tonight.
In five games with at least 30 minutes played this season, Melton has averaged 15.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.6 triples, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 blocks. His salary is ridiculously low for a player who can score 30-40 fantasy points.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Indiana Pacers – $11,300 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
The King doesn’t need much of an introduction, but I’ll give him one anyway. He’s been on a roll recently and averaged 29.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.1 steals in seven January appearances.
He recently promised Laker Nation that he and the team would be better, and if his 25/7/7 line in Monday’s upset win over Utah is any indication of things to come, he’s likely to make good on his word.
Los Angeles is 22-22, and every win counts at this time of the year. LeBron has scored at least 25 points in 14 straight games, and I’m not banking on that streak being snapped tonight.
Top Value: Terence Davis vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,300 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Tyrese Haliburton entered health and safety protocols Sunday, and Davis drew the start in his place. In that one, Davis went for 17 points, six rebounds, five assists, and four steals across 37 minutes against the Rockets.
Hali is out again tonight, and Davis could be in for another start. He’s got a good Opponent Plus/Minus and gets a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel due to his puzzlingly low price tag.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
Milwaukee is 2-6 over its last eight games, and the team is fresh off a heartbreaking loss to the Hawks on Monday. Giannis should be especially motivated tonight against Ja Morant and the league’s most electric team.
Giannis’ stats this season are comparable to his MVP campaigns, so of course, he’ll be a top-ceiling option on nearly every slate where he’s available. Expect him to be at his best when two Eastern Conference powerhouses clash tonight.
Top Value: Brandon Clarke at Milwaukee Bucks – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Kyle Anderson will be out tonight due to health and safety protocols, and you know what that means? Yep, it’s Brandon Clarke time!
The Gonzaga product averaged 14.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.8 blocks in a recent four-game stint with Anderson out of action, and there’s no reason to think he can’t approach those numbers tonight.
The matchup between Milwaukee and Memphis has a favorable 229 over/under, and Clarke gets a good Opponent Plus/Minus.
Center
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert vs. Houston Rockets – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Nikola Jokic deserves to be the top choice here every time he plays, so I’ll diversify today with a pivot to Rudy Gobert, our model’s second-highest ceiling play.
In two games since returning from protocols, Gobert has averaged 18.5 points, 17.5 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks, and Houston allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
The Stifle Tower gets a massive Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus as well as a hefty 231 over/under between Jazz and Rockets.
Top Value: Dwight Howard vs. Indiana Pacers – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Howard has started each of the Lakers’ last two games and played at least 20 minutes in both contests. There’s a good chance he draws another start tonight, and our model projects him to play 21 minutes.
Howard won’t light the world on fire with huge performances, but he’s got a ceiling in the 40-point range and has posted at least 20 fantasy points in each of his two recent starts. If you can get 5-6x value out of a guy priced so low, you’ll be sitting pretty and able to squeeze in more high-priced studs.
