The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry at Utah Jazz – $10,300 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Chef Curry hasn’t been putting up gaudy stat lines with much regularity this season, but he’s still got the highest ceiling of any point guard on the slate. He’ll need to be at his best when Golden State travels to Utah, where the over/under is set at 220.5 and the Jazz are 3.5-point favorites.
Curry has averaged 25.0 points, 5.7 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 4.8 threes and 2.2 steals in six games where Golden State was the away underdog and he played. He totaled 28 points, nine assists, six boards and six triples in his lone trip to Salt Lake City this season, and there’s reason to believe he keeps up his strong play on the road tonight.
Top Value: De’Aaron Fox vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $7,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Miraculously, Fox’s lingering “ankle injury” was healed last night following the Kings’ shocking trade of Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield for Domantas Sabonis. Fox managed a 29/7/6 line with a steal in his first game back against the same Timberwolves team he’ll be facing tonight.
The matchup between Minnesota and Sacramento is a dream for DFS players, thanks to a 233.5 over/under. The game totaled 248 points when the teams met Tuesday. Fox is in the mid-$7K range, but our model projects him as one of the best values at point guard, and I have to say I agree.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine at Charlotte Hornets – $9,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
LaVine returned from a two-game absence Monday and dropped 32/6/8 against the Suns. He’ll look to keep the hot hand tonight at Charlotte, where he’ll get an excellent Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus.
LaVine is a good play on both sites, but he’s an incredible value on FanDuel at just $8,000. The Bulls and Hornets have a healthy 230 over/under tonight, second-highest on the slate.
Top Value: Kelly Oubre vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,600 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Oubre has averaged 15.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.8 stocks across his last four, and he’s in a prime spot to put up some major fantasy points tonight.
Oubre’s ceiling is huge, as he can erupt off the bench on any given night. He’s got three 35-point games to his credit on the season, and he posted a full line of 18/3/2/2/1 against Chicago in his only meeting with the Bulls. With Gordon Hayward out indefinitely, Oubre should continue to play big minutes.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Portland Trail Blazers – $10,800 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
The Lakers were absolutely embarrassed by Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks at home last night, so there should be plenty of motivation to get back on track in a very winnable matchup.
There’s a question if he’ll play on the second night of a back-to-back, but the Lakers are fighting for a playoff spot and need a victory. Portland’s lineup is severely depleted, and there’s every reason to believe that LeBron should dominate here.
Top Value: Justise Winslow vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
In the aftermath of Portland’s fire sale, Winslow drew his first start in a Blazers’ uniform Tuesday and posted 12 points, seven boards, three assists, two blocks and two steals in 33 minutes. There’s a chance Josh Hart is available tonight, but it seems pretty unlikely given that he was traded only yesterday. At Winslow’s low salary, our model loves him to generate huge value tonight.
Note: Winslow is eligible at SF on FanDuel and PF on DraftKings
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
OKC has been one of the most generous teams to opposing bigs this season, and Spicy P should stay red-hot tonight. Siakam has averaged 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.3 steals in the month of February as he continues his excellent 2021-22 campaign. He posted a strong 23/11/5 line in his first meeting with the Thunder.
Top Value: Louis King vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
King went for two points, one rebound, three assists and a block in 18 minutes on Tuesday, and there’s a chance he stays in the Kings’ rotation at least in the short-term.
Richaun Holmes will be out tonight, while Domantas Sabonis won’t be available to make his Kings’ debut yet. King won Summer League Finals MVP in 2021, and he’s shown plenty of upside when given the minutes. Over his career, King has averaged 17.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.7 steals, 1.0 blocks in three games with at least 20 minutes.
Center
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Portland Trail Blazers – $10,100 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
The Blazers starting frontcourt will likely be Jusuf Nurkic and Justise Winslow, and neither will be a matchup for Anthony Davis. The Brow was absolutely dominated by Giannis Antetokounmpo last night, and he’s got a great outlet to take out his frustrations on Portland.
Davis has averaged 27.5 points, 14.5 rebounds and 4.5 stocks over his last four games, and he posted three straight games of at least 28 points and 15 rebounds prior to Tuesday’s dud.
Top Value: P.J. Washington vs. Chicago Bulls – $4,900 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Washington’s name has been floated around in trade rumors recently, but as long as he’s not moved prior to tonight’s matchup with the Bulls, he should be in line for plenty of minutes.
Jalen McDaniels and Gordon Hayward are both out again, and Washington should soak up playing time off the bench. He posted 15 points, nine rebounds, two assists, one steal and a block in his last game out, so a performance even close to that would be a great return on his low, low salary.
