The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $11,500 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
This slate is absolutely loaded with stud point guards. Luka Doncic is my preferred option at the top as he has the best matchup among the rest. The Memphis Grizzlies rank dead last in Defensive Rating and 11th in Pace this season. They have allowed 112.6 points per game and are still without their star Ja Morant.
Doncic has struggled out of the gates this year. He is averaging 1.49 DraftKings points per game which is the lowest he has had since his rookie season. He has also had a negative Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 11 games on DraftKings. I still like Doncic for his upside on DraftKings in this fantastic matchup, but FanDuel is where I really want to get my exposure. He has a 95% Bargain Rating. Doncic continues to lead the league in usage rate with 36.3%.
Top Value: Dennis Smith Jr. vs. Boston Celtics – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
With Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons, both sidelined tonight due to injury, that opens the door for Dennis Smith Jr. to more than likely get into the starting lineup. Smith Jr. started the second half when Simons went down in their last game but immediately picked up his third foul and didn’t come back into the game until the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers are 1-point underdogs at home tonight despite their injuries, and Smith Jr. is a great source of value.
Smith Jr. has scored over 20 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he hasn’t even shot that well. He is 6-19 in those two games from the field and 1-6 from 3-point range. There is major upside at this price tag, and our model has Smith Jr. projected to play 21 minutes tonight, which I feel is on the conservative side. The biggest thing that has caught my eye is that he is providing peripherals, which are needed on this team without Simons and Lillard.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: CJ McCollum vs. Boston Celtics – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
The next Trail Blazers player who benefits greatly from their injuries is CJ McCollum. He takes on more of the scoring role, which is why I am comfortable playing both McCollum and Smith Jr. in the same lineup. He has averaged 1.4 more points per game without Lillard in the lineup and has played far fewer minutes because of blowouts. With a projected tight game, McCollum has incredible upside even at an elevated salary.
McCollum has also attempted nearly two more field goals per game without Lillard this season. The hit he takes is with his peripherals, where his average drops more than one assist per game and one rebound per game. McCollum is another really good play on FanDuel tonight, where he has a 94% Bargain Rating. The minutes will be there in a close game, and the offense will run through McCollum. He has a very high ceiling tonight.
Top Value: Terence Davis vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $3,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Another value play that benefits from injuries is Terence Davis. Maurice Harkless continues to be out for the Sacramento Kings, while Harrison Barnes is doubtful to play. Davis will likely remain in the starting lineup for the fourth straight game. He has had over 20 DraftKings points in each game during that time, with a high of 38 points.
Davis has a lofty salary on FanDuel, but his price tag on DraftKings doesn’t make much sense. He is only $3,500 and has a Bargain Rating of 99%. Davis has averaged a +12.38 Plus/Minus in his last four games. During that time, he has also averaged a 30.6% usage rate. Those numbers are very rare to find for a salary saver. The Clippers rank fourth in Defensive Rating this season. However, I’m not worried, given the price for Davis on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Portland Trail Blazers – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Why not run it back with Jayson Tatum as you are playing all of these Trail Blazers. In a difficult matchup last night at the Utah Jazz, Tatum finished with 37 points, six rebounds, and five assists for 55 DraftKings points. It was his second-straight game scoring over 50 DraftKings points. He should have no problem building on that tonight as the Trail Blazers rank 29th in Defensive Rating and are giving up 110.2 points per game this season.
Jaylen Brown was out last game due to injury management. Keep an eye on the status of Brown because that will make Tatum an even better play tonight. Without Brown this season, Tatum sees an increase in usage rate of +1.8%, according to our On/Off tool. He has also averaged 29.7 points per game without Brown, compared to 21.2 points per game with Brown this season. Regardless if Brown plays or not, this is still a great spot to target Tatum.
Top Value: DeAndre Bembry vs. Chicago Bulls – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Opposite of Terence Davis, I like DeAndre Bembry more on FanDuel compared to DraftKings tonight. He has a 76% Bargain Rating and has had a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in five of his last six games. The one game he went negative was last night against the Timberwolves when Bembry failed to record a steal or block for just the fourth game all season. Bembry certainly isn’t a sexy play, but on a six-game slate, he does provide some value.
The minutes Bembry has been getting is the most intriguing part of this play. He has started in the Nets last six games. Bembry has averaged 30.3 minutes per game during that stretch and has two boom performances of over 30 DraftKings points. However, he still is playing alongside two high-usage players, which presents bust potential. I recommend keeping Bembry to tournaments-only tonight, but there is upside playing this many minutes.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling:
Kevin Durant vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,300 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
My preferred spend-up option for the Brooklyn Nets continues to be Kevin Durant over James Harden, even though he has a higher price tag. Harden is certainly closing the gap recently, but Durant still leads the Nets in points with 28.5 per game and usage rate with 31.2%. He is also shooting a career-high 53.9% from the field.
The Bulls have the seventh-best Defensive Rating this season and took care of the Nets in their last matchup 118-95. Despite losing by 23 points, Durant played 35 minutes and finished with 38 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists. He had 58.5 DraftKings points in that game. I expect this matchup to be much closer as the Nets are favored by three points, with the game total being the highest on the slate at 222 points.
Durant is much more cost-effective on FanDuel where he has an 89% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Santi Aldama at Dallas Mavericks – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Santi Aldama is certainly not a household name, but he provides more value tonight due to the injury situation for the Memphis Grizzlies. They will be without Kyle Anderson, while Ziaire Williams is listed as doubtful, and Brandon Clarke is questionable. Aldama was the first Grizzlies player off the bench in their history-breaking victory over the OKC Thunder. He played 28 minutes and finished with a double-double on 18 points and 10 rebounds for 40.5 DraftKings points.
I love the salary for Aldama on both sites tonight, especially if Williams and Clarke are both out. However, he is still getting minutes even when one of them is playing. Despite only making three 3-pointers this season, the rookie from Utah has shown that he can stretch the floor with 22 attempts. The Mavericks are the second-highest favorite on the slate, which could bode well for Aldama. He will see minutes regardless if this game blows out or not.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic at Brooklyn Nets – $9,400 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
On a weaker slate for center, Nikola Vucevic stands out above the rest. Vucevic is seeing a rising salary once again, but it is warranted. In his last two games, Vucevic is averaging 28.5 points per game and 10.5 rebounds per game. He has made double-digit field goals during that stretch while also pouring in an average of 5.5 3-pointers per game. Vucevic is shooting 11-15 from downtown in those last two games!
This is a great matchup for Vucevic against the Brooklyn Nets who are playing on a back-to-back. The Nets rank 25th in Rebounding Percentage this season. Vucevic should have no problem going up against LaMarcus Aldridge and company. He has the highest ceiling of any center in our model tonight.
Top Value: Dewayne Dedmon at Milwaukee Bucks – $3,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
The salary for Dewayne Dedmon on DraftKings has yo-yo’d from $3,100 to $4,800 and now sits at $3,700. On FanDuel, he has steadily increased and comes in at $5,800. I don’t understand the drop in price on DraftKings. He has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and makes for one of the best values on the slate.
Dedmon only played 22 minutes last night, but he did not play in the fourth quarter due to the Miami Heat winning by a wide margin. In their previous game, he played 31 minutes, and our model has Dedmon projected for 30 minutes tonight. If Giannis Antetokounmpo was playing, I would be a little concerned of not only foul trouble but also the Heat playing PJ Tucker at center and going to a smaller lineup. However, Antetokounmpo is doubtful to play tonight, which makes me more excited and comfortable getting Dedmon into my lineups.
