The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Chris Paul vs. Washington Wizards – $9,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Paul isn’t normally the name you think of when you are looking for a high-ceiling point guard, but such is life on a short slate. CP3 has a ceiling of around 55 points on DraftKings according to our model and is the clear-cut high-upside play on both sites. Paul is a better play on FanDuel with a 96% Bargain Rating and +0.41 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Top Value: Derrick Rose vs. Houston Rockets – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
The Knicks will be playing in a pace-up game against the Rockets, who rank first in pace and 25th in defense. Not only is this a great matchup against a defense that may be even weaker on the second night of a back-to-back, but the Knicks are also dealing with several COVID-related absences, which will open the door for massive minutes here. Rose has logged 33 or more in three straight and should see more than enough volume to hit 5X, as we project.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Bradley Beal vs. Phoenix Suns – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Beal has cleared the 40 fantasy-point barrier in two straight and coming off a massive 35.2% Usage Rate last time out against Sacramento; our model loves him against Phoenix. If all goes well, Beal could flirt with 50-60 fantasy points on both sites. Like Paul, he’s a great option on FanDuel with a +6.72 Projected Plus/Minus and less exciting for the $9K on DraftKings.
Top Value: Alec Burks vs. Houston Rockets – $7,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
You’re obviously much better off playing Burks on FanDuel, considering he’s hardly a value option on DraftKings. With that said, the Knicks are without R.J. Barrett, Quentin Grimes, Obi Toppin, and now Kevin Knox. There simply aren’t any wings remaining, and Burks should see around the same playing time — an average of 37 minutes — which he’s seen in his last two contests.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $12,300 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
With the Nets decimated by a COVID-19 outbreak, Durant has carried essentially the entire load for Brooklyn. He’s taken 30 shots per game — including nine threes on average — over the last two. He saw over 48 minutes last time out in an overtime win thanks to the Nets being down to eight players in the rotation. They’ll be hurting once again on Thursday, and our model projects Durant to have upside in the mid-70s.
Top Value: Kessler Edwards vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $4,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
If you were wondering earlier why so many great players are underpriced on FanDuel, it’s because they’ve wised up to guys like Edwards who are going to be seeing an insane amount of playing time in wake of COVID cases. Edwards — a second-round pick out of Pepperdine — logged 43 minutes against Toronto and delivered with more than 36 fantasy points.
Of course, that would get you nine times his present salary on DraftKings. We project him to soar over 6X at this pricetag with ease.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Detroit Pistons – $10,500 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
The Pistons are the very worst rebounding team in the NBA and a soft group inside, setting the stage for a big Sabonis night. According to our projections, he should have the highest ceiling at power forward after Kevin Durant with a +0.38 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Top Value: Alperen Sengun – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
As we established earlier, this game should involve plenty of possessions given the Rockets’ pace and absolutely no defense. Sengun has been one of the main reasons this offense has looked so good of late, out-performing his projection in seven of the last eight games. We have him set for around 6X here, so there’s a ton of potential — particularly against a struggling Knicks defense.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Brooklyn Nets – $11,400 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Embiid will be facing an inexperienced Nets frontcourt which is down LaMarcus Aldridge, Paul Millsap, and James Johnson. He should be able to dominate on the offensive end and on the glass, with Blake Griffin seeing plenty of minutes, which is why we have him projected as our highest-upside center. Embiid is expected to surpass 68 fantasy points on both sites with 15% probability.
Top Value: Myles Turner vs. Detroit Pistons – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Turner is a middling value play with a 5X projection on DraftKings according to our model, but with fewer players available to choose from on FanDuel and a cheaper price, Turner is the top value play on that site. We touched on the Pistons’ issues rebounding, and Turner should be in a great spot to capitalize. He’s out-performed our projections on FanDuel in six of the last seven and 10 of the last 12.
