The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Luka gets top-ceiling honors on tonight’s slate in a fantastic matchup with the Thunder. He’s averaged 32.0 points, 11.5 assists, 9.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks across his last two games and triple-doubled in two of his last three.
Doncic has averaged 17.0 points, 11.0 assists, 10.0 rebounds, 2.0 steals, and 1.5 blocks in two meetings with OKC this season, and he’ll look to keep up the strong play thanks to a favorable game environment and big Pace Differential.
Top Value: Brandon Goodwin at Houston Rockets – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Darius Garland is out again tonight, which should open up additional minutes for Goodwin. Goodwin scored a career-high 21 points in 27 minutes Monday and started the second half over Dean Wade.
Wade has been lackluster in his recent starts, and Rajon Rondo is just a shell of himself these days. Expect Goodwin to get some substantial run tonight. He gets the benefits of a huge Pace Differential and strong Opponent Plus/Minus while being priced at the bare minimum salary on each site.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving at Sacramento Kings – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
The Nets play on the road tonight, so Kyrie Irving will be available for his third straight game. Sacramento/Brooklyn figures to be a fantastic game environment with a 232.5 over/under, a big Opponent Plus/Minus, and a strong Pace Differential.
Irving has averaged 29 points, six assists, five rebounds, three triples, and two steals over his last two contests, and he’s scored at least 24 points in each of his last six games. In a high-scoring affair with SacTown, expect Irving to pay off his ever-rising salary.
Top Value: Josh Green vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
Green is a sneaky play tonight and one who figures to have low ownership. Over the Mavs’ last two games, he’s totaled 23 points, six dimes, two boards, and a steal across 36 minutes. With Tim Hardaway Jr. on the shelf, Green should continue to see minutes in the low to mid-20’s. At his minimum salary, he doesn’t need huge production to pay off the value by 5x, 6x or even 7x. He gets a big Pace Differential against the Thunder tonight.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown vs. Charlotte Hornets – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Brown has been huge for Boston as of late, averaging 29.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.8 dimes and 3.5 triples across his last four contests. Tonight’s matchup with Charlotte offers him a chance to produce huge numbers yet again.
Boston gets an enormous Pace Differential and strong Opponent Plus/Minus tonight in a game with a respectable 223.5 over/under. Our model gives him a ceiling of over 50 fantasy points on both sites, and he’s a bit cheaper than his counterpart, Jayson Tatum. Brown should be a guy who gets plenty of exposure on tonight’s slate.
Top Value: Cedi Osman at Houston Rockets – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Darius Garland is out again, so Osman should slot in as the de facto point guard after doing so Monday. In Monday’s win over the Pels, Osman made his first start of the season and totaled seven points, two rebounds, and a career-best 12 dimes across 38 minutes.
This will be a massive pace-up spot for the Cavs, and Osman should have plenty of minutes in what should be a favorable game environment against the lowly Rockets defense.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Charlotte Hornets – $10,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Tatum has averaged 32.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 4.2 threes over his last six games and is in a great spot tonight. The matchup with Charlotte gives Tatum big advantages in Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus.
Charlotte has been especially vulnerable to opposing bigs this season, so Tatum should be expected to feast. He’s got a ceiling of over 62 fantasy points on both sites, though he’s $800 cheaper on FanDuel.
Top Value: Isaiah Jackson vs. Orlando Magic – $5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
I-Jax broke out Monday, as he posted 26 points, 10 boards, two swats, and a steal across 29 minutes in his first career start. Most impressively, he stayed out of foul trouble and didn’t commit a single turnover.
Goga Bitadze (foot) and Domantas Sabonis (protocols) are both out again tonight, and we should expect Jackson to remain the starting center in a game that affords him a strong Opponent Plus/Minus and decent Pace Differential against a Magic team that’s been burned by opposing bigs all season.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Utah Jazz – $12,600 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Rudy Gobert (calf) is out, and Hassan Whiteside (back) is questionable for Utah tonight, so Jokic is already in good shape against the depleted Jazz.
The reigning MVP has averaged 27.3 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 10.7 assists over his last 10 games while posting an incredible six triple-doubles in that span. He topped 50 fantasy points in each of those contests and surpassed 65 fantasy points four times. If you’re looking for some savings, Jokic is $1,200 cheaper on FanDuel.
Top Value: Montrezl Harrell at Philadelphia 76ers – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Thomas Bryant injured his ankle Tuesday and played just 16 mins before exiting. Bryant tore his ACL last season and just recently returned to Washington, so the Wizards are sure to be cautious with him moving forward.
I wouldn’t expect Bryant to be available tonight on the second of a back-to-back set, which leaves more minutes for Montrezl Harrell. Harrell logged 26 minutes Tuesday and went for 20 points and five boards. The minutes were his most in a month, and a half and the points were his most in two months. Daniel Gafford could offer some value here, but after a DNP-CD and six minutes in his last two, he’s a far riskier option than Harrell.
