The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Darius Garland vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
A big reason why the Cavaliers have their first winning record since the LeBron James era has been the emergence of Darius Garland in his sophomore season. Playing without Collin Sexton has really allowed Garland to reach his ceiling. Sexton is done for the season with an injury. In 31 games without Sexton, Garland has increased his scoring by +5.6 points and +5.7 usage rate per game.
The Cavaliers are 12-point home favorites against the Thunder, who have lost nine of their last 10 games. Despite the 14-30 record, the Thunder rank 13th in defensive rating and have only allowed their opponents to shoot 44.5% from the field, which ranks 10th in the league. However, Garland has really taken off lately. In his last six games, he is averaging 20.7 points, 12.7 assists, and 50.3 DraftKings points per game.
Top Value: Cameron Payne vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
The value guard that is popping the most on FanDuel is Cameron Payne, with the Suns sitting at 12-point home favorites against the Pacers, who could be without most of their starting lineup tonight. Payne leads all point guards on FanDuel in projected Plus/Minus. Payne has been very productive off of the bench lately, averaging 13.5 points while shooting 53.7% from the field and 42.9% from behind the arc.
Anytime the Suns are projected as double-digit favorites, the status of Chris Paul always is in question as the veteran point guard may take a rest day. With or without Paul in the lineup, the Suns should roll in this matchup. The Pacers rank 21st in Defensive Rating and have allowed their opponents to shoot 46.5% from the field, which ranks 21st in the league. Payne has the upside if Paul sits and/or this game blows out.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Sticking with the Suns is the shooting guard with the highest ceiling on the slate Devin Booker. He will randomly have a game where he simply decides this is his night. That happened two games ago against the Spurs. Booker scored 48 points while shooting 18-for-33 from the field and 5-for-13 from downtown. He had 71.75 DraftKings points and a 46.2% usage rate.
I can’t expect that output every game, but we know Booker has that type of game in his arsenal. Booker is a very streaky player, and he has been on fire lately. Over the last four games, Booker has averaged 35.3 points while attempting 25.3 field goal attempts per game. During that time, he has averaged a 37.9% usage rate. If Booker keeps this aggressive mindset, he is in for a monster game tonight.
Top Value: Aaron Wiggins at Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Targeting a player on the Thunder with an implied total of only 98.5 points against one of the best defensive teams in the league isn’t ideal, but Aaron Wiggins deserves consideration at this price tag. Wiggins has had a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in 10 of his last 14 games. The rookie is starting recently and has averaged 31 minutes per game in his last three games.
The Cavaliers rank third in both Defensive Rating and points allowed as they have given up an average of only 102.8 points per game. The Thunder will struggle as 12-point road underdogs, but Wiggins provides a path to pay up for the only true stud on the slate. He has had over 20 points a few times during this recent 14-game stretch. Wiggins is a sneaky piece that could excel despite the tough matchup.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Khris Middleton vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
One of the most consistent players in the league recently has been Bucks forward Khris Middleton. He has produced a positive Plus/Minus in nine consecutive games on FanDuel. During that time, he has just one game where he failed to reach 40 FanDuel points. Middleton isn’t Giannis, but he is a cheaper way to get exposure to this Bucks team who is playing in the game with the highest total at 233.5 points.
Middleton fills the stat sheet in a lot of categories, but scoring is what he does best. During that nine-game stretch, Middleton is averaging 23.9 points while attempting 16.3 field goals per game. He has just two games over that time where he has failed to score 20 or more points and two games where he has failed to shoot fewer than 15 field goals. He should have no problem filling it up against the Kings, who rank 27th in Defensive Rating and allow their opponents to shoot 46.9% from the field, which ranks third-best in the league.
Top Value: Chris Duarte at Phoenix Suns – $5,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
This is an anticipation play as the Pacers could be without Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert for the second-straight game. In the last Pacers game without Brogdon and LeVert, Chris Duarte led them to an upset victory against the Warriors on the road. He had 27 points while shooting 10-for-16 from the field and added seven rebounds, three assists, and three steals. It was the second time in his last three games where Duarte scored over 47 DraftKings points. Monitor the status of Brogdon and LeVert tonight.
Duarte may be tough to get to on FanDuel regardless of the Pacers’ injuries, but on DraftKings, he has a 97% Bargain Rating. Even if one or both of Brogdon and LeVert are playing, Duarte makes for a solid value play on DraftKings. This is a very similar matchup as the Warriors’ last game. The Suns rank second in Defensive Rating and sixth in Pace. Can the Pacers shock the NBA world again with an upset victory? Duarte will be involved one way or another and will likely play even if this game gets out of hand.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Sacramento Kings – $12,100 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo is in a class of his own in this three-game slate. He is the only player priced above $10,000 on both sites tonight. This slate honestly comes down to play or fade Giannis. Our model, to no surprise, has Giannis with the highest ceiling on the slate. Over the last seven games, Giannis has flourished, averaging 31.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 58.9 DraftKings points per game.
This matchup is incredible for Giannis specifically. The Kings have allowed a league-high 52.6 points per game in the paint this season. The paint is where Giannis lives. He has averaged 15.4 points per game in the paint, which is tied with Nikola Jokic for the league-high. The Bucks have the highest implied total at 120.75 points, and Giannis will be dominating in the paint even more than normal tonight.
Top Value: Richaun Holmes at Milwaukee Bucks – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Richaun Holmes has power forward and center eligibility on FanDuel, but only center eligibility on DraftKings tonight. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, but there are a ton of great value center options. After missing eight games due to injury, Holmes is finally back, and his minutes are starting to ramp up. He played 28 minutes in his last game and had 10 points, three rebounds, and four blocks.
This price tag, especially on DraftKings, is simply too cheap for the upside that Holmes can provide. They are 10-point road underdogs, but even with it being 10 points, this is the closest spread on the slate. The game environment should be fast-paced as the Kings and Bucks both rank in the top eight in Pace.
Note: Richaun Holmes is only C eligible on DraftKings.
Center
Top Ceiling: Jarrett Allen vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $7,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Trivia question – Who leads the league in paint touches this season? I can’t imagine many people answered with Jarrett Allen. Surprisingly enough, Allen leads the league with 12.4 paint touches per game. This undersized Thunder frontcourt is in for a tough battle against Allen and Evan Mobley. Deciding between the two is difficult, but Allen has the higher ceiling in our model tonight.
FanDuel is a better spot to roster Mobley as he has a 95% Bargain Rating. For the season, Allen has been more consistent between the two as he is averaging a double-double with 16.3 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. He has a distinct rebounding advantage in this matchup as the Thunder allow a league-high 48.6 rebounds per game. The Thunder also allow their opponents to average 6.2 blocks per game, which is the second-highest in the league. Allen will dominate the paint.
Top Value: Goga Bitadze at Phoenix Suns – $4,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Center value on this slate is loaded once again. JaVale McGee is popping with Deandre Ayton out, but he has been a bit disappointing lately. Goga Bitadze is the value play that truly can’t be ignored, as the Pacers will be without Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. Bitadze started last game in the Pacers’ upset win over the Warriors and played 31 minutes before getting ejected in the fourth quarter. He finished with 13 points, nine rebounds, and five assists. Bitadze was on pace to play more minutes as well.
With no Ayton, Bitadze will go to work against McGee and Bismack Biyombo for most of the night. The Suns don’t struggle in many areas defensively, but they are below average, rebounding the ball. The Suns rank 22nd in rebounds allowed as they give up 45.5 per game. Bitadze will play enough minutes where he can flirt with a double-double despite the difficult all-around matchup.
