The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Steph Curry – $11,400 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Don’t let his last two games scoring output turn you off Chef Curry — he’s still just as lethal as ever.
Curry totaled just 35 points across his last two contests, but in that span, he also posted 15 assists, 13 boards, two swats, and two swipes, showing that he’s capable of providing strong value even when he’s not going off in the scoring column.
Six days ago, his salary was $10,500 on FanDuel, so you’re getting a bargain already, but because of the enormous price discrepancy between DraftKings and FanDuel, he gets a 98% Bargain Rating on that site.
Top Value: Jrue Holiday vs. New York Knicks – $6,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Holiday has only logged 43 minutes this season, but in those minutes, he’s totaled 28 points, six assists, five rebounds, and a steal.
He’s projected to play 32 minutes in his return tonight, and Holiday’s elite two-way play gives him a 49-point ceiling as a guy projected to provide at least 4.9 Points/Salary on both sites.
Holiday is a little pricier than our typical value options, but a player doesn’t need to be cheap to be considered a value.
When you can get a discount on an elite player, you’ve got to take advantage of those savings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Bradley Beal – $9,500 DraftKings, $ FanDuel
The early season has been rough on Beal, who’s currently averaging 24.4 points on 23.3 shots. His efficiency has been uncharacteristically dreadful, but the opportunities have certainly been there.
Beal is bound to break out of his shooting slump, and his ceiling remains as high as ever in a contest with Memphis that features a friendly game environment.
Beal is still a tournament play, but he’s one of just a handful of guys on the slate capable of scoring 60 on any given night.
Top Value: Terry Rozier – $6,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Another salary-saver on FanDuel tonight, Rozier comes in as a huge value. Over his last three games, he’s averaged 14.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.5 stocks while playing over 33 minutes per contest.
The Hornets/Kings game tops the nightly over/unders with a whopping 230.0.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George at Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
George has been huge this season without Kawhi Leonard in the mix, but he’s gone absolutely bonkers over his last three. In that span, Playoff P averaged 35.3 points, 7.7 boards, 5.7 dimes, and 2.7 stocks.
Even at his lofty price, he gets a Leverage Rating of 90% on DraftKings and 93% on FanDuel because of his massive ceiling. Keep going to PG13 while he’s hot.
Top Value: Svi Myhailiuk vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Scottie Barnes (thumb) is scheduled to return from a two-game absence tonight, but Mykhailiuk has seen enough playing time and played well enough to remain in the Raptors rotation.
In his last three games (two starts), he’s averaged 15.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.0 steal over 30.7 minutes. That production and his affordable salary make him a perfect low-cost GPP target on tonight’s slate.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. New York Knicks – $11,800 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
The Greek Freak has averaged 27/10/6 with 3.5 stocks this season, so there should be no surprise that he’s our top option at PF tonight.
In two games against the Knicks last season, he averaged 25.5 points, 11.5 boards, 7.5 dimes, and 2.0 steals, and he gets a quality 1.81 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 3.11 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Top Value: Jarred Vanderbilt vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Excluding his dud against the Nuggets, Vanderbilt has been quite productive in his last three games, averaging 11.0 points, 9.7 boards, and 1.7 assists while logging at least 26 minutes in each contest.
He’s quite the bargain on DraftKings (94% Bargain Rating) and makes a fine play on FanDuel as well.
Center
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $10,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Towns is a monster on both ends of the court, capable of posting huge double-doubles with elite defensive numbers to boot. He should have plenty of chances to do that against the Clippers when two of the top-10 teams in terms of pace square off tonight.
Towns has continued to put up strong numbers despite shooting just under 41% from the field over his last three games. He’s typically a 50% type of guy, so a positive regression tonight would be highly beneficial for his value. He’s one of a few players in the NBA with 70 fantasy-point upside.
Top Value: Drew Eubanks at Orlando Magic – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Jakob Poeltl (COVID-19) will miss another game tonight, which means Eubanks should be in the starting lineup. He played well in the starting lineup Wednesday and posted 10 points, five rebounds, and three swats in 19 minutes.
Similar production can be expected tonight, making Eubanks our top value on the slate.
