The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant vs. Detroit Pistons – $9,200 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Morant will take aim at a struggling and depleted Detroit defense as the lead man for another short-staffed team, the Grizzlies. Kyle Anderson, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks may all miss this game, opening the door for some heavy usage. Morant tops the slate in projected ceiling on FanDuel and is a close second to Chris Paul on DraftKings.
Top Value: Killian Hayes vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Hayes appears to have returned to consistent minutes in the Pistons’ rotation, seeing at least 23 in two straight. He did well to out-perform his projections against the Hornets last time out, going for over 20 fantasy points, and the young guard should be able to at least hit value here against a Grizzlies defense that has come back to Earth ever so slightly.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
The price has finally caught up to Booker on FanDuel, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a high-upside play on Thursday’s short slate. The Suns sharpshooter carries a projected ceiling of nearly 60 points into this matchup and comes in with some good form after out-performing projections in five of the last eight.
Top Value: Gary Payton II vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
You can’t really go wrong playing a Warriors guard on Thursday, but our model gives Payton the slight edge over Jordan Poole against a soft Pelicans defense. With Stephen Curry likely out, Payton should receive plenty of run, and he’s certainly been making the most of his minutes lately by exceeding his projected output in seven of the last eight.
Editor’s note: Poole’s projections has since changed ahead of Payton’s after this piece was submitted.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram vs. Golden State Warriors – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
The Warriors will likely be without Stephen Curry here, and when he’s been off the floor, the Warriors are roughly five points worse per 100 possessions on defense this year. Ingram should command plenty of the ball and carries a ceiling well over 50 points into this one.
Top Value: Alec Burks vs. Boston Celtics – $5,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Burks snapped a long streak of disappointing fantasy performances with a couple of games which saw him get to or around 5X value in the last three. He faces a tough Celtics defense, but our model has him as the top value at the position with a projection around 5X. His teammate, R.J. Barrett, is right behind him.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. New York Knicks – $10,200 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Tatum has the highest overall ceiling on Thursday’s short slate, matching up with the defensively inadequate Julius Randle on the road at MSG. With a +1.22 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel and +0.48 on DraftKings, he should be a strong and chalky play, and with him comes a ceiling over 60 fantasy points.
Top Value: Taj Gibson vs. Boston Celtics – $3,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
This one is an incredibly niche call, given it’s inspired by one statistic and deals with just one site. The Celtics rank in the bottom eight of the league in field goal percentage allowed in the restricted area and in the paint, which could open the door for an unreasonably high number of points for Gibson. Our model likes him to get to 6X on DraftKings, and with at least 23 minutes in his last four games, he should be an adequate provider of value on that site.
Center
Top Ceiling: Jonas Valanciunas vs. Golden State Warriors – $8,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Valanciunas has a beefy +7.34 Projected Plus over on FanDuel and is the clear-cut high upside play at center on both sites. The big man has gone for 25 points in back-to-back games and is coming off a 35-minute stint against Phoenix. Golden State hasn’t been bested in the rebounding department by many teams, but the Grizzlies are one of them. Valanciunas could go to work on the glass.
Top Value: Brandon Clarke vs. Detroit Pistons – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Clarke gets to go up against the third-worst rebounding team in basketball on Thursday and the 23rd-ranked defense. We have him projected for 24 minutes, which seems to be in line with what he’s been seeing recently — logging at least 22 in three straight. He’s certainly delivered in those games with an average over 30 fantasy points, and that’s driving him to a projection over 6X on this slate.
