We’ve got another slate of games overshadowed by health and safety protocols, but in the world of DFS, that leaves us with some quality options to consider for lineup building. While looking over our model and setting lineups of my own, I noticed that there are quite a few dramatic pricing discrepancies on tonight’s slate, and I’ll make sure to highlight them in the writeups below.
The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Hali has been phenomenal with De’Aaron Fox out of the lineup, and with Fox out tonight, Haliburton is our ceiling play for this six-game slate.
Over his last three, the second-year man has averaged 24.0 points, 10.7 dimes, 4.7 rebounds, 2.7 threes, and 1.7 steals across 38.7 minutes while providing three straight double-doubles. It’s a pace-down spot against the Clippers but a positive Opponent Plus/Minus and a 219.5 over/under.
Top Value: Delon Wright vs. Orlando Magic – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Wright has been largely out of Atlanta’s rotation since joining the team, but he’ll get a chance to change that tonight. Trae Young and Lou Williams will miss tonight’s matchup with the Magic after landing in the health and safety protocols, and Wright should see a significant bump in playing time.
In three games with at least 20 minutes, Wright has averaged 2.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 2.7 stocks. Those numbers won’t knock your socks off, but our model projects him for a season-high 32 minutes tonight. Wright gets a positive Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential and is quite affordable on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Jrue Holiday vs. Houston Rockets – $9,400 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Holiday has been excellent over his last five games, though he’s turned it on significantly in the last three. In that span, Holiday has averaged 28.7 points, 9.0 assists, 3.0 rebounds, and 2.0 steals, including a 40-point game against the Pelicans.
Holiday sat Saturday for rest and hasn’t played in nearly a week. He should be well-rested for a clash with Houston’s barely-there defense in a game featuring the highest over/under on the slate at 224.5.
Top Value: Buddy Hield vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $6,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Tyrese Haliburton isn’t the only player who’s benefited from De’Aaron Fox’s absence. Over the last two games, Buddy Hield has entered the Kings starting lineup and averaged 23.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.5 steals, and 6.5 triples over 40.0 minutes in that span.
Due to his ability to score quickly when he heats up, Hield has a ceiling of at least 47 points on both sites. As is the case with many players on the slate, Hield’s price is more favorable on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George at Sacramento Kings – $10,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
After an extended absence due to an elbow injury, George returned to post a 25/6/6 line over 30 minutes in Monday’s blowout loss to the Spurs. The blowout nature of the contest likely limited his minutes, and our model projects him to play 35 tonight.
On the season, PG13 is averaging 25.0 points, 7.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 2.7 triples and 1.9 swipes. He’ll get a substantial boost in Pace Differential tonight against Sacramento, and he’s priced way down on FanDuel with a 98% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Cedi Osman at Boston Celtics – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Osman went 23/5/4 in 27 minutes off the bench Saturday against Milwaukee, and he should be in line for similar playing time tonight. With Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley both out, our model projects Osman for 29 minutes.
Osman is a guy who can score in bunches, and he’s poured in at least 20 points four times this season. He’s in a small pace-down spot with a positive Opponent Plus/Minus. Due to his inconsistent production, he’s recommended more for tournaments than cash games.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $11,100 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are both out tonight, and Tatum should have no problem having his way with Cleveland’s shorthanded frontcourt.
Over his last 10 games, Tatum has averaged 29.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.7 dimes, 3.0 triples, and 1.6 stocks. He gets a pace-up spot and should enjoy a positive defensive matchup with the abovementioned players sidelined. He’s priced way up on DraftKings, where he should be avoided. On FanDuel, however, he’s a fine play with a 96% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Jordan Nwora vs. Houston Rockets – $4,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
The Nigerian forward has been huge for Milwaukee over his last two games, filling in for Giannis Antetokounmpo in the starting lineup. In that span, he’s averaged 21.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 3.5 triples, 2.0 assists, and 1.5 stocks across 42 minutes while posting two straight double-doubles.
Nwora is one of many players with advantageous pricing on DraftKings, and he gets a 98% Bargain Rating on that site. Khris Middleton will return tonight, but with Giannis and Bobby Portis still out, expect another solid showing from Nwora.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Orlando Magic – $12,600 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
With Chicago/Toronto postponed, the Joker clearly stands alone atop the pool of centers on tonight’s slate. He gets one of the most favorable matchups for opposing centers and sports a massive Opponent Plus/Minus and a strong Pace Differential.
Jokic has been superhuman recently, averaging a triple-double over his last seven games. In that span, he’s posted 26.9 points, 13.1 rebounds, 10.1 dimes, and 2.5 stocks. His price is astronomical, but you get what you pay for with this guy.
Top Value: DeMarcus Cousins vs. Houston – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
It’s time to boogie on tonight’s slate! Cousins had a huge game Saturday, posting 12 points, 12 boards, and six stocks in 27 minutes. With both of Bobby Portis and Giannis Antetokounmpo out again tonight, Cousins is in line for a another start in a game with the night’s highest over/under at 224.5 against his former team. He’s got a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
