The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball at Houston Rockets – $10,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
I am going to take a little bit of savings from the top and go down to LaMelo Ball as my top ceiling point guard. Ball has had an interesting last two games. He was benched for trying an alley-oop to himself that didn’t go as planned and was in foul trouble during the first game. Their last game, the Hornets, won 133-115, but that game wasn’t as close as the score indicates as Ball only played 29 minutes and didn’t touch the court the entire fourth quarter.
The Hornets are 6-point favorites tonight as they have won eight of their last nine games playing against a 2-15 Houston Rockets team, so there is a chance at this game getting away. However, this matchup against the Rockets is too difficult to ignore. The Rockets lead the league in Pace this season, while the Hornets rank third. This is going to be a track meet with a lot of fantasy points. I love getting to Ball’s triple-double upside in this spot. Don’t shy away from his lack of minutes recently.
Top Value: Kevin Porter Jr. vs. Charlotte Hornets – $5,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
As you can tell, I love this Charlotte Hornets, and Houston Rockets game as my value point guard is Rockets player Kevin Porter Jr. The Rockets will be without Jalen Green, who is sidelined for at least a week due to injury, so Porter Jr. will get as much usage and ball-handling duties as he can handle. They shocked the league by winning their second game of the season, beating the Chicago Bulls at home. Porter Jr. had 14 points, six rebounds, and nine assists for 31.7 DraftKings points.
According to our On/Off tool, Porter Jr. receives the biggest bump with Green, not on the floor. The best thing about rostering Porter Jr. tonight is you know he will be gunning from the start. Despite shooting a career-low 36.4% from the field, he will need to be aggressive if the Rockets want any chance at keeping this game competitive.
Note: Derrick Rose and Kemba Walker have both been ruled out tonight for the Knicks. I also really like Immanuel Quickley for value. He has a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 11 games.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $8,100 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
After an extremely disappointing loss to the New Orleans Pelicans last night, these two teams run it back again tonight, with the Utah Jazz favored by 12.5 points. The Jazz have the second-highest implied total on the slate at 114 points behind the Hornets. I love this bounce-back spot for Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz tonight.
Our model has Mitchell as the highest-rated shooting guard on DraftKings tonight, along with the highest ceiling. The Pelicans rank 25th in Defensive Rating this season as they have allowed 108.7 points per game. Mitchell has struggled in back-to-back games scoring under 30 DraftKings points. This price tag is too low for his upside, and I think he bounces back in a big way tonight. Mitchell ranks fifth among all players this season with a 33% usage rate.
Top Value: Cameron Payne at Brooklyn Nets – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Value at the shooting guard position isn’t always easy to find, but Cameron Payne stands out in the game of the night between the Phoenix Suns and Brooklyn Nets. Once Payne came back, the Suns have been scorching hot. They have won 15-straight games, as Payne has played in 12 of those 15 games. He has a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of those 12 games.
The best news for Payne is the minutes are slowly starting to ramp up. He has played at least 20 minutes in three of his last four games, with the only exception being last night when the Suns blew out the Knicks 118-97. It’s not only the minutes, but Payne has been playing with a crazy high usage rate. Payne’s 28% usage rate is second to Devin Booker this season.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Phoenix Suns – $10,800 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
I spoke to the Suns’ hot streak, but the Brooklyn Nets have been nearly just as good. The Nets have won 12 of their last 14 games and are actually favored tonight, which is the second time all season the Suns have been underdogs. This is a big-time game, and the player I want in a big-time game is none other than Kevin Durant. The price tag is high, but Durant is the highest-rated small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our model tonight.
I prefer Kevin Durant to James Harden on both sites, despite Harden being cheaper on FanDuel. This has been a weird start to the season for Harden, who is averaging “only” 20.7 points per game while shooting 14.1 field goals per game. Both are the lowest totals he has had since the 2011-12 season. You would think without Kyrie Irving, he would take more of a scoring role, but he has deferred to Durant more often this season. Smart decision as Durant has been sensational. He is averaging 28.1 points per game while shooting a career-high 55.6% from the field. Not bad for the 33-year old veteran coming off of two severe injuries. Durant is my favorite spend-up option on the slate.
Top Value: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at Dallas Mavericks – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
The trade for Russell Westbrook hasn’t really worked out so far for the Los Angeles Lakers as the Washington Wizards got a steal in not only Kyle Kuzma and Montrezl Harrell but also in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He leads the surprise 12-7 Wizards in steals with 1.4 per game and 3-point percentage with 37.7%.
The Dallas Mavericks have allowed the fifth-highest 3-point percentage this season with 35.9%. I love this spot for Caldwell-Pope on DraftKings, where not only does he have a 79% Bargain Rating, but he also gets the extra bonus for every 3-pointer made. He is averaging 15.5 points per game and 3.25 3-pointers made over his last four games. The Mavericks have the lowest turnover percentage in the league, but Caldwell-Pope has had at least one steal in 13 of his last 14 games.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Atlanta Hawks – $10,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
The top end of power forward tonight on DraftKings is not looking all that great, especially in cash games. Julius Randle has the highest ceiling, but he has had a negative Plus/Minus in six of his last eight games. He has scored fewer than 30 points in half of those games. That simply won’t get it done at this lofty price tag.
Randle is tough to get to on DraftKings but is a completely different story on FanDuel. He is $1,500 cheaper on FanDuel and has a 98% Bargain Rating. That is where I want to target Randle tonight. The Hawks rank 23rd in Defensive Rating, and Randle continues to lead the Knicks in usage rate, points, rebounds, and assists this season. The Knicks are 7-point road underdogs, but if they keep this game close, it will be on the back of Julius Randle.
Top Value: Wendell Carter Jr. at Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
The best-rated power forward in our model on DraftKings is Wendell Carter Jr., who is coming off of one of his best games of the season last night against the Chicago Bulls. In a revenge game for Carter Jr. he put up 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks. He finished with 47 DraftKings points while only playing 30 minutes because the Magic lost by 35 points.
The Cleveland Cavaliers get Evan Mobley back tonight from injury, so they are fully healthy in their frontcourt. They are on a 5-game losing streak but are 7-point favorites tonight with the lowest total on the slate at 203.5 points. If Cole Anthony is out again, there could be more Magic value players to get to, but Carter Jr. is my main target. The Magic have a ridiculously low 98.25 implied total. The matchup is difficult, but Carter Jr. is simply too cheap for his talent level.
Center
Top Ceiling: Christian Wood vs. Charlotte Hornets – $7,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Let’s get one more player from this Houston Rockets and Charlotte Hornets game tonight with Christian Wood. If this game is competitive, Wood is going to absolutely smash this price tag. In competitive games, Wood is playing 35+ minutes. In nine games this season where Wood has played 35 or more minutes, he is averaging 17.1 points per game and 13.7 rebounds per game. Wood leads the Rockets in points, rebounds, and blocks this season.
The matchup for Wood tonight against the Charlotte Hornets, is exceptional, especially on the glass. The Hornets are allowing the most rebounds this season with 49.2 per game. They also are allowing the fourth-most points in the paint at 47.9 per game. Wood should be able to feast on this undersized Hornets frontcourt tonight.
Top Value: Willy Hernangomez at Utah Jazz – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Willy Hernangomez has fully taken over the backup center role for the Pelicans behind Jonas Valanciunas. He has taken that role and ran with it. Over the last three games, Hernangomez has averaged 15 points per game and 8.7 rebounds per game while scoring 30 or more DraftKings points in every game. During that time, he has averaged a Plus/Minus of +16.80 while having a usage rate of 20% or higher in each game. The crazy part is he hasn’t played more than 23 minutes yet!
The salary for Hernangomez has certainly increased, but on DraftKings, he is still in play as he has an 86% Bargain Rating. I would steer clear at his salary on FanDuel as you can only have one center in your lineup. The Jazz are 13-point favorites tonight as they just lost to this Pelicans team 98-97 last night. This is a difficult matchup for Hernangomez, but with potential blowout run, he could be even more valuable tonight.
