The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $11,400 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Certainly, seeing Stephen Curry as the top ceiling point guard is not a surprise, but let’s dive a little deeper into why he makes for such a great play in this matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers. Something about seeing this Trail Blazers team brings out the best in Curry. In his career, he has scored the second-most DraftKings points per game against them.
Since 2013, Curry has had over 53 DraftKings points in eight of his 12 games at home against the Trail Blazers, with a high of 73.8 DraftKings points in their last meeting in Golden State. This game currently has a 6-point spread with a game total of 225 points. The line is moving towards the Trail Blazers, which is a good sign this game could stay close. The Trail Blazers currently rank 28th in Defensive Rating at 111, but that number drops from 107 to 119 when they play on the road.
There is so much to like here for Curry. Don’t be intimidated by the price tag.
Top Value: Davion Mitchell at Los Angeles Lakers – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
The value at point guard right now is looking a little bleak, but there is one player that caught my eye due to his price drop. This is the lowest price Davion Mitchell has been on DraftKings all season. He has an 86% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is coming off of a game where he played 30 minutes and had 16 points on 6-11 from the field and 23 DraftKings points.
Despite being such a good defender, it is surprising that he plays several games without any steals. In his last three games, he hasn’t recorded one steal. However, he gets a juicy steal matchup against the Lakers and Russell Westbrook, who leads the league in turnovers with 4.9 per game. Not only does he have steal upside in this matchup, but the Lakers have also allowed the second-most points in the league with 113.2 per game and rank second in Pace. Mitchell should be active.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine at Orlando Magic – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Coming off of a loss against the worst team in the league (Houston Rockets), Zach LaVine, and the Chicago Bulls should be a little more focused in this matchup against another pitiful team in the Orlando Magic. The Bulls are 9.5-point favorites on the road, while the Magic are 1-7 at home this season. LaVine has had a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games.
Despite his poor recent play, this is a great bounce-back spot for LaVine as the Magic rank 29th in Defensive Rating allowing 110.6 points per game. LaVine leads the Bulls in usage this season with 31%. He also leads the Bulls in points with 26.1 per game and field goal attempts with 19.7 per game. Our model has LaVine as our highest-rated shooting guard on FanDuel tonight as he has a 92% Bargain Rating. LaVine should have no trouble getting his points and shot attempts in this matchup.
Top Value: Malik Beasley at Charlotte Hornets – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
One of my favorite value plays on the board tonight is Malik Beasley. After Patrick Beverley went down five minutes into their last game against the Miami Heat, Beasley was forced into action early and put together a fantastic performance. Beasley finished the game with a season-high 29 points shooting 9-19 from the field, making five 3-pointers in 38 minutes.
Beverley is out tonight, and Josh Okogie is questionable to play, so Beasley could draw the start in this game. Regardless of whether he starts or not, he should be in line for big minutes against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. The Hornets have given up the third-most points this season, allowing 112.4 per game. They are also allowing the fourth-most 3-pointers attempted per game. That is Beasley’s bread and butter. This game also has a healthy total of 226 points. I love this spot for Beasley.
Note: Malik Beasley is SG/SF eligible on FanDuel, but only SG eligible on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at San Antonio Spurs – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
After back-to-back struggling games for Jayson Tatum, I expect him to get back on track against the San Antonio Spurs, who have lost six straight games. After making an average of five 3-pointers in his previous three games, Tatum has shot just 2-18 from downtown in the last two games. He still has the second-highest ceiling behind LeBron James, who may not play tonight and has to defer his usage to Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook. Tatum is sixth in usage rate with 32.7%.
A little surprising from previous seasons, but the Spurs actually rank fifth in pace this season. The Spurs have also allowed the sixth-most points this season with 110.8 per game while also allowing the third most points in the paint with 48.2 per game. This isn’t a great Gregg Popovich-led defense anymore. I trust Tatum to get back on track in this spot tonight.
Top Value: Josh Giddey vs. Washington Wizards – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
I view Josh Giddey as a “value” play tonight, despite a higher price tag than normal. His salary is actually in the mid-range on both sites tonight, but I just can’t get away from this rookie’s upside without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup. In two games without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor, Giddey has averaged 17 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists.
Giddey has a positive Plus/Minus in each of his last six games while he has scored 14 or more points and has had seven or more rebounds in each game. With Gilgeous-Alexander out, Giddey becomes the primary ball handler which has really ramped up his assists lately. He has had eight assists in each of his last two games. I love the triple-double upside that Giddey provides tonight. The Wizards have been surprisingly good defensively, but Giddey is playing too well to ignore.
Note: Josh Giddey is only SG eligible on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Denver Nuggets – $12,200 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
With a few really good value plays on this slate, we should have enough money to spend up to the top and get Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis feels like a must on FanDuel, where he has recorded a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +9.09 in his last five games, including a game where he only played 23 minutes against the Orlando Magic because they won by 31 points.
The Bucks are currently 3.5-point favorites tonight on the road in Denver. Playing in Denver is normally very difficult, but with how many injuries they have right now, the Bucks definitely have the upper hand in this matchup. The Nuggets have lost five straight games, which is their longest losing streak since their 2016-17 season. For the season, Giannis ranks in the top five in points, rebounds, and usage rate. With how well he is playing lately and how much value we have, Giannis is a great play.
Top Value: Brandon Clarke vs. Atlanta Hawks – $3,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Finally, we get to a player who is in the game with the highest total on the slate at 226.5 points. I bet you didn’t think it would be Brandon Clarke. He feels underpriced on DraftKings, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating. Clarke has scored double-digit points in four of his last five games while having nine and eight rebounds in his last two outings. He still has yet to capture a double-double in any game this season, but he is close. Clarke also has played 26 minutes in his last two games.
This price tag on Clarke provides a lot of value tonight, especially when we have some expensive studs we need to pay up for. He has an average Plus/Minus of +8.14 in his last five games, with his minutes ramping up. The Hawks are 10th in Rebounding Percentage this season as they have only allowed 43.6 rebounds per game. However, they rank 25th in Defensive Rating and 26th in points allowed in the paint this season. Clarke is a cheap way to get a piece of this high total.
Center
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns at Charlotte Hornets – $9,500 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
With the status of Nikola Jokic still up in the air, I want to move down in salary a little bit and set my eyes on Karl-Anthony Towns, who seems criminally priced on this slate. Towns has a fantastic matchup against an undersized Charlotte Hornets team who plays at the third-fastest pace in the league. They also rank fourth this season in points allowed in the paint.
Towns had one of the worst starts to an NBA game that you will see last time out. He had three fouls in the first five minutes of action and didn’t touch the floor for the rest of the first half. The Hornets could be shorthanded at center tonight. Mason Plumlee is questionable to play, and PJ Washington only played six minutes last game in his first game back after a three-week absence due to injury. This is a great spot that could get even better if we hear that Plumlee is unable to go tonight.
I love Towns on both sites today, but especially on FanDuel, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Jakob Poeltl vs. Boston Celtics – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
After missing seven games due to injury, Jakob Poeltl has played in three straight games for the struggling San Antonio Spurs, who have lost six in a row. In case you forgot, Poeltl was incredible to start the season. In the first five games, Poeltl averaged 15.6 points per game and 11.2 rebounds per game while scoring 39.2 DraftKings points per game. During that time, Poeltl had an average Plus/Minus of +11.93. His salary on DraftKings even got up to $7,200. This is a major discount.
This matchup against the Celtics completely changes without their starting center Robert Williams on the floor who is out once again tonight. They have a Defensive Rating of 105.3 with Williams on the floor, compared to a 112.5 Defensive Rating when he is off the floor. Williams leads the Celtics in rebounds with 9.6 per game and blocks with 1.8 per game. This total is only at 214.5 points tonight, but don’t forget about Poeltl when building your lineups, as he provides incredible upside.
