The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Russell Westbrook at Portland Trail Blazers – $10,900 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Russell Westbrook is a site-dependent play tonight. He costs $10,900 on DraftKings, while he is very affordable on FanDuel at $9,600. The DraftKings price tag makes him a tournament-only option for me. On FanDuel, he comes in at an incredible 97% Bargain Rating. The big news is obviously no LeBron James tonight. Without James, Westbrook has a 35.1% usage rate. In comparison, he has a 26.7% with James. That is almost a 10% increase which is absurd!
He is still struggling shooting the ball in typical “Westbrick” fashion. He is averaging a True Shooting Percentage of 49.3%, which is his lowest mark since his second year in the league. However, does it really matter when he’s going to get this much opportunity with the ball in his hands? This matchup against the Trail Blazers has the highest over/under on the slate at 225.5 points, with the Lakers as road underdogs. The Trail Blazers are also coming off of a back-to-back in which they got their first win in four games. I love Westbrook tonight, especially on FanDuel.
Top Value: Alex Caruso vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Seeing Alex Caruso under $4,000 on DraftKings immediately caught my attention. Caruso isn’t the most flashy player off the bench, but he can fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways, and he is a pest defensively. He leads the Bulls with 2.5 steals per game, which is also fourth in the entire league. Without Patrick Williams in the lineup anymore due to injury, Caruso has been closing for the Bulls and has the upside to play 30+ minutes every night.
Caruso makes for a great cash game option on tonight’s slate on DraftKings. He has only had two games all season where he had a negative Plus/Minus and failed to score 20 DraftKings points. He is averaging 22.7 DraftKings points per game which is great value at $3,900. The Philadelphia 76ers play at the slowest pace in the league, which isn’t ideal. However, I feel that causes more trouble for the higher-priced Bulls players. I am totally fine with the savings that Caruso brings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
The shooting guard with the highest ceiling on the slate tonight, in my opinion, is Devin Booker. After a slow start to the season, Booker is starting to cook. In three of his last four games, Booker has had a usage rate of over 35%, which is crazy high. It helps when you have a point guard like Chris Paul, who is a pass-first floor general. Paul leads the league in assists with 12 per game, which is 2.8 higher than the next closest player. Booker is attempting a career-high 19.9 field goals per game.
This over/under with the Atlanta Hawks is the second-highest on the slate tonight at 225 points, with the Suns favored by five points. The Hawks rank 25th this season in Defensive Rating, and they are below average, covering the 3-point line. The volume for Booker will be there, and he has the upside to go for 50+ DraftKings points tonight. He has proven he can do that in two games already this season.
He is starting to heat up, and it is time to hop on board to ride the momentum.
Top Value: Shake Milton at Chicago Bulls – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
One of my favorite teams to target tonight is the Philadelphia 76ers, and that starts with guard Shake Milton. He started last game and went on to score 16 points along with eight rebounds, five assists, and two steals. He played 33 minutes which was by far the most he has played all season while having a 22.3% usage rate.
The 76ers have some key injuries tonight. Most of which are at the forward position, which I will go over with another value play, but Danny Green is also listed as questionable, and he hasn’t played in the last two games. Tyrese Maxey is intriguing on this slate, but I would much rather take the discount on Milton, who is $1,400 cheaper on DraftKings and $900 cheaper on FanDuel.
Milton makes for a great cash game play tonight on both sites and is hard to get away from in tournaments as well.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Dallas Mavericks – $9,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
It has been a tough start to the season for Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics. They have won back-to-back games on this road trip and play tonight looking for three straight against the Dallas Mavericks. They will have to do so without Jaylen Brown, who is out due to injury. Maybe that will be the spark that Tatum needs. In the one game Brown missed this season, Tatum went for 31 points and nine rebounds on 24 field goal attempts and a 32.9% usage rate.
Tatum hasn’t found his shot yet this season. He is averaging a career-low field goal percentage (37.3%), 3-point percentage (27.1%), and even free throw percentage (74.5%). It’s time to shoot himself out of this slump. I also think Tatum has a great shot at getting rebounds if his shot isn’t falling right away. A double-double is firmly on the table. The Mavericks have allowed the most defensive rebounds so far this season at 39.8 per game.
The price tag is a little high, but the upside for a ceiling game without Brown is available for Tatum tonight.
Top Value: Norman Powell vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $4,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Coming in with the highest Pts/Sal and the highest rating at the small forward position on DraftKings is Norman Powell, and it is not particularly close. Powell is only $4,800 on DraftKings with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He is coming off of three games in a row with over 20 points and a 25% or higher usage rate in all three. He has had double-digit shot attempts in every game since returning from injury. He won’t add many peripherals, but he’ll torch the nets all night long.
No doubt the lack of offensive firepower right now from Damian Lillard has contributed to the role players like Powell finding success. He was brought in to score, and he’s doing just that, averaging 16.8 points per game while shooting a career-high 51.4% from the field. He is averaging 2.6 made 3-pointers in his last five games, which feeds perfectly into DraftKings scoring and his cheap price. The FanDuel price seems a bit steep, but he is worth a tournament flier.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Portland Trail Blazers – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
The second Los Angeles Lakers star that I like tonight is Anthony Davis, who comes in at a much more reasonable price, especially on DraftKings. He is listed as questionable tonight so make sure to monitor the news on his health. I assume he will play because he played through his injury last game, but Davis is usually made of glass, so you never know. If, for some reason, he were to miss the game tonight, be sure to fire up Dwight Howard or DeAndre Jordan.
This is rather simple. Without LeBron James this season, Davis is averaging 1.54 DraftKings points per minute, compared to 1.36 with James. He is averaging 31.3 points per game, 14.3 rebounds per game, and a 31.9% usage rate. He is the focal point of this offense without James on the floor. The Trail Blazers are third-best in allowing rebounds this season. That will be put to the test against Davis.
I would be shocked if he didn’t get his sixth double-double on the season tonight.
Top Value: Georges Niang at Chicago Bulls – $4,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Another Philadelphia 76ers value play that I like on the slate tonight is Georges Niang, who is only power forward eligible on FanDuel but has both forward positions on DraftKings. The price tag came up $900 on FanDuel and $500 on DraftKings since his last game. Niang benefits from the 76ers injury situation greatly. At the forward position tonight, Tobias Harris and Matisse Thybulle are out, while Furkan Korkmaz is listed as questionable, but he missed last game.
Niang has played 31 minutes in each of his last three games and has averaged a Plus/Minus over +14 in those games. In that stretch, he has averaged 17.7 points per game, five rebounds per game, and has attempted an average of 13 field goals per game.
Despite the price increase, I love the value that Niang brings on both sites, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 79% Bargain Rating.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Chicago Bulls – $10,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Last but certainly not least on this Philadelphia 76ers team is star center Joel Embiid. Certainly, Embiid still looks hampered by a knee injury, but I can’t get away from his upside that he brings without Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. The price tag on FanDuel is still far too low at $9,300, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95%. The $10,300 tag on DraftKings makes him a very solid tournament option, but keep in mind that Embiid has only had a positive Plus/Minus in ONE game all season.
Despite leading the 76ers in usage rate by nearly 7%, it has been a struggle for Embiid this season. His 20.4 points per game and 8.8 rebounds per game are the worst in his career since his rookie season. He is also shooting a career-low 41.2% from the field. He is being out-rebounded by both Harris and Andre Drummond. However, the opportunity for a huge Embiid game is still there.
Using our On/Off tool, Embiid had a 45.2% usage rate which is an 8.7% increase, while also having a plus/minus of +18.4 without Simmons and Harris on the floor last season. So much opportunity. It’s only a matter of time until another monster performance.
Top Value: Deandre Ayton vs. Atlanta Hawks – $6,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
With Embiid locking up your center position on FanDuel, Deandre Ayton can be your option on DraftKings. Ayton comes in with a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and seems almost unplayable on FanDuel at his lofty $7,800 price tag. After sitting out one game due to his injury, Ayton was able to play 26 minutes last game and accumulate 16 points and 11 rebounds for his third consecutive double-double. Ayton is averaging 18.0 points per game and 14.7 rebounds per game in his last three.
The Atlanta Hawks have a big frontcourt with Clint Capela and John Collins, which may force Ayton to play more than 30 minutes tonight. As I mentioned with his teammate Devin Booker, this is a very winnable matchup against the Hawks. The over/under suggests many opportunities to rack up DraftKings points.
I really like the projected minutes of 31.2 for Ayton in the Phan Model, and I love his salary on DraftKings tonight.
