The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Phoenix Suns – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
I have a few FanDuel-tailored picks based on positional eligibility, so I will go with a DraftKings special here. Harden is a very solid option in the wake of the Stephen Curry injury, holding a ceiling well over 60 points according to our projections. He will have some defensive attention taken off him with Kyrie Irving on the floor, but with Kevin Durant and a couple of backcourt mates still out, his usage should not be in question.
Top Value: Gary Payton II vs. San Antonio Spurs – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
With Stephen Curry out, Gary Payton II will step into a larger role here against a wounded Spurs defense. Given 23 minutes last time out, he was able to hit 5X, so if he sees upwards of 30 here, his value will be through the roof. We have him projected for nearly 6X if he plays 20 minutes, meaning this could be the shoo-in value call of the night after his projection updates.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Golden State Warriors – $10,900 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
He may only be shooting-guard-eligible on FanDuel, but he deserves some recognition on this slate. Murray carries a ceiling of over 65 points into this matchup on both sites and will take aim at a Warriors defense that has floundered just a little bit over the last week. He has exceeded his projections in the last six games, so the fact that our model loves him so much is a good sign.
Top Value: Moses Moody vs. San Antonio Spurs – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
I don’t want to sound repetitive here, but with Curry, Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson out for the Warriors, we’re going to see some guys take on huge minutes increases. Moody will surely be one after his 11-point outing in 24 minutes last game against Houston. He went for over 6X in that game on DraftKings and remains minimum salary.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Orlando Magic – $9,100 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
He’s a power forward on DraftKings and a small forward on FanDuel, but no matter where you’re playing DFS on Tuesday, you’re going to want to find a way to get DeRozan in some lineups. His ceiling exceeds 60 fantasy points according to our projections, and he’s out-performed what our model has expected in six straight games. He should be able to fill up the stat sheet in bunches and doesn’t project as too chalky of a play here.
Top Value: Corey Kispert vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $3,300 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
The former Gonzaga sharpshooter is being asked to take on some of Bradley Beal’s role with the star guard out due to an injury, seeing an 18.3% Usage Rate last time out. He’ll hit value and then some on this slate according to our model, entering with a +7.04 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Washington Wizards – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Antetokounmpo’s ceiling is up near 75 fantasy points against a Wizards team that has ranked 21st in defensive efficiency over the last week of play. George Hill will miss this one for Milwaukee, which should open up even more of a role for Antetokounmpo at the point, and with the state of this Washington defense, it should be easy pickings.
Top Value: Jaxson Hayes vs. Detroit Pistons – $3,700 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
Hayes is a tremendous value option upfront, though his positional eligibility will vary. He’s going against a weakened Pistons frontcourt and enters with a +0.78 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where you can slot him in as a power forward. Fresh off a 35-fantasy point night, our model is comfortable projecting him as a near-6X play.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $12,500 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
The Nuggets big man is questionable for this one due to a toe injury, but in the event he plays, he will be the highest upside play on the board at center. He will face a Timberwolves defense that is 19th in defensive rating over the last week of play and has a ceiling near 75 on DraftKings and one very near that number on FanDuel. Considering he just went for 60 fantasy points in 28 minutes against Milwaukee last time out, with a solid minutes projection, he should be well within the 75-point range.
Top Value: Thomas Bryant vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
The matchup could be better, but Bryant has turned in two games of 6X production in his last three and has been very unpopular judging by his ownership. There are better value options on FanDuel, but getting a 6X projection on DraftKings at this price is hard to pass up.
