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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $9,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
The LaMelo Ball experience has been a bit of a roller coaster lately. In his last four games, he has two over 45 DraftKings points and two under 26. He has shown triple-double upside, so he always presents a ceiling. His inconsistency keeps his price tag in check, which I love. On FanDuel, Ball’s salary has dropped very low, and now he provides us with a 95% Bargain Rating and makes him one of the best options on the slate.
This matchup against the Bucks features by far the highest game total on the slate at 233 points. The Hornets are 1-point favorites at home, where they are an impressive 10-5 this season. The Bucks have been an awesome interior defense, but they really struggle guarding the 3-point line. They have allowed the most 3-point attempts and the second-most 3-points field goals made per game. Ball has been much more aggressive scoring the ball this season as he has averaged 2.8 made 3-pointers per game this season.
Top Value: Killian Hayes vs. Orlando Magic – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Not many eyes are going to watch the 7-30 Pistons host the 7-32 Magic, but there is some value that we can take away from this disgusting game. For starters, this matchup should be one of the more competitive games. Pistons guard Killian Hayes comes in as our best value point guard. Value is tough to come by right now on this slate, but Hayes has the highest projected Plus/Minus among points guards tonight.
The Magic rank 25th in Defensive Rating and seventh in points allowed with 111.5 per game. Hayes actually plays better when he is alongside Cade Cunningham. His usage rate decreases, but he is much more efficient. This certainly isn’t a lock-in value play, but the salary relief that Hayes provides makes him viable on this slate. He will play solid minutes; let’s hope he can find his way into 20 DraftKings points.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Indiana Pacers – $9,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
After sitting out last night’s game, I would expect Donovan Mitchell to be back in the lineup today on the second leg of this back-to-back. Mitchell is another player who is absurdly priced on FanDuel tonight, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating. He has a positive Plus/Minus in 14 of his last 16 games on FanDuel. Mitchell continues to rank third in usage rate this season with 32.9%. He has led the Jazz in points ever since he entered the league.
The Jazz are 4-point road favorites against the Pacers tonight. Not only did Mitchell sit last game, but most of the Jazz players did. Monitor the news to see which of their players will be back in the lineup, and obviously make sure Mitchell is on the list. Depending on which players are in, Mitchell could see even more usage in this matchup. He ranks tied for fourth in most field goal attempts with 20.5 per game.
Top Value: Evan Fournier at Boston Celtics – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
I’ll be honest I’m not sure what kind of revenge Evan Fournier has on the Celtics after only playing there in 16 games, but I’m willing to ride the wave. For some reason seeing the Celtics makes Fournier turn a switch. In his three games already against the Celtics this season, Fournier is averaging 35.0 points while making an absurd 6.7 3-pointers per game. He has made 13.7 field goals while playing 43.0 minutes per game.
The Celtics are certainly not a bad defensive team at all. They rank eighth in Defensive Rating and 12th in opposing points allowed per game. It’s not like Fournier is having that good of a season; he has been benched many times due to his below-average play. He has scored 105 points against the Celtics and 514 total points this season. That translates to 20.4% of Fournier’s points are against the Celtics, which is insane.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. New York Knicks – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
One of the most disappointing teams in the league this season has been the Celtics. However, Jayson Tatum continues to play at an elite level. Since returning from the COVID protocol, Tatum has one poor game and one great game. The great game came against this same Knicks team in their last matchup, where Tatum went for 36 points, and six made 3-pointers. He finished with 65 DraftKings points which was the second-highest this season.
The Knicks have allowed the sixth-most 3-point attempts in the league. Among the 22 teams that Tatum has faced this season, he is averaging the most 3-point attempts against the Knicks than any other team. He will have to be pretty efficient once again as this matchup features the lowest total on the slate at 208.5 points. The Knicks rank 29th in pace, but Tatum has shown upside in this matchup and makes for a contrarian pay-up option.
Top Value: Jae Crowder vs. Miami Heat – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Another veteran player who seems to be providing some value on tonight’s slate is Suns forward Jae Crowder. Coming in at a relatively low price tag projected to play 30 minutes, Crowder will need to hit his open 3-pointers to likely pay off value. He has shown 30-point DraftKings upside a few times earlier this month and has seen increased playing time in his last two games. His defense will be needed in this matchup.
This late-night hammer features the game with the biggest blowout risk, especially if Jimmy Butler is unable to play for the Heat. The Suns are 8.5-point home favorites as they now hold the best record in the league at 30-8. Crowder has the highest projected Plus/Minus among small forwards on FanDuel tonight and actually ranks fifth-highest on the slate. Another play that seems risky, but Crowder provides value.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Charlotte Hornets – $11,600 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
Playing on a back-to-back, the most expensive player on both sites tonight by far is Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks had a commanding lead over the Nets last night, and Giannis only played 27 minutes. He still was phenomenal as he had 31 points, seven rebounds, and nine assists. Giannis will be one of the most popular plays on the slate regardless of the salary. I would recommend playing Giannis and getting different elsewhere.
The Hornets present a fantastic matchup for Giannis. They rank 28th in Defensive Rating and a league-worst 116.6 points per game. They also lead the league in Pace and are second in most points allowed in transition. Giannis leads the league in most possessions and most points scored in transition. With no Jrue Holiday, Giannis started at point guard last night. The price tag is high, but the ceiling is incredible.
Top Value: Bobby Portis at Charlotte Hornets– $6,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Staying with the Bucks, another value play that is popping like crazy on FanDuel tonight is Bobby Portis. His salary on FanDuel makes no sense. He has a 95% Bargain Rating coming off of a double-double with 25 points and 12 rebounds against the Nets. His DraftKings price isn’t even that bad either, given how awesome this matchup is. Portis has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel tonight.
Not only will Giannis feast in this spot, but Portis should as well. The Hornets rank dead last in Rebounding Percentage this season as they have allowed the second-most rebounds to their opponent with 48.1 per game. The Hornets also allow the most made 3-pointers in the league with 14.4 per game. Portis has made at least two 3-pointers in four-straight games. Portis is live to get another double-double tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Utah Jazz – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Besides Giannis, Domantas Sabonis has been one of the most consistent players on the slate. Over the last five games, Sabonis is averaging 23.6 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game. He has taken advantage of the loss of Malcolm Brogdon as he has increased every statistic. Brogdon is expected back tonight but hasn’t played since December 21st, so a minutes limit is on the table. I like Sabonis either way, but if Brogdon is out, his ceiling rises.
The Jazz present a difficult matchup on paper, but they are playing with a backup center that I will get to which helps Sabonis. This game has the second-highest total at 220.5 points. Sabonis is simply playing too well to ignore on this slate. This is a spot where I already like Sabonis, and if Brogdon and even Caris LeVert are unable to go, Sabonis will be one of the best options on the board.
Top Value: Hassan Whiteside at Indiana Pacers – $3,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
We have certainly saved the best for last, at least from a DraftKings perspective. Hassan Whiteside is the best play on DraftKings that we have seen for a while in our model. The pricing differences between sites is incredible. Whiteside has always been a DraftKings points per minute monster and is now projected to play 29 minutes as the Jazz will continue to be without Rudy Gobert due to the COVID protocols.
Whiteside leads the slate in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary. In their game last night, Whiteside played 30 minutes but had a disappointing outing, only scoring seven points and grabbing seven rebounds. Don’t let the poor performance intimidate you; Whiteside is the best play on the slate tonight. The Pacers have been great on the glass, but they allow the seventh-most points in the paint this season with 48.4 per game.
