The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Russell Westbrook vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,700 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
The Russell Westbrook revenge tour continues. After finishing a two-game set with the Houston Rockets on Tuesday, Westbrook will face another one of his former teams, the Thunder, for the second time this season.
Westbrook saw a Usage Rate over 29% again on Tuesday with so many Lakers out or playing through injury, and we project him to flirt with that number once again as the point guard with the highest upside on the slate.
Top Value: Tyrese Maxey vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Tobias Harris and Danny Green are both sidelined, which has led to some more playing time for the Sixers’ starting point guard. Maxey saw 37 minutes against Chicago, though he disappointed with a third straight game in the low 20s of fantasy scoring.
Now with a lower price tag, our model thinks Maxey can provide the most bang for your buck at the point guard position in a great matchup with Detroit and flirt with 7X salary.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Mitchell is questionable for this game after rolling his ankle, but he should play here. If he does, he will be in for a treat against a Hawks defense that has struggled mightily and comes in on the second night of a back-to-back. We project Mitchell to have the highest ceiling of any shooting guard over on DraftKings, and his Projected Plus/Minus of +8.09 makes him a solid play on FanDuel as well.
Top Value: Furkan Korkmaz vs. Detroit Pistons – $4,700 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
We touched on the injuries for Philly benefiting Tyrese Maxey at point guard, but they should more directly help Korkmaz, who has started the last two games for the Sixers and averaged over 25 minutes. Korkmaz has responded with back-to-back nights of at least 5X salary and we have him projected for over 6X on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’ll be the stronger play on the latter, where he has a +11.19 Projected Plus/Minus.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. Boston Celtics – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
If you want to find another bad defense to target, look no further than the Boston Celtics. They’ve been lacking in the frontcourt with some poor rebounding numbers and have been rotating in a bunch of different names in the post. On the whole, they rank 18th in defensive efficiency.
We project Butler to have the highest ceiling of any small forward on FanDuel at over 62 points while he’s second to only LeBron James on DraftKings.
Top Value: Jae’Sean Tate vs. Phoenix Suns – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Tate has been a popular value play all season long, and even at this price he should still be worth your money. Tate will match up with the Suns here, who rank 19th in defensive efficiency in the early going this season, and he’s carrying an Opponent Plus/Minus of over +1.0 into this matchup on both sites. Tate is coming off roughly a 35-fantasy point night and should be relatively popular here, but we still project him out to be one of the best value plays at small forward.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
James is listed as questionable here, but that’s nothing new — he’s been on the injury report all season. Should he suit up here, James could return as high as 6X on FanDuel should he hit our projected ceiling for him. With a Usage Projection over 26% and massive minutes expected, that’s easy to see happening against a very bad defense.
Editor’s note: James has been ruled out.
Top Value:
Top Value: Robert Williams vs. Miami Heat – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Miami has allowed the sixth-worst field goal percentage inside 10 feet so far this season, and that’s where Williams should come in. The big man has been getting a hefty amount of run with the Celtics trying to keep Al Horford healthy and we project Williams to have a big game in this matchup with a projection around 6X salary.
Williams will only be usable at power forward at FanDuel, where he has a +10.7 Projected Plus/Minus.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Detroit Pistons – $10,500 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
If you want to find the player who will likely top the slate, look no further than Embiid. The Sixers are still without Tobias Harris and Danny Green, opening the door for massive usage here. Our model loves Embiid with a Usage Projection of nearly 32%.
Top Value: Derrick Favors vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $3,300 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Favors is dirt cheap and on such a short slate should warrant your consideration. We projected him to see around 20 minutes for a Thunder team who’s been hesitant to give rookie Jeremiah Robinson-Earl a heavy workload early in his career. The Lakers have also struggled on the defensive end so far this season, making them a great team to target, and Favors carries an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4 or greater on both sites.
