The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tools and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Chris Paul at Washington Wizards – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Seventeen-year veteran Chris Paul is having an incredible year and is on an insanely good run right now. Over the last eight games, Paul is averaging a double-double with 20.6 points and 13.0 assists while shooting 54.5% from the field. During that time, Paul has also averaged 53.2 DraftKings points and 38.8 minutes per game. In those nine games, Paul has yet to play below 37 minutes.
With this spread being relatively large without Bradley Beal playing for the Wizards, Paul’s minutes may dial back, but we can still expect elite production. The Wizards rank 22nd in Defensive Rating and have lost six of their last seven games. Paul has had a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last nine games on FanDuel. He continues to lead the league in assists, averaging 10.5 per game.
Top Value: Tre Mann at Sacramento Kings – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
The Thunder have won three games in a row and have another winnable game on the road against the Kings. Despite having a slate-low 105-point implied total, the Thunder will be our main source of value yet again. They will be playing without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander up until the All-Star break, which will give Tre Mann the start at point guard. He scored a career-high 29 points two games ago.
Mann has seen a slight decrease in his price on DraftKings which makes him our top value point guard. Using our On/Off tool, Mann has a +3.4% usage rate with Gilgeous-Alexander off the floor this season in 419 total minutes. He has averaged 36.5 minutes per game in their last two games and is projected to play 33 minutes tonight. He is a fantastic value play, especially on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: LaMelo Ball vs. Miami Heat – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
LaMelo Ball is listed as a point guard and shooting guard on DraftKings so we’ll slot him here as the highest-ceiling option. He is the highest-rated guard in our Tournament Model as he has been very boom or bust all season long. Over the last five games, Ball has two games scoring 63 or more DraftKings points and one where he only scored 25 DraftKings points. His volatility keeps his salary in check.
Playing against the Heat normally presents a slow, grind it out game, but with how fast Ball and the Hornets play, this game has the second-highest total on the slate at 227.5 points. The Heat still rank 27th in Pace and have allowed the fifth-fewest points with 104.8 per game. Regardless of the matchup, Ball can stuff the stat sheet in all categories and has the second-largest ceiling on the slate.
Top Value: Tyler Herro at Charlotte Hornets – $6,200 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Priced more in the mid-range, Tyler Herro is popping as one of the best guard values on the slate. It is weird seeing him pop as the Heat are getting back to full strength, but Herro is coming off of a game where he had 24 points, five rebounds and five assists while shooting 11-for-20 from the field. Despite coming off the bench, Herro is leading the Heat in usage rate with 29.2% per game.
Another factor that is helping is this matchup against the Hornets. They rank 25th in Defensive Rating and second in Pace this season. They allow opponents to score the third-most points in the league with 114.4 per game. Herro is second in the league in points off the bench this season. He should feast against the second unit of the Hornets and is a cheaper way to get exposure to the Heat.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Charlotte Hornets – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Not only is Herro in a good spot, but so is Jimmy Butler. Just four games ago Butler had 82 DraftKings points, which was surprisingly not his career-high. He finished with a massive triple-double of 37 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 assists. Butler already has four triple-doubles this season, which is tied for his career-high. This is a great spot to showcase that versatility against the Hornets.
The Heat are 3-point road favorites and have an implied total of 115.25 points which is the second-highest on the slate. Butler has the highest ceiling among the small forwards tonight, but is still coming in below quite a few players despite his higher salary. However, this matchup presents a very scary fade. Butler should thrive in this game environment against a very pitiful Hornets defense.
Top Value: CJ Elleby vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
The Trail Blazers seem to be mailing in their season as they just traded away Norman Powell and Robert Covington. They are still playing without Damian Lillard as they have lost four-straight games and are heavy home underdogs tonight. CJ Elleby drew the first start of his career last game and had seven points, eight rebounds, and 22.5 DraftKings points while playing 27 minutes.
Expect the same amount of minutes tonight, and likely a similar output. Elleby had a 12.2% usage rate in his last game as it is tough to find shots playing alongside CJ McCollum and Anfernee Simons. However, the value that Elleby provides in a stars and scrubs build is tough to ignore. The matchup is brutal, but Elleby should see his minutes regardless if this game results in a blowout or not.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Portland Trail Blazers – $12,100 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo is in a class of his own on this slate. He is the highest-priced player and has the biggest ceiling by a wide margin. This slate may come down to playing or fading Giannis tonight. He is coming off of his fourth triple-double of the season, where he had 33 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists. Giannis had over 75 DraftKings points for the fourth time this season.
The Trail Blazers, as I mentioned, lost Powell and Covington, who were two of their better on-ball defenders. They already have a poor defense that ranks 28th in Defensive Rating. This game has the highest total at 229 points and the Bucks are implied to score 119.75 points. Giannis is priced up across both sites tonight, but the fade is risky, especially given the value on this slate.
Top Value: Darius Bazley at Sacramento Kings – $4,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Another Thunder value play that is popping in the models is power forward Darius Bazley. The second-year player has had an average of +9.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last four games while averaging 11.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Not only are the Thunder without Gilgeous-Alexander, but Aaron Wiggins and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are also out.
Bazley is already second on the team with 6.4 rebounds per game, but has really increased his rebounding numbers the past two games without Robinson-Earl with 23 total rebounds. This is a great rebounding matchup for Bazley as the Kings rank 25th in Rebounding Percentage, allowing 46.3 per game. The price tag has come up a bit, but there is still value with going to Bazley tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. New York Knicks – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
With the status of LeBron James up in the air, Anthony Davis is the clear-cut top option at the center position. James has been out for the past four games and is listed as doubtful to play tonight. In those four games the Lakers are just 1-3, but Davis is averaging 29.5 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game. During that time he is shooting 55.4% from the field and is averaging 56.2 DraftKings points per game.
The Knicks present a very difficult and boring matchup as they rank dead last in Pace this season. This game total is the lowest on the slate at 213.5 points as the Lakers are 2-point home favorites. However, with the assumption that James is out, Davis will see more usage. In 16 games without James this season, Davis is averaging a double-double with 25.6 points and 10.7 rebounds per game.
Top Value: Mamadi Diakite at Sacramento Kings – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
You may remember Mamadi Diakite as the post player who dyed his hair blonde on the Virginia Cavaliers team that won the National Championship. This is his second stint in the NBA and he is priced at the stone minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is one of the best value plays on the slate after he had 12 points, seven rebounds, and three blocks while playing a season-high 30 minutes last game.
Diakite is projected to play 28 minutes and be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. With no Robinson-Earl, Diakite got the start last game, so I would expect him to start again tonight. The Kings have allowed the most points in the paint this season with 52.3 per game. Diakite is a fantastic salary-saver on this slate. He is tough to avoid when he allows you to get Giannis into your lineups.
