The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $9,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
We may not have hit full “Dame Time” yet with Damian Lillard, but we sure are close. Lillard has scored over 40 DraftKings points in six straight games while averaging 24.3 points per game, and 3.5 made 3-pointers per game. Something I feel that is going a little bit under the radar is Lillard averaging a career-high 8.2 assists per game, which ranks fifth-best in the league.
This home matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers is a juicy one. They have lost five of their last six games as they have really struggled without Joel Embiid. Without Embiid on the floor, the 76ers have had a Defensive Rating of 115.6 per game while they have a Defensive Rating of 108.1 per game with Embiid on the floor. The Trail Blazers are 7-1 at home this season, and this is a fantastic matchup for Lillard. I like his outlook more than the other point guard studs on this slate.
Lillard’s price on FanDuel is exceptional as he has a 91% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Jalen Suggs at Milwaukee Bucks – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
The best point guard value on the slate tonight is Jalen Suggs. The highly-touted rookie out of Gonzaga has been very boom or bust early in his career. He is far too cheap tonight for his upside and production. Suggs showed what he is capable of doing last night. He finished with 37.5 DraftKings points on 21 points and four 3-pointers which tied his season-high.
The only concern here is the blowout. The Milwaukee Bucks are 11-point favorites at home. However, Suggs should see over 25 minutes regardless of the scoreboard. He has been a bit overshadowed by the incredible season Cole Anthony is having, but Suggs still has a 25.8% usage rate which is barely lower than Anthony’s 26.0% this season. The Bucks rank 20th in Defensive Rating this season, which is surprising seeing they led all playoff teams last season in Defensive Rating.
I love Suggs on both sites tonight, but he has a better value on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Sacramento Kings – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
LaMelo Ball is very intriguing now that he has point guard and shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings, and he also makes for a great play on FanDuel as well due to his salary. However, I am going to take the savings with Donovan Mitchell in this fantastic matchup against the Sacramento Kings. His production has gone down, but that is solely due to blowouts.
Over the last two games, the Jazz have won both games by an average of 25.5 points. Despite having a 6-10 record, the Kings points differential this season is only negative one point. They can certainly stick in this home game against the Jazz despite being 7-point home underdogs. The Kings rank 24th in Defensive Rating and eighth in Pace this season. The price tag on Mitchell has dropped too low on both sites. He still is fourth in the league in usage rate this season.
Top Value: Marcus Smart vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $5,100 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Before we get to the ceiling Boston Celtics player, we must first talk about the value that Marcus Smart brings to the table tonight. He is coming off of a season-high 22 points where he shot a very efficient 9-13 from the field while only making one 3-pointer. The big news as always for the Celtics is the status of Jaylen Brown. Monitor his status in our news dashboard.
I really like Smart on DraftKings tonight. He has a 94% Bargain Rating and has had a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games. Not only that, but he has averaged a +9.5 Plus/Minus in those five games. He is really starting to find his groove after causing some friction in the Celtics locker room earlier this season. He is also tied for the league lead in steals with 2.5 per game. He is known for always giving his best effort, even with the Celtics are heavily favored like tonight.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Jayson Tatum is once again below $10,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, which always is appealing to the eyes. Tatum is coming off of a great game last night against the Los Angeles Lakers. As I just mentioned, Brown is questionable to play tonight. He has been out for the last six games. Similar on Smart, the status of Brown makes a big difference with Tatum.
In eight games without Brown in the lineup this season, Tatum is averaging 28.4 points per game, 9.3 rebounds per game, and 3.8 made 3-pointers per game. He also has a 33.5% usage rate, with Brown not on the floor. I do still like Tatum even if Brown is able to suit up, but he becomes a near must if Brown is out. Tatum had 37 points and 11 rebounds last night while ending with 64.75 DraftKings points. If you are going a stars and scrubs approach, do not forget about Tatum tonight.
Top Value: Rudy Gay at Sacramento Kings – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Does everyone remember Rudy Gay?! The 35-year old journeyman is back from injury and is now with the Utah Jazz. He played against the Toronto Raptors last game and, even in a difficult matchup, scored 20 points in 18 minutes after shooting a blistering 7-8 from the field and 5-6 from 3-point range. He finished that game with 30.25 DraftKings points.
I certainly don’t expect Gay to shoot that well again tonight, but this matchup at least gives the opportunity for Gay to repeat his performance. The Kings are allowing 110.5 points per game which is the sixth-highest in the league. If, for some reason, this game does get out of hand, I would imagine Gay will get some extra run to try and get his feet back under him. On FanDuel, he still seems a little over-priced, but on DraftKings, he is very valuable due to his price and position eligibility.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Orlando Magic – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
The player with the highest ceiling in our Tournament Model is none other than Giannis Antetokounmpo. No surprise there! Giannis has scored over 60 DraftKings points in four out of his last six games. Even with Khris Middleton coming back into the lineup, that did not stop Giannis from putting up a 60-burger. He is the best pay-up option on the slate.
Giannis is third in the entire league in usage rate with 34.4% and points with 28 per game. This is the fifth straight year averaging a double-double as he is averaging 11.1 rebounds per game. The Orlando Magic have a very young team and no one that can truly guard Giannis. The Magic rank 26th in Defensive Rating. Giannis should get whatever he wants tonight.
Giannis has a high ceiling on both sites, but especially on FanDuel, where he has an 87% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Chimezie Metu vs Utah Jazz – $4,200 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Ever since Alex Len left the Sacramento Kings, that has allowed for more playing time for Chimezie Metu, and he has taken advantage of that extra time. Since entering the starting lineup, Metu is averaging 11 points per game, eight rebounds per game, and has one block in every game. He also has provided at least two 3-pointers in three of those four games.
Metu has shown the game to be a solid stretch power forward while also using his size down in the interior. Obviously, scoring down low against Rudy Gobert is nearly an impossible feat, but that will be more often than not the duty for Richaun Holmes instead of Metu. Unfortunately, Metu is only center eligible on FanDuel, making him tough to get to because there are always great center options. He does, however have a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games. If you really wanted to pay up at the other positions, Metu is your punt option on FanDuel for center tonight.
Note: Chimezie Metu is only C eligible on FanDuel.
Center
Top Ceiling: Andre Drummond at Portland Trail Blazers – $7,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
I know what you’re thinking — Andre Drummond again, really? This price tag across the industry is simply too low, with Joel Embiid still out due to injury. The last two games have been extremely disappointing for not only Drummond but for the Philadelphia 76ers as well. They have lost five of their last six games and are 6-point underdogs in Portland tonight.
Drummond’s last two games have been pitiful, so if you are game-log watching, you may immediately look past him. However, I think that is a mistake tonight. The Trail Blazers rank 22nd in Defensive Rating this season while ranking 13th in Pace this season. Opposing big man Jusuf Nurkic only plays around 25 minutes per game, but at this price and how active Drummond can be on the court, even if he only plays around 25 minutes tonight he can still easily pay off this salary.
Top Value: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl at Boston Celtics – $3,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
The Oklahoma City Thunder have lost three of their last four games but have shown some progress with their young lineups. One of those young promising players is Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. His price on FanDuel has shot to the moon, but he is PF eligible which helps. However, I much prefer him on DraftKings, where he has a ridiculous 98% Bargain Rating.
Robinson-Earl has a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last fives games on DraftKings. He was in early foul trouble last night against the Milwaukee Bucks but still found a way to play 28 minutes. His heavy minutes and price tag make up for this less than ideal matchup against the Boston Celtics. The rookie has started eight games for the Thunder and is averaging 5.9 points per game and 5.2 rebounds per game. He has even shown that he can be a threat from the 3-point line as well.
Note: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is only PF eligible on FanDuel
