The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
It has been a while since we have seen Damian Lillard on the floor. He has missed the last five games for the Trail Blazers but is expected back tonight against the Timberwolves. He comes back at a needed time as the Trail Blazers have lost seven of their last eight games.
The Trail Blazers will be playing without CJ McCollum, which should benefit the outlook of Lillard in this spot. Last season in 24 games without McCollum, Lillard averaged 31.2 points per game on 21.8 field goal attempts per game and 8.3 assists per game. He also had a crazy 34.8% usage rate. I prefer to get to Lillard on FanDuel tonight, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating.
Note: Damian Lillard is still listed as questionable tonight.
Top Value: Jalen Brunson at Oklahoma City Thunder – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
The Dallas Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic, who is out due to injury. That will open up extra playing time and usage for Jalen Brunson. Doncic has missed four games already this season, so we have a decent sample size of these Brunson opportunities. When Doncic is out of the lineup, Brunson has seen an increase of +4.2 points per game, +1.2 rebounds per game, +4.8 assists per game, and +7.4 field goal attempts per game. During that time, he also has a usage rate of 27.2% and is playing 35.8 minutes per game.
Our model has Brunson as the highest projected Plus/Minus point guard on the slate tonight for both sites. This game has by far the lowest total on the slate at 207.5 points. However, the extra opportunities that Brunson will get still makes him one of the strongest values on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Portland Trail Blazers – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Anthony Edwards has had a negative Plus/Minus in four out of his last five games. He has struggled even with his teammate D’Angelo Russell out for the last three games. Russell is questionable once again tonight. Edwards is another player that I prefer on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating. We have seen the upside in Edwards, so we know he can pop at any given moment. He has scored over 60 FanDuel points in two games this season, and those were both with Russell healthy.
The Trail Blazers rank 28th in Defensive Rating this season, and they have given up 111 points per game. This game environment should produce a lot of fantasy points. The game total is 221.5 points which is the highest amount on the slate tonight.
Top Value: Cam Thomas at Detroit Pistons – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
The value shooting guard that I want to get to tonight is Cam Thomas. The Brooklyn Nets will be playing without their All-Star point guard James Harden who will miss his first game of the season. Since Thomas is a rookie, we don’t have a lot to go off of here. However, using our On/Off tool, Thomas has played 114 minutes without Harden on the floor this season and has a +4.6% usage rate.
Thomas is a scoring-dependent player which keeps his floor pretty low. He has shown a little rebounding upside, but he is only averaging 1.6 assists per game. However, his scoring will be needed as Harden is averaging 20.8 points per game. Harden is leading the team in rebounds, assists, and steals this season. There is a lot of production to go around for Thomas and the Nets players.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Detroit Pistons – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
The main Brooklyn Nets player that I want to get to tonight is Kevin Durant. With James Harden off of the floor, Durant has had an absurd +11.5 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 183 minutes to go along with a +4.6% usage rate. We saw Harden go for nearly a triple-double with Durant not in the lineup two games ago. Well, now it is time for Durant to see what he can do without Harden.
Durant continues to lead the league in points scoring 28.5 per game while shooting 53% from the field. This matchup against the 4-21 Detroit Pistons is very enticing. The Pistons rank 22nd in Defensive Rating this season, and they have allowed a league-worst 47.8% shooting from the field. Durant will have any shot that he wants tonight, especially with no Jerami Grant for the Pistons in the lineup.
Top Value: Terrence Ross at Los Angeles Lakers – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
If the Orlando Magic are going to stay in this game against the Los Angeles Lakers, they will need the points from Terrence Ross. He has been very good lately, and he is projected to get 22 minutes tonight, which I think is low. Ross has had a positive Plus/Minus in four out of his last five games.
The Lakers certainly are not an intimidating matchup anymore. They play at the second-fastest Pace this season, and they have allowed the third-most points with 112.1 per game. The Lakers also have allowed the third-most points in the paint this season. This is a cheap way to get a piece of this 221 game total. Ross can get hot from the perimeter and easily pay off this price tag.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Orlando Magic – $10,800 DraftKings, $00 FanDuel
LeBron James has really had to turn it on probably earlier than he wanted to this season with the Los Angeles Lakers struggles. James has had 30 or more points in five out of his last seven games. He has a positive Plus/Minus in each of those five games. He may be in line for extra work as Anthony Davis is questionable once again. Keep an eye on his status because that will make James look even better.
This is a prime matchup at home for the Lakers. The Orlando Magic rank dead last in Defensive Rating this season, and they have allowed 112 points per game. The Lakers are heavy 11-point favorites tonight, but the Lakers normally keep their opponents in the games. The price has gone up, but James is an interesting pivot from Kevin Durant as the top pay-up option.
Top Value: Trey Lyles vs. Brooklyn Nets – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
There is a mixture of Detroit Pistons players who could benefit from the Jerami Grant injury. The options are not that exciting, but my pick of the litter is going to be Trey Lyles. Using our On/Off tool, Lyles is the player who has played the most minutes with Grant off the floor this season with 304 minutes. Lyles is projected for 25 minutes tonight, which could be very nice at this price.
The Nets are favored by 7.5 points tonight, so even with Grant out, I would not go crazy with any of these Pistons players. The Pistons have a ridiculous low 101.75 implied points total. The Nets rank fifth in Defensive Rating this season. Tough spot, but I do think Lyles benefits the most.
Center
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns at Portland Trail Blazers – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Deciding between Karl-Anthony Towns and Jonas Valanciunas as the top center option is difficult. I am going with the player with the higher minutes and the higher ceiling projection in our model, and that belongs to Karl-Anthony Towns. He also has a better Opponent Rating tonight. The Trail Blazers are not a good defensive team and I like this game environment for Towns.
The Timberwolves have lost five straight games and really need to get back into the win column. They have a great chance tonight in this matchup which should be led by Towns. He has surpassed Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell with the highest usage rate on the team this season, with 27.5%.
Top Value: Jusuf Nurkic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $7,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Value for the center position tonight is a wasteland. Instead of recommending a very weak risky play, I am going to provide a mid-range play that I really like tonight, and that is Jusuf Nurkic. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the center on FanDuel tonight at a ridiculous +13.26. He has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he has a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games.
The Timberwolves have been abysmal against opposing centers this season. They have allowed the third-most rebounds per game and the second-most offensive rebounds per game. Good news for Nurkic, who is averaging a double-double this season with 13.3 points per game and 10.2 rebounds per game. He will also benefit from CJ McCollum not being in the lineup.
