The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Detroit Pistons – $12,200 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
The only thing that can stop Doncic in this spot is a blowout. The Mavs point guard has gone over 70 fantasy points in three of his last four, outperforming his projection in four of his last five. It’s because of this that his ceiling — which rests above 70 fantasy points — is one worth noting. His +0.77 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +1.7 on FanDuel make him a solid play.
Top Value: Dennis Smith, Jr. vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $3,100 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
The Pelicans defense has come crashing back down to Earth, and that should open things up for Dennis Smith, Jr. on Tuesday. His price is difficult to deal with on FanDuel, but over on DraftKings, he has the highest projected value at over 7X. Smith saw 20 minutes against the Bucks, making the most of them with 21 fantasy points, and with so many players out (and traded away, as we’ll get to) for Portland, the opportunity should be there.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Houston Rockets – $9,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Booker is fresh off a 50+ fantasy-point performance against a struggling Bulls defense and will draw one of the worst defenses in the league over the last two weeks in the Houston Rockets. We project the shooting guard will have a ceiling right around 60 fantasy points on this slate with a hefty usage projection of over 30%.
Top Value: Dorian Finney-Smith vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Like Doncic, Finney-Smith will also have a huge ceiling against one of the league’s worst defenses. He’s particularly intriguing at shooting guard on FanDuel, considering he is only going to run you $4,200 and enters with back-to-back games of 22 fantasy points or more. He’s seen around 40 minutes on average over his last four games and should be out there long enough to make it more than worth your while.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
James’ return couldn’t have gone any better against the Knicks. He garnered just 4.7% ownership on DraftKings and went over 59 fantasy points on both sites. He enters a matchup with Milwaukee, who has one of the worst restricted area defenses over the last two weeks, with a world of potential. We project him for a ceiling well over 60 fantasy points.
Top Value: DeAndre Bembry vs. Boston Celtics – $3,900 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
Bembry continues to see big minutes without Kevin Durant, and with James Harden and Kyrie Irving also out of this one, there should be plenty of opportunity for the veteran forward. Bembry has been able to hit salary in his last two games and should be capable of doing that again at the very least here with a strong Usage projection over 16%.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokoumpo vs. Chicago Bulls – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Antetokounmpo actually has the third-highest ceiling on this slate with so much competition. We still have him set at a 15% chance of hitting 75 fantasy points or more on both sites, entering a matchup with a damaged Lakers defense with a strong Usage projection over 30%.
Top Value: Justise Winslow vs. Orlando Magic – $3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
The Trail Blazers are in firesale mode, and that opens the door for their brand-new forward to get some big minutes against a soft Magic defense on Tuesday. Winslow is best used over on DraftKings, where he’s power forward-eligible and will run you the minimum. We have him projected for well over 10X salary, and his ceiling is even tastier.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. New York Knicks – $12,600 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
To no one’s surprise, Jokic is the highest-upside center on Tuesday’s slate. He does draw a normally-difficult matchup against the Knicks frontcourt, but on the second night of a back-to-back, it’s possible New York’s defense is a bit more relenting. Jokic carries a ridiculous ceiling of around 80 points in this one, topping all players.
Top Value: Al Horford vs. Brooklyn Nets – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Defense has been optional for the Nets lately, who have posted a defensive rating in the bottom five of the league over the last two weeks. That will make for a friendly matchup here for Horford, who could be the best dollar-for-dollar center on the board. We have set him as a 6X player on FanDuel after his 13-point, 11-rebound, five-assist performance against the Magic last time out.
