The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Toronto Raptors – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Based on the injury news among the other studs on the slate, Stephen Curry might be the best pay-up option on this slate by default. After sitting out last game due to rest, Curry and the rest of the main Warriors starters are ready to go in this home matchup against the Toronto Raptors. The Warriors are 8-point favorites in the highest over/under on the slate.
The MVP front-runner is starting to separate from the rest of the pack with how well he has been playing lately. Despite the high price tag, Curry has been worth every penny. Over the last six games, Curry is averaging video game numbers with 36 points per game while making NINE 3-pointers in four of those six games. During that time, Curry has averaged 61.5 DraftKings points per game. The Raptors are allowing a 3-point percentage of 35.9% this season which is tied for the sixth-highest mark in the league. Don’t be surprised if we get another Curry explosion game in the Chase Center.
Top Value: Monte Morris at Phoenix Suns – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
The point guard with the best value on the slate tonight has to be Monte Morris. The price tag has come up a little bit, but keep in mind this is a four-game slate, so value will be difficult to find. The biggest thing for Morris is the playing time that he has gotten this season with the absence of Jamal Murray. He is averaging a career-high 29.8 minutes per game.
Not only is he getting a bump in minutes, but his production has spiked as well. Morris is averaging a career-high in points with 11 per game, assists with 4.2 per game, and rebounds with 2.8 per game. He has double-digit field goal attempts in every game besides two this season. With the added injury of Michael Porter Jr. and potentially Nikola Jokic tonight, Morris could be asked to do even more in this difficult matchup against the Suns who have the third-best Defensive Rating.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. New York Knicks – $8,700 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Shooting guard for both sites tonight is a little weak, but Zach LaVine stands out as the clear-cut option at the top. LaVine has been sensational this season. He is averaging 26.8 points per game which is the fourth highest in the league. He leads the Bulls in usage rate and points despite his backcourt teammate DeMar DeRozan right behind him in both categories.
This duo has been amazing at scoring the basketball this year. They are both better plays on FanDuel tonight. LaVine has a 94% Bargain Rating and has a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 11 games this season. He has ONE game scoring less than 22 points, which was a blowout win over the Detroit Pistons early in the season. He is very scoring dependent, but when you shoot as much as he does, he will pay off his salary. LaVine has attempted an average of 23.3 field goal attempts per game in his last four games. During that time, he has also averaged 11.8 3-pointers attempts per game.
Top Value: Alec Burks vs Chicago Bulls – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Alec Burks and the New York Knicks’ second unit are a big reason why the Knicks are staying afloat in the Eastern Conference. His minutes have really ramped up over the last five games. During that time Burks is averaging 25.6 minutes per game. He also has attempted at least six 3-pointers in each of those games while shooting 50% from 3-point range.
In their victory over the Houston Rockets yesterday, Burks had the most DraftKings points of everyone on the Knicks. He finished with 20 points, five rebounds, three assists, and five steals. He made six of his seven 3-pointers scoring 43.75 DraftKings points which is a season-high. Burks is a little more favorably priced on FanDuel and also has had a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games. He will be needed off the bench again tonight in this Eastern Conference clash.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Detroit Pistons – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Small forward is like a ghost town on this short slate. LeBron James leads the way with the highest ceiling at the position tonight. However, he is questionable to even play this game. Make sure to monitor his status in our news dashboard. If he does end up playing, this is a great spot against the 4-11 Detroit Pistons on the road.
James is coming back from injury, but in his first game back, he was very disappointing. He was efficient from the field, where he shot 10-16 for 23 points. However, he only shot one free throw and was pedestrian with his peripherals. He only had six rebounds and two assists while only scoring 37.5 DraftKings points. That won’t get it done at this price. The Pistons rank 22nd in Defensive Rating while allowing 107.4 points per game. This is a great spot; just make sure James is healthy.
Top Value: Derrick Jones Jr. vs. New York Knicks – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
A value player that has ramped up his playing time over the past couple of games is Chicago Bulls forward Derrick Jones Jr. He provides dual eligibility at the forward position, which is always valuable, especially on a short slate. Jones Jr. has had 20 or more DraftKings points in three out of his last four games. Nearly all of his field-goal attempts come from dunks as well.
If you are building a lineup that is stars and scrubs, Jones Jr. is definitely in play. I would keep him to a tournament-only play due to his volatility. The Knicks rank 17th in Defensive Rating and 23rd in Pace this season so the matchup isn’t all that appealing. However, at this price tag across the industry, Jones Jr. can definitely pay off at a very weak position.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Detroit Pistons – $10,600 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
The second big-time Los Angeles Lakers player I am writing up is Anthony Davis. He is probable to play tonight and might even play without the aforementioned LeBron James. I would much rather prefer if James sat this game out. Davis is averaging 24.6 points per game and 10.9 rebounds per game without James this season. Regardless though, he is still a great play.
The Pistons have the worst Rebounding Percentage this season. They are extremely undersized, especially now that Kelly Olynyk is also out due to injury. They have no one that can match up with Davis tonight. This is a great bounce-back spot for him, especially since he has been a bit underwhelming as of late. I would prioritize the other spend-up options over Davis, but if James is out tonight, Davis immediately jumps to one of the best plays on the slate.
Top Value: Jeff Green at Phoenix Suns – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
The second Denver Nuggets value player that I am targeting tonight is Jeff Green. He will benefit if Nikola Jokic is out again tonight but should get fed plenty of minutes to pay off this price tag regardless. The Nuggets have lost three straight games and are 7.5-point underdogs tonight. There is blowout concern if Jokic is unable to play, especially seeing as the Nuggets are 2-4 on the road this season.
The good news is, even in a blowout, the Nuggets have been playing the 35-year old veteran plenty of minutes. Green has played 20 or more minutes in eight straight games, and I don’t see anything different happening tonight. He is a solid value play across the industry tonight but stands out on DraftKings more as he has an 83% Bargain Rating.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Phoenix Suns – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
Another big-time player who is questionable to play tonight is Nikola Jokic. He missed the last game due to injury, so we definitely need to monitor his status. If he is able to play, he is my favorite spend-up option on the slate. Jokic has the highest ceiling in our Tournament Model today. That comes with no surprise; we just need to make sure he’s healthy.
Jokic is the safest spend-up option in cash games tonight. He leads the entire Nuggets team this season in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Jokic is averaging career-highs in field goal percentage with 59.3%, 3-point percentage with 41%, and rebounds with 13.6 per game. With no Jamal Murray all season and now without Michael Porter Jr., Jokic has literally had to do nearly everything for this team. If he plays, lock him in.
If he is unable to play, I would pivot down to Deandre Ayton and find a way to reconstruct your lineup.
Top Value: Nerlens Noel at Chicago Bulls – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
I am going to anticipate some injury news with this last value play in Nerlens Noel. Noel played 29 minutes last night while only going for two points and six rebounds as he was in foul trouble most of the night. He played heavy minutes due to Taj Gibson being out, and then Mitchell Robinson was injured and did not return. I am going to assume both miss this game.
If both Gibson and Robinson are indeed out, this sets up Noel for being one of the best value plays on the slate. Noel has only played in five games this season. Two of which he averaged over a positive 10 Plus/Minus, while the other three games were duds. I wouldn’t worry too much about the inconsistency in this spot, especially with his price. I would much rather like to get to Noel on DraftKings, where he has an 86% Bargain Rating.
