The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Fred VanVleet vs. Washington Wizards – $9,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
I would prefer Trae Young as my top point guard option, but he is questionable with an injury. That opens the door for Fred VanVleet, who draws a home matchup against the Washington Wizards. Behind Young, VanVleet has the highest ceiling on FanDuel in our model for point guard.
FanDuel is where I am most interested in VanVleet. He has a 97% Bargain Rating and has had a positive Plus/Minus in 11 of his last 15 games, and most recently four of his last five games. With OG Anunoby sidelined still due to injury, that has helped VanVleet take on more of a scoring role. In eight games without Anunoby this season, VanVleet is averaging 2.4 more points per game.
Top Value: Ish Smith at Atlanta Hawks – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Ish Smith benefits greatly with LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier out tonight due to Covid protocols. He has seen an extremely elevated price tag, but our model has Smith projected to play 35 minutes tonight! He still provides value at this salary playing that many minutes.
Smith is in his 12th season and has played for 13 teams now, including the Charlotte Hornets. The journeyman has played in 17 games this season but has never played more than 24 minutes in a game. There is so much opportunity for Smith tonight, so please don’t be intimidated by his increased salary.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram at Houston Rockets – $8,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Brandon Ingram is finally starting to show his upside again. He has scored over 20 points in five of his last six games. In his last game against the Mavericks, Ingram set a career-high in assists as he finished with 12 to go along with his 24 points and eight rebounds. He had a season-high 57 DraftKings points.
I love Ingram in this matchup tonight against the Houston Rockets, who play at the fastest Pace in the entire league. The Pelicans have the second-highest implied point total on the slate, which is promising for Ingram as the offense will continue to run through him. Ingram leads the Pelicans this season in points, assists, and usage rate. He is our highest-rated SF on FanDuel, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating.
Note: Brandon Ingram is only SF eligible on FanDuel.
Top Value: Armoni Brooks vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
With Kevin Porter Jr. out tonight due to injury, Armoni Brooks will more than likely move into the starting lineup. With Porter Jr. leaving last game in the first half, it was Brooks who drew the start in the second half. Our model has Brooks with the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate on DraftKings at +11.17. He is projected for 32 minutes tonight, which provides incredible value on this slate.
Brooks is projected to be one of the highest, if not the highest owned player on the slate tonight. He is a must for cash games and will be tough to avoid in tournaments due to his cheap salary. The Pelicans rank 26th in Defensive Rating this season, and Brooks is in line for a heavy workload.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Miles Bridges at Atlanta Hawks – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Miles Bridges is the highest-priced Hornets player on the slate. With Ball out of the lineup, that could help and hurt Bridges tonight. Ball currently leads the Hornets in points, assists, rebounds, and steals. Using our On/Off tool, Bridges receives a +2.1% usage rate with Ball off the court this season.
The reason for concern with Bridges is Ball pushes the pace so much in transition and creates so many easy scoring chances for Bridges and the rest of the Hornets. Bridges is tied for 11th in the league in most field goals made within five feet of the basket. The Hawks rank 20th in most points allowed in the paint this season. I love his potential tonight, but understand there is risk involved.
Top Value: Garrison Matthews vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
I will start off by saying, I much rather prefer Garrison Matthews in cash games tonight than in tournaments. I really like the floor that Matthews brings to the table. He has had over 20 DraftKings points in four straight games, but his high is only 28.25 during that stretch.
Matthews is reliant on his scoring. He is averaging 17.25 points per game while shooting 52% from the field in his last four games. However, during that time, he has averaged 2.5 rebounds per game and has only ONE assist in four games. He is playing heavy minutes for a depleted Houston Rockets team. Scoring opportunities will be there against a putrid Pelicans defense, but he needs to get to value by his scoring, which is always a little risky.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: John Collins vs. Charlotte Hornets – $7,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
The price discount we get on John Collins from Clint Capela is starting to be too big, in my opinion. This season, Collins is averaging 34.2 DraftKings points per game, while Capela is averaging 34.4 DraftKings points per game. However, Capela is priced above Collins by $1,100 on DraftKings and $700 on FanDuel. That is significant, and I don’t understand the price gap.
Collins seems to be the forgotten man for the Hawks, and I don’t understand why. On FanDuel, he has had a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 11 games. He has multi-position eligibility on both sites, which also gives him the upper hand to Capela. The Hornets rank 29th in Rebounding Percentage this season, so Collins should be able to feast on their depleted frontcourt tonight.
Top Value: Danilo Gallinari vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,700 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
From one Atlanta Hawks player to the next. I love the value on Danilo Gallinari tonight. His price tag has come up on both sites, but with the injury concerns of Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter could open up even more playing time and usage for Gallinari. Keep an eye on their status for this game, as Gallinari would look much better if they were unable to play tonight.
Gallinari has played 29 and 28 minutes in his last two games and has averaged 13.5 points per game, seven rebounds per game, and three assists per game. He provides a high usage rate coming off the bench and is a cheap way to get exposure to this very exciting game environment.
Center
Top Ceiling: Christian Wood at Brooklyn Nets – $9,600 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
There are two centers priced at $9,000 or above on DraftKings, and I prefer spending up to Christian Wood than to go a little cheaper, Jonas Valanciunas. They play against each other, which is always intriguing. I don’t mind playing both in lineups, which you can do on either site.
Wood has a MASSIVE usage increase of +9.1%, with Porter Jr. and Jalen Green not on the floor this season. If you take out the game in which he left due to injury, Wood is averaging an absurd +20.37 Plus/Minus in his last four full games played on FanDuel. He comes in with a 95% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Daniel Gafford at Toronto Raptors – $5,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
There isn’t a lot of good cheap value at the center position tonight, so I would prefer to spend up a little more and get to Daniel Gafford. We are seeing a bit of a shift between Gafford and Montrezl Harrell. Gafford has played more minutes than Harrell in five straight games.
Gafford is cheaper than Harrell on DraftKings but more expensive on FanDuel. He has had a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five games. The Raptors rank 23rd in Defensive Rating this season and 21st in offensive rebounds allowed. Gafford has averaged two offensive rebounds per game and has had a double-double on points and rebounds in three of his last four games.
