The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Orlando Magic – $10,700 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Young was my featured stud Monday, and he remains the top ceiling option at PG on tonight’s slate. Young’s recent production and fantastic matchup set him up for plenty of success on a busy Wednesday.
Young has scored at least 30 points in seven of his last 10 games, and in that span, he’s averaged 30.9 points, 9.9 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 3.5 triples, and 1.1 steals while posting seven double-doubles.
Orlando is 29th in defensive rating and has surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing players this season. Young’s price has crept into five figures, but he’s worth the inflated salary.
Top Value: Malcolm Brogdon at Milwaukee Bucks – $7,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Brogdon is one of the rare plays included in the value section whose salary eclipses $6,000, but our model loves him tonight, especially at his discounted price. Our model gives him a ceiling of at least 56 fantasy points on both sites.
Brogdon faces his former team tonight, where our model projects him to have a strong Projected Plus/Minus and at least 5.5 Points/Salary on both sites. Milwaukee ranks ninth in pace compared to 23rd in pace for Indiana, so Brogdon gets a boost in Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential as well.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Charlotte Hornets – $10,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Murray remains a near-lock to find his name written in this column whenever he’s playing, and that’s no different tonight. After a mini-slump, he broke out to post his first triple-double in three weeks with a 10/12/10 line against the Pelicans on Sunday.
I’ve mentioned Charlotte as a favorable DFS opponent numerous times over the last few weeks, but it bears repeating. The Hornets have been a top-five fantasy matchup for opposing players this season, rank 30th in defensive rating and rank third in pace. Murray will look to keep his strong play going in a highly favorable game environment that boasts a 228.5 over/under, the highest on the slate.
Top Value: Grayson Allen vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Donte DiVincenzo was expected to make his season debut tonight before landing in the health and safety protocols, so Allen’s starting gig is secure for at least one more game. DiVincenzo joins Giannis Antetokounmpo in protocols, leaving the Bucks rather shorthanded.
Allen is in the midst of a breakout campaign, and he should be leaned on for his offense tonight with Giannis out of action. One of Allen’s three 20-point games came on Nov. 12 against Boston, where he went for 21 points without Giannis in the lineup. The matchup with Indiana is a pace-down spot, but he gets the benefit of a positive Opponent Plus/Minus.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram at Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,200 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
After a slow start to the season, Ingram has come alive this month. He’s averaged 27.0 points, 6.3 dimes, 5.5 rebounds, 2.0 threes, and 1.3 steals in six December games, including one double-double and a 40-point eruption. He heads into tonight’s matchup against the Thunder with plenty of momentum.
OKC has surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing SFs this season, which is a huge boon to Ingram’s already-high ceiling. The matchup with the Thunder offers positives in Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential, and BI is still reasonably priced among the upper-tier plays.
Top Value: Isaac Okoro vs. Houston – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Okoro has picked up his scoring as of late, as his three highest-scoring affairs have come in his last three games. In that span, he’s averaged 18.0 points, 4.0 boards, 2.0 dimes, 2.3 triples, and 1.0 combined blocks/steals.
Houston has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing players this season, and the Rockets rank first in the NBA in pace. Tonight’s matchup has a healthy 221.5 over/under, and Okoro draws a positive Opponent Plus/Minus and huge Pace Differential.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Dallas Mavericks – $11,100 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
The King has been on fire over the last week, posting ridiculous averages of 27.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.4 blocks across his last five games. In that span, he’s notched two triple-doubles and scored at least 59 points on DraftKings and FanDuel in three straight.
James has been getting it done on both ends of the court, as he’s racked up seven blocks across his last three games. Anthony Davis has missed two straight due to a knee issue and is questionable again tonight. James’ ceiling goes even higher if AD is sidelined for a third straight contest.
Top Value: P.J. Tucker at Philadelphia 76ers – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Tucker has been on a surprising roll recently, and we’ve got to take notice when setting DFS lineups. On Monday, he posted a season-high 23 points at Cleveland and came just one shy of his career-high in the scoring department.
Over his last three, the veteran has averaged 15.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 3.0 triples, and 1.7 combined blocks/steals. He’s got 40 fantasy-point upside and is priced under $6K. He’d be that much more appealing if Joel Embiid (ribs) sits out a second straight game.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $12,200 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Maybe the Joker’s incredible streak of play comes to an end tonight, but until he slows down, he’s an automatic feature in this spot of the DFS breakdown.
Over his last five games, the reigning MVP has averaged an incredible stat line of 28.2 points, 14.4 rebounds, 10.6 assists, and 1.8 steals. He was ejected with six minutes to play against Washington on Monday but still went for 28/19/9 with four combined blocks/steals.
Top Value: Alperen Sengun at Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Is the talented rookie finally going to get consistent minutes? We can only hope so, as Sengun has been tremendous when given the opportunity. He’s averaged 24.0 minutes across his last two games and turned that increased playing time into 13.0 points, 6.0 boards, 5.0 assists, 2.5 blocks, and 1.0 steals.
Tonight’s matchup with the Cavs sports a 221.5 over/under, one of the highest on the slate. To make things even more interesting, Christian Wood is questionable with knee tendinitis.
Bonus: Jusuf Nurkic vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $7,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Nurk doesn’t stand out on DraftKings, but his price jumps off the screen on FanDuel, where he’s highly undervalued at just $5,900. He’s posted two double-doubles and dished at least five assists in two of his last three games. The matchup with Memphis is a huge pace-up spot.
