The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Fred VanVleet vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Fred VanVleet as a top ceiling point guard play? Yes. The COVID protocols are crazy right now, so the options are very limited. VanVleet has been very good lately. He has scored over 50 DraftKings points in two out of his last three games. The main benefit with VanVleet, however, is the minutes. He leads the league in minutes played with an absurd 38 per game. He rarely comes off the floor.
This Warriors team will look very inexperienced in this game, so you can throw out their top-ranked Defensive Rating and points allowed this season. I will dive deeper into their injuries below with a few value plays, but you will want to get a piece of this Raptors side of the game, and I want to start by doing that with VanVleet. If this game is close at all, VanVleet is going to soar past this price tag.
Top Value: Miles McBride at Boston Celtics – $3,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
The New York Knicks have lost seven of their last nine games but may have struck gold with rookie Miles McBride. The Knicks will be without Immanuel Quickley tonight, and Derrick Rose is questionable after leaving the last game with an injury. Regardless of the Rose news, McBride should be asked to play an increased role. He didn’t come out once in the second half and played a team-high 36 minutes.
The Boston Celtics are coming off of a four-point home loss last night to the Warriors. With how slow the Celtics and Knicks play, it is no surprise this matchup has a total of 210.5 points. If Rose is in, I would expect McBride to get Quickley’s role which was around 20 minutes. However, if Rose is out, it is full speed ahead for McBride tonight, especially on DraftKings with a 96% Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Bradley Beal at Utah Jazz – $9,600 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
Bradley Beal has seen a price hike on DraftKings lately. He is up over $1,000 since Wednesday! I would much rather get to Beal on FanDuel, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. Beal has a usage rate that is down over the past two seasons but is still well above 30% this season.
This matchup on the road against the Utah Jazz will be difficult, but Beal is starting to heat up a little bit lately. He is mainly a scoring-dependent player with average peripherals. Over the last six games, Beal is averaging 25.8 points per game on 19.7 field goal attempts per game. He is playing a very healthy 37 minutes per game during that time as well. This matchup has the highest total on the slate at 222 points which is encouraging for Beal.
Top Value: Moses Moody at Toronto Raptors – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
The first of many Golden State Warriors value players tonight is going to be Moses Moody. He has yet to have a game with a positive Plus/Minus this season, but this is a unique situation. The Warriors are without Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Otto Porter, AND Andre Iguodala. Moody drew the first start of his career last game but only played 10 minutes and went 1-8 from the field.
The eight field goal attempts are very encouraging. Moody had a 29.8% usage rate! This matchup isn’t all that ideal as the Raptors are nine-point favorites at home tonight. They also rank 26th in Pace this season, so they will likely dictate the Pace of this game. This slate is filled with Warriors value plays, but unfortunately hardly any stars to pay up for. I would make sure to get Moody in your cash games.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George at Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,500 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
I feel obligated to put Paul George in this spot even though he hasn’t played in four straight games due to injury and is questionable to play tonight. He is the most expensive player on DraftKings that has any chance to play. However, on FanDuel, he comes in at a great price tag where he has a 98% Bargain Rating.
Overall the Thunder have been pretty solid defensively, even with their young and inexperienced team. However, they are having trouble defending the 3-point line. The Thunder have allowed an average of 39.1 3-point attempts per game, which is the third-highest mark in the league, and they allow 36.5% to be made, which is tied for the fifth-highest. George is capable of getting scorching hot from behind the arc. He can utilize his 34% usage rate, which is the third-highest in the league. Great spot for George is he is active.
Note: Paul George is questionable to play tonight.
Top Value: Chuma Okeke at Brooklyn Nets – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Chuma Okeke has become a popular player lately, and rightfully so. The Orlando Magic have a plethora of players in the Covid protocols. Okeke is coming off of a season-high 39 minutes in which he recorded a double-double on 18 points and 10 rebounds while also getting six steals! He had a ridiculous 53.5 DraftKings points. He is way too cheap on both spots in this spot tonight.
The Brooklyn Nets will be playing without James Harden, Kevin Durant, Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge, and many more. They do rank fifth in Defensive Rating this season, but this situation is completely different with who will be on the floor tonight. Another benefit to Okeke’s production will be not only Mo Bamba being out, but Wendell Carter Jr. is also doubtful. Okeke could post another double-double.
Note: Chuma Okeke is only PF eligible on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Boston Celtics – $10,100 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
If Paul George is unable to play tonight, Julius Randle will be the only option you can play over $10,000 for on DraftKings tonight. That is how crazy this slate is! This spot against the Celtics is decent, but nothing great, and Randle hasn’t been anything special lately. On FanDuel is where I would get my action to Randle. He has had a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last nine games and has a 97% Bargain Rating.
The New York Knicks have a lot of players who are either injured or in the Covid protocols. The one constant has been Julius Randle, who leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists this season. He may be popular on this slate by default as the only spend-up option.
Top Value: Nemanja Bjelica at Toronto Raptors – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
The Golden State Warriors player, in my opinion, with the most upside tonight is Nemanja Bjelica. He has become a real playmaker for this Warriors offense and will get even more opportunities to showcase that tonight, given the number of players not in the lineup.
We have seen the upside that Bjelica can show already this season. He has two games where he scored over 30 DraftKings points, and both of which were when the Warriors were fully healthy. Bjelica hasn’t played more than 26 minutes this season, which he did on opening night. Our model has him projected to play 22 minutes tonight, which I think is well on the conservative side. He is a great value play.
Center
Top Ceiling: Jarrett Allen at Milwaukee Bucks – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
There isn’t a high-priced center like we normally see, so we will spend almost near the top with Jarrett Allen as our top ceiling center. In competitive games, Allen is playing well over 30 minutes per game. There is a chance he could also be playing without fellow big man Evan Mobley who is questionable tonight. Either way, I love Allen’s upside in this matchup against the Bucks tonight.
The Milwaukee Bucks are a completely different team, with Giannis Antetokounmpo not in the lineup. They also could be missing Khris Middleton, who is questionable to play tonight. Without Giannis, the Bucks have virtually zero interior defense presence. They have a 110.4 Defensive Rating without Giannis on the floor compared to 107.9 with him on the floor. Allen should feast on this Bucks frontcourt.
Top Value: Robin Lopez at Brooklyn Nets – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
Not going to lie, I didn’t think I would be writing about Robin Lopez this season, but here we are! As I mentioned earlier, the Magic will be without Mo Bamba and likely Wendell Carter Jr., which will open up tons of playing time for Lopez. He had 18 points and seven rebounds while shooting 9/13 from the field in their game last night.
Usually, I will look at the matchup and make up an excuse NOT to play Lopez, but the Nets have plenty of injuries and players out, so they are forced to play Nic Claxton and the corpse of Blake Griffin. The Nets have allowed 10.9 offensive rebounds per game, which is the seventh-worst number in the league. It is pretty crazy, but Robin Lopez is a fantastic value option on tonight’s slate.
