The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $10,700 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
The Grizzlies point guard has fizzled out in the last couple of games, but the Grizzlies have remained at a top-five pace since the start of February, which should open up a world of possibilities for Morant. We have him set for a Usage Rate north of 30% and a ceiling near 70 fantasy points.
Top Value: Goran Dragic vs. Charlotte Hornets – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Dragic has played a decently-large role since joining the Nets, seeing steady minutes off the bench. In recent games, he’s seen his playing time increase to nearly 28 minutes against Miami and over 22 against Boston. With that, our model anticipates Dragic being a solid 5X player on both sites.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving vs. Charlotte Hornets – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
The Nets are in Charlotte, which means Irving will be eligible to play in this one. It also means Brooklyn will be in a fantastic pace-up spot against the run-and-gun Hornets. Irving has only played two games in those past two weeks, but one of them saw him inch towards 60 fantasy points. Our model thinks he can flirt with that total again.
Top Value: Luke Kennard vs. Golden State Warriors – $4,000 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Kennard admittedly hasn’t lived up to his expectations in the last four games, but prior to that, the shooting guard was lethal regardless of playing time. He’s still seeing a steady dose of minutes with 20+ in seven straight, and our model thinks he could be in for a good night against a shorthanded Warriors team, projecting him as a 5-6X play.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Charlotte Hornets – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
As noted above with Irving, this is a pace-up spot for the Nets, leading to the highest total of the night by far. The implied total here is 240.5, and the next-highest scoring game is set to be Pelicans-Grizzlies at 231.5. Our model sets Durant’s ceiling right around 65 fantasy points, which is hard to find on this slate.
Top Value: Cody Martin vs. Brooklyn Nets – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Martin should be one of the top plays on the slate no matter where you can fit him in. He’s the best dollar-for-dollar small forward on DraftKings while he ranks second in projected Pts/Sal on FanDuel at shooting guard. Regardless of position, he’s yet another player who should benefit from this high-scoring game, seeing as he’s played a spicy 30+ minutes in back-to-back games.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
I noted above that a 65-point night may be hard to find on this slate, but the one man who should be able to deliver is Antetokounmpo, who has a projected ceiling here of nearly 80 fantasy points. Milwaukee will be in Oklahoma City, which has been the sixth-worst defense in the NBA over the last two weeks. The Bucks’ efficient offense should take full advantage.
Top Value: Jordan Nwora vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,100 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Nwora, like Antetokounmpo, should feast here against a poor Thunder defense. Without Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen in the lineup, Nwora has been thrust into action and repaid the Bucks with a solid 12-point, five-rebound day against the Suns on Sunday. You have the added bonus of garbage time minutes here, too, if the Bucks pull away.
Center
Top Ceiling: Jonas Valanciunas vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $7,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
In what’s projected to be the second-most friendly game of the night for DFS purposes, Valanciunas is a high-upside play. Our model has him set for 30 minutes and better than 22% usage, which could equate to a 50-burger. Memphis grades out as the No. 14 defense in basketball over the last week and shouldn’t be feared here.
Top Value: Nic Claxton vs. Charlotte Hornets – $3,200 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
I really don’t know if it gets any better on this slate than Claxton, a bargain center going up against one of the worst frontcourts in the NBA. The minutes have been inconsistent at times for the youngster, but with LaMarcus Aldridge out for this one, he should see a good amount of playing time. Assuming he sees the floor, he should easily hit value, and our model has him projected as a solid 6X option.
